Archive for October, 2019
Monday, October 21st, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
Aided by Exports, Canada’s GDP Growth Soared in Q2
After managing only weak ‘real’ (i.e., after adjustment for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the final quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, Canada’s economy shifted into a higher gear during the latest three months.
 From Statistics Canada, Q2 2019’s national output increase (annualized) north of the border was +3.7% compared with just +0.5% in Q1 2019 and +0.3% in Q4 2018.
The boost to growth in Q2 came mainly in foreign trade, as exports of goods and services were +13.4%, while imports retreated by -4.0%. Energy products led the export strength.
For the first time in two years, Canada’s quarter-to-quarter GDP change beat the U.S., +3.7% to +2.0%. For seven straight quarters, from Q3 2017 to Q1 2019 inclusive, the U.S. had the advantage over Canada.
In Canada, household spending in this year’s second quarter advanced by a tepid +0.5% annualized. Nevertheless, consumer spending as a share of GDP has crossed above the halfway point. In 2018, for the entire year, it was 56.6% of GDP and in Q1 and Q2 of this year, it has been 56.9% and 56.5% respectively.
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Thursday, October 17th, 2019
Recently, there has been an easing of tensions in two key areas impacting the global economy. The U.S. and China have reached a first phase agreement towards resolving their trade disputes and the U.K. and E.U. are speaking again with the goal of avoiding a ‘hard’ Brexit. A new negotiated arrangement would alleviate the pain from the U.K withdrawing ‘cold turkey.’
At the same time, though, there are multitudinous geopolitical hot spots around the world. Turkey’s military incursion into northern Syria is of particular concern and potentially most destabilizing. Furthermore, an inquiry into the impeachment of the U.S. President has gained surprising traction. Some polls indicate more than half of Americans support such a measure.
No doubt, these are interesting times. With the foregoing as backdrop, there are the following additional nuggets to be gleaned from the latest public and private sector data releases.
(1) Initial Jobless Claims Return to Bullish
When watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, one of the first flashing lights will be a worsening in the weekly ‘initial jobless claims’ number. In the second half of September, it seemed that such an occurrence was underway. For September 21st, the initial jobless claims figure increased to 215,000 from 210,000 the week before. Then on September 28th, it rose further to 220,000. A worrying trend appeared to be underway. But in the latest report, for October 5th, it eased again—which is to say, it improved—to 210,000. When the figure climbs back above 240,000, a level not seen in several years, it will be time to pay more attention.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Economic, employment, Growth, job, jobless
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Tuesday, October 15th, 2019
Lowest Core-Aged Male Unemployment Rate in 40 Years
On top of the 82,000 net new jobs that were created in Canada in August, another +53,000 were added in September, according to the latest Labour Force Survey report published by Statistics Canada. The total for the past two months, therefore, has been +135,000, a remarkably strong advance.
The total increase in employment in Canada through the first three quarters of 2019 has been +358,000, way above January-to-September 2018’s figure of +98,000. The average monthly gain to date this year has been +40,000, more than three-and-a-half times larger than 2018’s comparable number of +11,000.
Canada’s seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate in September tightened another couple of notches to 5.5% from 5.7% in August. It was also down from September 2018’s 5.8%.
On a not seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis and adopting the same calculation methodology as in the U.S., Canada’s jobless rate in September was only 4.1%, its lowest reading this century. Also, the 4.1% figure for Canada was not greatly different from the 3.3% NSA level recorded in the U.S.
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