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Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for … More »

November Jobs Creation: U.S. +155,000; Canada +94,000

 
December 7th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect

Article source: ConstructConnect

There was a dramatic reversal in fortune on the jobs front between the U.S. and Canada in November.

November Jobs Creation: U.S. +155,000; Canada +94,000 Graphic

It wasn’t that the U.S. number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was so bad. At +155,000, it slowed from +237,000 the month before, but it was still a solid increase.

Rather, it was that Canada set a blistering pace. Statistics Canada’s figure of +94,000 jobs was the biggest monthly increase in more than six-and-a-half years, dating back to March 2012 (also +94,000).

Canada’s unemployment rate in November improved to 5.6%, the lowest it’s been in more than 40 years.

America’s unemployment rate stayed the same in November as in October, but keep in mind that the current level of 3.7% is the tightest in almost 50 years.

Canada may have had a better November than the U.S., but for year-to-date 2018, it’s been the latter that has been vastly outperforming the former.

U.S. monthly average jobs creation so far this year has been +206,000, +12.7% above last year’s comparable figure of +183,000.

Canada’s monthly average jobs bump to date in 2018 has been only +14,000, -58% versus January-November 2017’s climb of +33,000.

The slight softening in U.S. jobs creation was foreshadowed by weekly initial jobless claims numbers that were on a gradual incline. After touching a bottom of just 202,000 for the week ending September 8, 2018, they have been inching upwards to exceed 230,000 for the latest two reporting periods.

In November, the U.S. total jobs increase was spread across six industrial sectors: ‘education and health’, +34,000; ‘professional and business services’, +32,000; ‘manufacturing’, +27,000; ‘transportation and warehousing’, +25,000; ‘retail trade’, +18,000; and ‘leisure and hospitality’, +15,000.

Construction, with a mediocre gain of +5,000 jobs, did not make the list of frontrunners.

The payroll pickup of +35,000 in ‘education and health’ came almost entirely in ‘health care’ alone (+32,000). Hospitals (+13,000) went on a hiring binge.

Within ‘professional and business services’ (+32,000), three sub-sector leaders were: ‘temporary help services’, +8,000; ‘computer systems and design services’ (also +8,000); and ‘architectural and engineering services’, +6,000.

In ‘transportation and warehousing’ (+25,000), courier and messenger firms raised staffing by +10,000 jobs. They are undoubtedly thinking ahead to the gift-giving holiday season.

Xmas may also be the reason the number of jobs in retail shot up in November (+18,000), with ‘general merchandise stores’ (+39,000) being particularly eager to acquire additional personnel.

The total number of government jobs in the U.S. in November shrank by 6,000. Washington (+3,000) and local (+4,000) government were on the watch for more workers, but they couldn’t overcome the payroll contraction at the state level (-13,000).

With the heat turned down on hiring in November, compensation advances also eased a little.

For production and non-supervisory workers (i.e., omitting bosses) throughout the economy, average hourly and weekly earnings were both +3.2% year over year. For construction workers as a subset of ‘all jobs’, their earnings rewards were a bit better, at +4.2% hourly and +3.4% weekly.

Including bosses, November’s earnings gains were +3.1% hourly and +2.8% weekly for ‘all jobs’ and +3.7% hourly and +2.9% weekly for construction workers. All the foregoing earnings advances, however, were either even with or below what were recorded in October.

The Federal Reserve has modified its stance on raising interest rates to put less emphasis on returning to ‘neutral’ (i.e., 3.00% for the federal funds rate from a current range of 2.00% to 2.25%). Instead, it will favor decision-making that is ‘data driven’.

The relaxation evident in November’s labor report (i.e., with respect to hiring and wage increases) releases some of the demand and inflationary pressures that had accumulated in the super-charged U.S. jobs market.

Early in 2019, it may be the Bank of Canada that has its feet to the fire more than the Fed with respect to ‘data-driven’ interest rate policy. The +94,000-change in jobs north of the border in November was composed almost entirely of higher-paying and more stable permanent positions (+90,000). The part-time jobs increase was only +4,000.

Also, it was the private sector (+86,000 jobs) that stepped up more than the public sector (+8,000).

The number of construction workers in Canada in November rose by +15,000. Production-line employees did not fare as well. The payroll of the Canadian manufacturing sector drifted sideways. The impacts of the layoffs announced by General Motors for plants in both the U.S. and Canada will be delayed until the end of next year.

Among Canada’s provinces, the biggest month-to-month gains in employment in November were recorded in Quebec (+26,000), Alberta (+24,000), Ontario (+20,000) and British Columbia (+16,000).

On a year-over-year jobs-increase basis, Prince Edward Island (+3.6%) has been the leader, followed by Saskatchewan (+2.7%), Alberta (+2.6%) and B.C. (+1.7%).

Currently, B.C. is the province with the lowest unemployment rate (4.4%). Next in line are Quebec (5.4%), Saskatchewan (5.5%) and Ontario (5.6%).

Cannabis-related Jobs:

You know you’re living in extraordinary times when there’s a whole section in Statistics Canada’s latest jobs report devoted to cannabis-related employment. Non-medicinal cannabis usage has been legal in Canada since October 17th of this year.

Employment in the industry has risen to 10,400 jobs from less than 2,000 a year ago. Slightly more than half of cannabis-related jobs are in agriculture. Other aligned positions are mainly in education, health care and retail.

The median age of cannabis workers is younger than for all workers, 35 compared with 40.

Finally, more than half of all ‘cannabis-related’ employees reside in Ontario, the province with the highest concentration of licensed producers.

Construction Jobs Regionally by Level and Change, U.S. and Canada

 
December 6th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect

Tables 1 through 3 accompanying this article detail the latest (October 2018) statistics on construction employment regionally in the U.S. and Canada.

Construction Jobs Regionally by Level and Change, U.S. and Canada Graphic

Table 1 is a ranking of states, D.C. and Puerto Rico for the U.S. and provinces and territories for Canada by construction employment levels.

Table 2 is a ranking of states, D.C. and Puerto Rico for the U.S. and provinces and territories for Canada according to year-over-year (y/y) nominal changes in construction employment levels.

Table 3 is a ranking of states, D.C. and Puerto Rico for the U.S. and provinces and territories for Canada by y/y percentage changes in number of construction jobs.

With respect to number of construction jobs (Table 1), the four most populous states in America are the frontrunners. California (874,000) is in first place, followed by Texas (774,000), Florida (553,000) and New York (415,000).

After New York, there’s a sizable step down to fifth-place Pennsylvania (266,000).

There are six other states with construction levels exceeding 200,000 – Illinois (243,000); Ohio (238,000); North Carolina (222,000); Washington (218,000); Georgia (+207,000); and Virginia (206,000).

(By the way, how populous are California, Texas, N.Y. and Florida? Combined, they account for the residences of one out of every three Americans.)

In Canada, Ontario (529,000 construction jobs) leads the pack by a wide margin. There is little separation, however, between the next three highest-ranking provinces – Quebec (253,000); Alberta (249,000) and British Columbia (237,000).

If one were to compare states and provinces, Ontario would be positioned in fourth spot, a little behind Florida but considerably ahead of New York.

Table 1: U.S. and Canadian Construction Employment
U.S. States – Construction Employment
Oct. 2018 – Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data
(3-month moving averages placed in latest month)
Rank State No. of Workers
1 California 874,067
2 Texas 774,267
3 Florida 552,767
4 New York 415,033
5 Pennsylvania 265,600
6 Illinois 243,333
7 Ohio 238,400
8 North Carolina 221,567
9 Washington 218,433
10 Georgia 206,700
11 Virginia 206,067
12 Michigan 186,433
13 Colorado 176,167
14 Massachusetts 169,333
15 Maryland 166,000
16 Arizona 165,900
17 New Jersey 153,633
18 Indiana 152,500
19 Louisiana 149,600
20 Minnesota 136,700
21 Wisconsin 132,733
22 Missouri 127,500
23 Tennessee 125,333
24 Oregon 112,567
25 Utah 105,200
26 South Carolina 98,900
27 Nevada 94,533
28 Alabama 88,333
29 Iowa 86,100
30 Kentucky 79,067
31 Oklahoma 78,967
32 Connecticut 66,633
33 Kansas 62,933
34 Nebraska 53,933
35 Arkansas 53,733
36 Idaho 50,133
37 New Mexico 49,767
38 Mississippi 43,600
39 West Virginia 36,833
40 Hawaii 36,433
41 Montana 31,400
42 North Dakota 30,867
43 New Hampshire 30,800
44 Maine 30,633
45 South Dakota 25,433
46 Delaware 23,833
47 Wyoming 22,300
48 Rhode Island 20,300
49 Puerto Rico 19,833
50 Alaska 17,267
51 Vermont 16,733
52 District of Columbia 16,267
Canadian Provinces – Construction Employment
Oct. 2018 – Seasonally Adjusted (SA)
Rank Province No. of Workers
1 Ontario 528,800
2 Quebec 252,800
3 Alberta 248,500
4 British Columbia 237,400
5 Atlantic Region 80,900
6 Saskatchewan 50,700
7 Manitoba 46,400
Figures for Delaware, D.C. and Hawaii include mining & logging as well as construction.
Data for Canada’s northern territories is not available.
Data sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Statistics Canada (14-10-0355-01).
Table: ConstructConnect.

Moving on to Table 2, Texas (+54,000) has managed the biggest increase in number of construction jobs y/y, followed by Florida (+49,000) and California (+36,000). But Georgia (+21,000) and Arizona (+17,000) have surpassed New York (+15,000).

Mississippi, Puerto Rico, South Carolina and Kentucky have experienced minor drops of less than one thousand in construction employment. New Jersey, though, has seen a substantial decline (-6,900).

In Canada, Quebec (+6,500) has been the winner in nominal jobs creation, with B.C. (+5,400) in hot pursuit. Ontario’s performance (+1,200) has been relatively anemic.

Table 2: U.S. and Canadian Nominal Change in Construction Employment
U.S. States – Nominal Change in Construction Employment
OCT. 2018 vs OCT. 2017 – Based on NSA Data
Rank State +/- No. of Workers
1 Texas 53,500
2 Florida 49,400
3 California 36,200
4 Georgia 21,300
5 Arizona 16,933
6 New York 14,800
7 Michigan 11,967
8 Washington 10,833
9 Oregon 10,167
10 North Carolina 9,800
11 Nevada 9,467
12 Indiana 9,267
13 Virginia 9,133
14 Massachusetts 9,067
15 Ohio 8,467
16 Wisconsin 8,333
17 Illinois 8,233
18 Colorado 7,567
19 Minnesota 6,700
20 Iowa 5,867
21 Connecticut 5,000
22 Pennsylvania 4,167
23 Utah 3,533
24 Tennessee 3,100
25 New Hampshire 3,067
25 New Mexico 3,067
27 Idaho 2,400
28 Alabama 2,300
29 Louisiana 2,200
30 Montana 2,033
31 West Virginia 1,933
32 Kansas 1,633
33 Delaware 1,567
34 Arkansas 1,533
35 South Dakota 1,433
35 Wyoming 1,433
37 North Dakota 1,400
38 Nebraska 1,300
39 Rhode Island 933
40 Maine 900
41 Maryland 833
42 District of Columbia 633
43 Missouri 467
44 Vermont 333
45 Alaska 200
46 Oklahoma 133
47 Hawaii 67
48 Mississippi -67
49 Puerto Rico -300
50 South Carolina -700
51 Kentucky -800
52 New Jersey -6,900
Canadian Provinces – Nominal change in
Construction Employment
oct. 2018 vs oct. 2017 – Based on SA Data
Rank Province +/- No. of Workers
1 Quebec 6,500
2 British Columbia 5,400
3 Alberta 2,700
4 Ontario 1,200
5 Saskatchewan -500
6 Atlantic Region -1,200
7 Manitoba -1,600
Figures for Delaware, D.C. and Hawaii include mining & logging as well as construction.
Data for Canada’s northern territories is not available.
Data sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Statistics Canada (14-10-0355-01).
Table: ConstructConnect.

From Table 3, there have been four states with double-digit y/y percentage jumps in construction employment – Georgia (+11.5%); Arizona (+11.4%); Nevada and New Hampshire (each +11.1%).

Table 3 includes a couple of extra features, − two horizontal lines, one dashed and the other solid. The jurisdictions lying above the dashed line have recorded percentage increases faster than for the whole construction sector nationwide (+4.7%).

The jurisdictions ‘north’ of the solid line have achieved percentage-change construction jobs growth that has been more rapid than the country-wide all-jobs advance of +1.7%. (‘All jobs’ is for construction, manufacturing and a multitude of services-related activities.)

To better see the dichotomy between jurisdictions above and below the solid vertical line, click on the following link, which will lead you to two maps – “Maps – Georgia Best and New Jersey Worst for Construction Jobs Growth“.

In Canada, the regional percentage increases in construction employment have been nowhere near as outsized as in the U.S. Quebec (+2.6%) has done best, followed by B.C. (+2.3%) and Alberta (+1.1%).

Ontario (+0.2%), apparently wishing to take a breather, has stepped out of the parade. Manitoba (-3.3%) has packed up its gym bag and gone home for a nap.

Table 3: U.S. and Canadian % Change in Construction Employment
U.S. States – % Change in Construction Employment
oct. 2018 vs oct. 2017 – Based on NSA Data
Rank State +/- change No. of Workers
1 Georgia 11.5%
2 Arizona 11.4%
3 Nevada 11.1%
3 New Hampshire 11.1%
5 Oregon 9.9%
6 Florida 9.8%
7 Connecticut 8.1%
8 Texas 7.4%
9 Iowa 7.3%
10 Delaware 7.0%
11 Michigan 6.9%
11 Montana 6.9%
11 Wyoming 6.9%
14 Wisconsin 6.7%
15 New Mexico 6.6%
16 Indiana 6.5%
17 South Dakota 6.0%
18 Massachusetts 5.7%
19 West Virginia 5.5%
20 Minnesota 5.2%
20 Washington 5.2%
22 Idaho 5.0%
23 North Dakota 4.8%
23 Rhode Island 4.8%
25 North Carolina 4.6%
25 Virginia 4.6%
27 Colorado 4.5%
28 California 4.3%
29 District of Columbia 4.1%
30 New York 3.7%
30 Ohio 3.7%
32 Illinois 3.5%
32 Utah 3.5%
34 Maine 3.0%
35 Arkansas 2.9%
36 Alabama 2.7%
36 Kansas 2.7%
38 Nebraska 2.5%
38 Tennessee 2.5%
40 Vermont 2.0%
41 Pennsylvania 1.6%
42 Louisiana 1.5%
43 Alaska 1.2%
44 Maryland 0.5%
45 Missouri 0.4%
46 Hawaii 0.2%
46 Oklahoma 0.2%
48 Mississippi -0.2%
49 South Carolina -0.7%
50 Kentucky -1.0%
51 Puerto Rico -1.5%
52 New Jersey -4.3%
Canadian Provinces – % change in
Construction Employment
oct. 2018 vs oct. 2017 – Based on SA Data
Rank Province % change No. of Workers
1 Quebec 2.6%
2 British Columbia 2.3%
3 Alberta 1.1%
4 Ontario 0.2%
5 Saskatchewan -1.0%
6 Atlantic Region -1.5%
7 Manitoba -3.3%
In the U.S. table, numbers above dashed line are higher than U.S. total construction jobs change of +4.7%.Numbers above solid horizontal line are higher than U.S. ‘all-jobs’ change of +1.7%.
Figures for Delaware, D.C. and Hawaii include mining & logging as well as construction.
Data for Canada’s northern territories is not available.

Maps – Georgia Best and New Jersey Worst for Construction Jobs Growth

 
December 3rd, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect

Article source: ConstructConnect

The latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) records that the U.S. construction sector’s unemployment rate in October was 3.6%, lower than the national ‘headline’ rate of 3.7% for all jobs in the economy.

Uneven Recovery in U.S. Construction Jobs, Residential versus Nonresidential Graphic

Since 3.7% as the national jobless level was a nearly 50-year low, for construction to have done even better was an outstanding achievement.

Also, for October 2018, the BLS calculated that construction workers’ year-over-year (y/y) wage gains were ‘richer’ than for all jobs (i.e., not just construction, but manufacturing and all manner of services work), both hourly (+4.2% versus +3.2%) and weekly (+4.5% versus +3.2%).

Read the rest of Maps – Georgia Best and New Jersey Worst for Construction Jobs Growth

Big October U.S. Jobs Gain Has Fed Interest Rate Implications; Meanwhile, Canada Quiet on the Jobs Front

 
November 2nd, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect

According to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the total number of jobs in the U.S. in October rose by 250,000, an outstanding gain.

Big October U.S. Jobs Gain Graphic

Because the participation increased slightly, from 62.7% in September to 62.9% in October (i.e., more people re-entered the work force), the unemployment rate stayed the same as the month before, at 3.7%.

What’s important to remember, though, is that a 3.7% American jobless figure is a 50-year low.

According to the latest Labour Force Survey results published by Statistics Canada, total employment north of the border in October bobbed up by a relatively anemic 11,000 jobs.

Read the rest of Big October U.S. Jobs Gain Has Fed Interest Rate Implications; Meanwhile, Canada Quiet on the Jobs Front

2 Leading Monitors of U.S. Construction Activity, 1 Public and 1 Private – Fall 2018

 
October 2nd, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect

Article source: ConstructConnect

In 2017, as calculated by the Census Bureau, total U.S. put-in-place construction activity was +4.5% year over year (y/y), with all the strength coming from residential, +12.2%, since nonresidential work was a little worse than flat, -0.5%. (‘Put-in-place’ as a concept captures work-in-process or progress payments as projects proceed.)

Over the past five years, 2013 through 2017, the annual total of U.S. put-in-place construction has averaged +8.0% y/y, led by exceptional growth in residential, +14.0%, with nonresidential doing okay, +4.5%, but not shattering any records.

The latest data from the Census Bureau, for August 2018, shows year-to-date results (i.e., versus the first eight months of last year) being +5.2% for total; +6.5% for residential; and +4.3% for nonresidential, +4.3%.

Read the rest of 2 Leading Monitors of U.S. Construction Activity, 1 Public and 1 Private – Fall 2018

With U.S. Tariffs on Chinese ‘Parts’, Advantage Goes to Canada in Auto Sector Investments

 
September 21st, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect

Article source: ConstructConnect

The Trump Administration in Washington has recently imposed $200 billion in tariffs on imports from China. Included in those new duty assessments are auto parts.

This action, along with another key development in Mexico, has introduced a strange twist into the dynamics of where, in North America, motor vehicle assemblers may wish to carry out future capital spending.

Read the rest of With U.S. Tariffs on Chinese ‘Parts’, Advantage Goes to Canada in Auto Sector Investments

ConstructConnect’s August Nonresidential Starts -19% M/M, But Only -2% YTD

 
September 13th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect

Article source: ConstructConnect

ConstructConnect announced today that August’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential activity, was $33.1 billion − a month-to-month change of -18.9%. The long-term history of the starts data records a ‘normal’ change of -3.5% from July to August, due to seasonality. (Starts are traditionally strongest in Spring and early Summer.)

2018-09-12-US-Nonresidential-Construction-Starts-August-2018

Compared with August of last year, this year’s latest-month nonresidential starts volume was -9.5%.  Relative to the nonresidential five-year average for August, from 2013 through 2017, this year’s latest-month starts volume was +2.7%. Year-to-date nonresidential starts in 2018 compared with the same January-August time frame of 2017 have been -1.9%.

The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they altered for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars.

‘Nonresidential building’ plus ‘engineering/civil’ work accounts for a larger share of total construction than residential activity. The former’s combined proportion of total put-in-place construction in the Census Bureau’s July report was 55%; the latter’s share was 45%.


View this information as an infographic
.

ConstructConnect’s construction starts are leading indicators for the Census Bureau’s capital investment or put-in-place series. Also, the reporting period for starts (i.e., August 2018) is one month ahead of the reporting period for the investment series (i.e., July 2018.)

The all-jobs increase for the U.S. economy in August was +1.6% year over year, according to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Hiring by the construction sector has been more robust, +4.3% year over year. The month-to-month nominal jobs increase in construction in August was +23,000, the same as the average monthly gain since the beginning of this year. Construction hiring on average for January-August 2018 is up by one-third versus 2017’s +18,000 monthly average for the first two-thirds of 2017. Construction’s current unemployment rate is 3.4%, the same as in July, but down from 4.7% in August 2017. Construction’s jobless rate is lower than the ‘headline’ figure for the whole economy, 3.9%.
Read the rest of ConstructConnect’s August Nonresidential Starts -19% M/M, But Only -2% YTD

Equity Price Patterns of 39 Companies with Ties to Construction

 
August 21st, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect

Article source: ConstructConnect

There’s nothing complicated about today’s article. It simply examines, with the aid of the accompanying table, the latest 12-month performances of the share prices of nearly 40 well-known companies.

2018-08-21-Equity-Price-Graphic

The 39 firms have been arranged alphabetically according to their primary industrial activity. Not all sectors are represented. One obvious omission is ‘health care’. CVS and Walgreens-Boots under ‘General Retail’ will have to serve as proxies.

But there has been an attempt to capture companies with direct or indirect (i.e., through capital spending on manufacturing facilities, retail space, etc.) ties to construction.

For each company, the two right-hand, percentage-change columns compare the current share price with: (1) the latest 12-month low; and (2) the latest 12-month high.

With respect to 12-month lows, percentage changes that are 50.0% or more have been shaded lightly in gray.

With respect to 12-month highs, percentage changes that are -20.0% or more steeply negative have been shaded in red.

Read the rest of Equity Price Patterns of 39 Companies with Ties to Construction

12 Mid-August Economic Nuggets

 
August 20th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect

Article source: ConstructConnect

The U.S. quarter-to-quarter annualized advance in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year was an outsized +4.1%. It was the fastest leap forward since 2014’s third quarter jump of +4.9%. Some of the strength has been attributed to exports that were shipped early to beat target dates for the imposition of tariffs.

12 Mid-August Economic Nuggets Graphic

Nevertheless, it’s fair to say that America’s economy is presently firing smoother on more cylinders than it has in a long time. And even when problems do crop up, such as a potential Turkish currency crisis, they are – to all outward appearances − being dealt with and hustled aside quickly.

The foregoing is not to imply that there are no nagging points of concern. After all, inflation is shaking off its long slumber and preparing to possibly initiate trouble. The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July was +2.9% year over year. Even the ‘core’ rate (+2.4%), which omits volatile food and energy components, exceeded the +2.0% level favored by the Federal Reserve.

Read the rest of 12 Mid-August Economic Nuggets

July the Year’s Best Month To-date for Employment Gain in Canada

 
August 13th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect

Article source: ConstructConnect

Total employment in Canada recorded the best month-to-month increase so far this year in July, +54,000 jobs, according to the latest Labour Force Survey results published by Statistics Canada.

Prior to July, the best month-to-month improvements in 2018 had occurred in March and June, tied at +32,000 jobs.

The pick-up in hiring in July was entirely in part-time work (+82,000 jobs), as the number of positions classified as full-time suffered a setback (-28,000).

Read the rest of July the Year’s Best Month To-date for Employment Gain in Canada

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