The AEC Lens
Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for … More »
Canadian Put-in-place Construction Forecasts: Spring 2016 Edition (Part 1)
February 25th, 2016 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: CMDGroup
Based on the latest ‘actuals’ from Statistics Canada, the spring 2016 forecasts, out to 2019, of construction capital spending − also known as put-in-place investment – have just been calculated by CanaData.
Versus the fall of 2015, the year-over-year projections have mostly been scaled back.
Grand total constant dollar (i.e., adjusted for inflation) construction will decline a further 3.1% in 2016 after a drop of 3.4% in 2015. 2017 will see a slight improvement of +1.0%, followed by +3.5% in 2018 and +4.3% in 2019.
In the fall of last year, the comparable percentage changes were: 2015, -2.2%; 2016, +0.5%; 2017, +2.7%; and 2018, +4.1%. There was no 2019 forecast at that time.
In current dollars, 2015’s grand total was $285 billion, or -2.4% compared with $292 billion in 2014.
After a further 1.8% decline in this current year, 2016 will chalk up a volume of slightly less than $280 billion.
Current dollar gains of 2.9% and 5.6% in 2017 and 2018 respectively will finally lift the total dollar value of all Canadian put-in-place construction activity above $300 billion two years from now.
An additional 6.4% current-dollar increase in 2019 will yield $323 billion in construction capital spending three years into the future.
At the web site shown here (please insert link), there are 14 tables setting out the put-in-place actual and forecast figures, 2009 to 2019.
The type-of-structure breakdowns are as follows: grand total (‘all new’); residential; non-residential building; commercial; industrial; institutional; and engineering.
Each of the foregoing seven type-of-structure breakdowns has its own tables expressed in current dollars and constant dollars – hence 14 tables in all.
Cansim is Statistics Canada’s on-line data base. The assorted Cansim tables that have been the sources for the historical volume and price index numbers are: 026-0016; 026-0013; 026-0017; and 029-0045.
The forecasts, as calculated by CanaData, have been driven primarily by four ‘tweaks’ in the underlying dynamics of the Canadian economy.
Those four shifts will be the subject of the next EAAG.
Category: CMD Group