Rough Patch for Nonresidential Starts in November, But YTD Decline Remained Modest

Article source: ConstructConnect

ConstructConnect announced today that November’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $27.4 billion, the lowest level since February ($26.6 billion) of this year.

On a month-to-month basis, November’s nonresidential starts fell by nearly one-quarter (-22.6%). The usual seasonal pullback, due to harsher winter-onset weather, is in a range of -2% to -7%. November 2018 compared with November 2017 was -9.8%. November 2018 relative to the previous five-year average for November, − i.e., from 2013 through 2017, − was +0.9%.

Year-to-date starts in 2018 compared with January-to-November of 2017 have been -4.0%. There is only one month still to go, December, before 2018’s annual results will be tabulated.

The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they altered for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars.

View this information as an infographic.

‘Nonresidential building’ plus ‘engineering/civil’ work accounts for a larger share of total construction than residential activity. The former’s combined proportion of total put-in-place construction in the Census Bureau’s October report was 59%; the latter’s was 41%.

ConstructConnect’s construction starts are leading indicators for the Census Bureau’s capital investment or put-in-place series. Also, the reporting period for starts (i.e., November 2018) is one month ahead of the reporting period for the investment series (i.e., October 2018.)

The total number of jobs in the U.S. construction sector rose by only 5,000 in November, according to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The average monthly increase in ‘hard hat’ jobs so far this year, however, has been +22,000, a gain of +15.4% versus January-to-November 2017’s monthly average of +19,000. The NSA unemployment rate in U.S. construction is presently 3.9%, a little higher than the previous month’s 3.6%, but better than November 2017’s 5.0%. While job openings in the industry, from the JOLTS report, are +25.3% year over year, an available-worker shortage is inhibiting ‘hires’.

On a percentage-change basis, U.S. construction jobs in November were +4.0% year over year. Payroll adjustments in other sectors important to construction, over the past 12 months, have been: ‘cement and concrete product manufacturing’, no change; ‘building material and supplies dealers’, +0.7%; ‘real estate firms’, +2.1%; ‘architectural and engineering services’, +3.3%; ‘oil and gas extraction’, +5.1%; and, setting a blistering pace, ‘machinery and equipment rental’, +12.0%.

The -22.6% month-to-month (m/m) drop in total nonresidential starts in November resulted from weakness in all the major type-of-structure categories. Industrial (-70.5%) fell the most, followed by commercial (-26.6%) and institutional (-19.4%). Engineering (-12.2%) retreated the least.

The November-2018-versus-November-2017 (y/y) decline in total nonresidential starts of -9.8% originated in two main sources. Industrial (-40.1%) was chief villain, with commercial (-16.7%) as its accomplice. Institutional (-3.0%) and engineering (-5.5%) showed less severe softening.

The disappointing percentage change (-4.0%) overall year to date (ytd) has been due to industrial (-15.5%), commercial (-11.3%) and institutional (-5.2%) coming together to present more of an obstacle than heavy engineering/civil (+7.0%) has been able to overcome.

The largest subcomponent of engineering starts to date this year has been ‘roads/highways’ (with a 39% share). In November, street starts were: -9.6% m/m; but +51.8% y/y; and +18.7% ytd. The second largest slice (20%) of engineering has originated with ‘miscellaneous civil’, which has most recently been -45.8% y/y; but +16.1% m/m; and +16.7% ytd (see Top 10 project starts for a $2.2 billion Phillips 66 oil pipeline in Texas). ‘Water/sewage’ work has also been a major contributor (an 18% slice) to engineering starts with only one month still to go in 2018. In November, ‘water/sewage’ starts were: -14.5% m/m; and -8.3% ytd; but +18.5% y/y.

Within commercial, ‘private offices’ (a 21% slice) and ‘hotels/motels’ (a 20% slice) have played almost equally important roles through the first eleven months of this year. While they may account for high shares of commercial, their percentage-change numbers have been anemic. In November, the former was -56.2% m/m, -58.7% y/y and -9.0% ytd and the latter was -26.0% m/m, -17.9% y/y and -13.7% ytd. Next in line for share of commercial starts (at 16%) has been ‘warehouses’. In November, warehouse starts were: -6.9% ytd; but +4.9% m/m; and +17.3% y/y.

More than half (57%) of institutional starts to date in 2018 have been initiations of work on ‘school/college’ projects. In November, such educational facility starts were -10.7% m/m and -1.4% ytd, but +5.4% y/y. Claiming second place within institutional and accounting for more than one-quarter (28%) of groundbreakings in the category have been projects that are medical in nature. A combined grouping that includes ‘hospitals/clinics’, ‘nursing/assisted living’ and ‘miscellaneous medical’ recorded the following percentage changes in November: -29.6% m/m, -36.2% y/y and -12.3% ytd. Strictly on a ytd-basis, the ‘miscellaneous medical’ subcategory (-6.3%) has declined less than ‘hospitals/clinics’ (-14.0%) and ‘nursing/assisted living’ (-15.7%).

The Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – November 2018. sets out 12-month moving average trend graphs for many of the key type-of-structure subcategories. Since mid-2016, ‘retail’ starts have been displaying a severe downward-sloping curve. Also heading lower of late have been ‘hospitals’ (although to only a minor degree) and ‘miscellaneous civil’ (but from an extreme high). Staying approximately flat have been ‘office buildings’, ‘schools/colleges’ and ‘water/sewage’. Shooting upwards are ‘roads’ and ‘bridges’.

Tables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report record average hourly and average weekly wages for industry sectors. B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses) on non-farm payrolls; B-8 is for ‘production and non-supervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludes bosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there are eight relevant percentage changes to consider.

After compensation rates sped up in October, there was mild deceleration in November. From Table B-3, average earnings y/y for ‘all jobs’ in November were +3.1% hourly and +2.8% weekly. Construction workers stayed a little ahead, at +3.7% hourly and +2.9% weekly. From Table B-8 (leaving out bosses), the y/y ‘all jobs’ earnings climbs were +3.2% both hourly and weekly. Again, construction workers as a subset fared better at +4.2% hourly and +3.4% weekly.

The value of construction starts each month is summarized from ConstructConnect’s database of all active construction projects in the U.S. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models.

ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are ultra-large, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy.

ConstructConnect’s single-family plus multi-family residential starts in November were -14.3% m/m; -19.6% y/y; and -9.5% ytd. ‘Grand total’ starts were -19.3% m/m; -14.3% y/y; and -6.2% ytd.

ConstructConnect has now moved to a better-targeted and research-assigned ‘start’ date. Prior to January 2017, the ‘start’ date was recorded as occurring within 30 to 60 days of the announced bid date. In concept, a ‘start’ is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed. If work is abandoned or rebid, the ‘start’ date is revised to reflect the new information.

TABLE 1: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS – NOVEMBER 2018
(CONSTRUCTCONNECT)

Source: ConstructConnect Research Group and ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 2: VALUE OF UNITED STATES
CONSTRUCTION STARTS
CONSTRUCTCONNECT INSIGHT VERSION – NOVEMBER 2018
Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT

Table 1 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks nonresidential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers. Table 2 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect’s online product ‘Insight’.

Source: ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 3: VALUE OF UNITED STATES
NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS – NOVEMBER 2018 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 4: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL STARTS
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION* — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

*Figures above are comprised of nonres building and engineering (i.e., residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Tags: Alex Carrick, build, commercial, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economic, Economics, Economist, Economy, job, non-residential

Category: ConstructConnect

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