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Archive for December 23rd, 2015

U.S. Put-in-place Construction Growth to be near 9% in 2016 and 2017 (Parts 1)

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2015

Article source: CMDGroup

The focus for CMD’s construction statistics, both in the U.S. and Canada, is on actual and forecast levels of starts.

There is another data set supplied by government agencies – i.e., the Census Bureau and Statistics Canada − known as the put-in-place (PIP) investment spending series.

For ‘starts’, the total value of a project is entered in the month when, according to a best estimate, ground is broken. The starts are often referred to as ‘lumpy’, since the largest projects play outsized roles.

Starts totals are built-up from the summation of all individual projects that are in the data base.

Conceptually, the PIP data set differs in that it simulates progress payments as projects proceed.

For example, while PIP numbers are actually based on owners’ and others’ estimates of capital  spending across a total universe of construction activity, a $60 billion office building beginning in July of this year will be theoretically captured (approximately) as $20 billion appearing in 2015; $30 billion in 2016; and the final $10 billion in 2017.
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A Momentous Fed Rate Hike as Afterthought

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2015

Article source: CMDGroup

The Federal Reserve has been waffling about raising interest rates for so long, it seems like an afterthought now that the step has finally been taken.

On December 16, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) moved up the federal funds rate from a range of 0.00%-0.25% to 0.25%-0.50%.

It’s a disservice not to acknowledge the momentous nature of this event.

Nearly a decade has passed since the last rate hike. Over the past seven years, the yield has been flat and barely above zero.

The current shift upward has little to do with the fed’s twin mandates of job creation and achieving an inflation target of 2.0%.
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