Article source: ConstructConnect
A Dampening of Euphoria May Be Warranted
Euphoria concerning the U.S. economy, as demonstrated by record-setting stock market indices, won’t be dampened much by the just-released and somewhat tame Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The total number of American jobs in December rose by a lukewarm +145,000. Also, November’s jobs total was revised downwards slightly, by -14,000.
At the same time, though, the seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate stayed constant and exceedingly tight at 3.5%.
Nevertheless, the monthly average climb in U.S. employment in full-year 2019 was off by one-fifth compared with full-year 2018, +176,000 as opposed to +223,000.
Graphs 1 and 2 have been derived from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Graph 1 highlights that while total job ‘openings’ in the U.S. economy, expressed as both a level and a rate, remain quite elevated, they have been easing off a bit over the past couple of years. Also, ‘hires’, as captured in Graph 2, appear to have been moving sideways more than upwards.
Consumer Calling the Shots in New Employment
A historically low unemployment rate will render jobs advances, as seen so far in this economic upturn, harder to achieve. In turn, slower employment pickups will lead to a deceleration in consumer spending growth.
