Open side-bar Menu
 The AEC Lens

Archive for November, 2015

U.S. Economy and Construction Markets – Executive Summary for Greenbuild

Friday, November 13th, 2015

Article source: CMDGroup

  • Globally, the U.S. economy is outperforming all others.
  • Europe is still sluggish and the ECB (European Central Bank) may embark on more quantitative easing. Likewise Japan and its central bank. China’s monetary agency has been lowering interest rates to stimulate growth.
  • In the mid-00s, China accounted for 40% to 50% of world demand for most commodities. With China’s slowdown, prices for raw materials worldwide are in the doldrums.
  • The present economic forecast can be labeled a ‘throwback’ in the sense that it’s similar to the 1990s and earlier when the U.S. always led growth internationally.
  • Furthermore, in those ‘old’ days, U.S. prospects were limited by large-volume foreign energy imports. Now, thanks to domestic fracking, that handicap has been lifted.
  • The U.S. monthly foreign trade deficit (annualized) has shrunk from a range of -$600 to -$800 (billions) to -$400 to -$600 (billions). The reduction is quite positive for GDP.
  • China’s growth has dimmed from a range of +10% to +12% to an ‘official figure’ of +6.5%. Many analysts believe the nation’s annual advance may truly be closer to +3.5%.
  • In an unprecedented turnaround, there have been several months this year when the U.S. has recorded a trade surplus with both OPEC and Saudi Arabia. A cause for headlines.
  • The Federal Reserve will likely begin to hike the federal funds rate in December. The increments over the next couple of years will almost certainly be tiny (100 basis points at most each year, where 100 basis points = 1.00%).
  • When the U.S. economy is functioning on all cylinders, annual ‘real’ (i.e., adjusted for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) growth is +3.5%. From 2015 through 2017, probably the best that can be hoped for is +2.0% to +2.5%.


October’s Jobs Report: Terrific for U.S.; Maybe Marvelous for Canada

Friday, November 6th, 2015

Article source: CMDGroup

There were worries after the issuance of labor market reports for August and September that indicated month-to-month job creation in the U.S. was slowing to +150,000 or less.

October’s data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) sends those clouds scurrying away.

The BLS says the latest net increase in jobs was +271,000, the greatest gain in any month so far this year. It lifts the average in 2015, with only November and December still remaining, to +206,000.

While 2014’s monthly average, January to October, was somewhat faster, at +236,000, a figure of +200,000 or higher warrants an enthusiastic response.

America’s jobless rate now sits at 5.0%, a marginal decline from September’s 5.1%, but more significantly down versus October 2014’s 5.7%.

Unless some other statistics on the U.S. economy (e.g., retail trade) come in far worse than expected, the Federal Reserve will now almost assuredly begin to take action on interest rates at the December meeting of its Open Market Committee (FOMC).


Where Job Prospects are Brightest and Home Ownership is Cheapest

Friday, November 6th, 2015

Article source: CMDGroup

Tables 1 and 2 accompanying this Economy at a Glance compare labor markets with home prices in major U.S. and Canadian cities.

The reason for conducting this analysis can be summed up succinctly. It shows where job prospects are brightest while home ownership is cheapest.

The labor market ‘composite’ ranking has been based on an assessment of two criteria: year-over-year employment growth (from fastest to slowest) and unemployment rates (from lowest to highest).

Median or average home prices (and their year-over-year percentage changes) can be found at the web sites of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

It would be interesting to draw a line connecting every city to its doppelganger in the tables, but that would yield a confusing blizzard. Therefore, only ones in support of this EAAG’s headline are shown.

From the U.S. table, it’s clear that San Jose (2) and San Francisco (5) have strong labor markets that are accompanied by high home prices – i.e., on the right side of the table, they have corresponding rankings of (1) and (2) respectively.


GRAPHISOFT: ARCHICAD download 30-day FREE trial
Bentley: YII 2016
TurboCAD pro : Start at $299 - Countless CAD add-ons, plug-ins and more.

Internet Business Systems © 2016 Internet Business Systems, Inc.
595 Millich Dr., Suite 216, Campbell, CA 95008
+1 (408)-337-6870 — Contact Us, or visit our other sites:
TechJobsCafe - Technical Jobs and Resumes EDACafe - Electronic Design Automation GISCafe - Geographical Information Services  MCADCafe - Mechanical Design and Engineering ShareCG - Share Computer Graphic (CG) Animation, 3D Art and 3D Models
  Privacy Policy