Recently, there has been an easing of tensions in two key areas impacting the global economy. The U.S. and China have reached a first phase agreement towards resolving their trade disputes and the U.K. and E.U. are speaking again with the goal of avoiding a ‘hard’ Brexit. A new negotiated arrangement would alleviate the pain from the U.K withdrawing ‘cold turkey.’
At the same time, though, there are multitudinous geopolitical hot spots around the world. Turkey’s military incursion into northern Syria is of particular concern and potentially most destabilizing. Furthermore, an inquiry into the impeachment of the U.S. President has gained surprising traction. Some polls indicate more than half of Americans support such a measure.
No doubt, these are interesting times. With the foregoing as backdrop, there are the following additional nuggets to be gleaned from the latest public and private sector data releases.
(1) Initial Jobless Claims Return to Bullish
When watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, one of the first flashing lights will be a worsening in the weekly ‘initial jobless claims’ number. In the second half of September, it seemed that such an occurrence was underway. For September 21st, the initial jobless claims figure increased to 215,000 from 210,000 the week before. Then on September 28th, it rose further to 220,000. A worrying trend appeared to be underway. But in the latest report, for October 5th, it eased again—which is to say, it improved—to 210,000. When the figure climbs back above 240,000, a level not seen in several years, it will be time to pay more attention.
