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The AEC Lens

Archive for November, 2019

The Census Bureau’s Total Put-In-Place Construction Figure Is Sleepwalking

Friday, November 8th, 2019

In the latest month, total U.S. put-in-place construction spending, as measured by the Census Bureau, was -2.1% year to date (ytd ‒ i.e., Jan-Sept 2019 versus Jan-Sept 2018). As for the total’s two major sub-components, residential (with a 40% share) was in decline, at -7.9% ytd, while nonresidential (with a 60% share) was modestly ahead, +2.2% ytd.

The Census Bureau’s Total Put-in-place Construction Figure is Sleepwalking Graphic In concept, put-in-place construction figures are the summation of work-in-progress payments during any given month for all structures being built. With respect to timing, they lag ‘starts’ statistics which are the summation of estimated final costs of all projects breaking ground in any given month.

A Flatlining in the Total Construction Curve

Graph 1 shows a flatlining in the level of total U.S. PIP construction dollars over the past two years, and maybe extending back three years. 2018 and 2019 have been only a little better than 2017.
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U.S. October Jobs Growth Not as Underwhelming as First Appears

Tuesday, November 5th, 2019

Revisions to Past Data Paint Better Picture

The headline figure on U.S. net jobs creation in October, as recorded in the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’s Employment Situation report, was a rather tepid +128,000. But as has occurred on several other recent occasions, there were significant revisions to past data that brighten the picture considerably.

U.S. October Jobs Growth not as Underwhelming as First Appears Graphic A month ago, September’s total employment count was reported as 151.722 million. Now, September is being estimated at 151.817 million, or +95,000. Therefore, October’s jobs number of 151.945 million is +223,000 when compared with what was originally reported for the prior period.

Nevertheless, there has been a deceleration in U.S. jobs growth this year. The monthly average increase in employment through the first three quarters of 2018 was +226,000. From January through September of 2019, the monthly average gain has been +167,000, a reduction of one-quarter (-26.0%).

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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Economist, Economy, employment, Growth, Housing, interest rate, jobless, Labor, manufacturing
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