A Weak February for Nonresidential Construction Starts, -25% M/M and -10% YTD

Article source: ConstructConnect

ConstructConnect announced today that the latest month’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $23.8 billion (green shaded box, Table 3 below), a drop of one-quarter (-25.4%) versus January’s figure of $31.9 billion (originally reported as $29.7 billion). For the first time since January 2018, more than two years ago, there were no ‘mega’ project (i.e., valued at $1.0 billion plus) groundbreakings in the latest month.

The months of 2019 were brimming with mega projects. There were 35 altogether, or an average of nearly three per month, with a combined sum of $79.1 billion. In 2020, there has been only one mega project to date, January’s $2 billion people mover at LAX.

View this information as an infographic.

Coronavirus Impacts on Mega Projects

The negative impacts from coronavirus fears spreading throughout the economy ‒ e.g., by way of conference, trip, and hotel cancellations and social distancing that keeps consumers away from shopping malls and sporting, cultural (SXSW), and political events (rallies) ‒ are sure to cut into national output, at least through the first half of this year.

In such a climate, it seems unlikely many owners will be willing to issue go-aheads for major capital spending initiatives. They’ll wait to learn more about the extent of the contagion. Most important, they’ll want clear signs that the spread is abating.

February 2020 nonresidential starts versus February 2019 were -15.8%. February 2020 year-to-date starts, compared with the first two months of 2019, were -9.6%.

‘Smoothed’ Series ‒ Grand Total Still Ahead Slightly

Since large project groundbreakings can often introduce notable volatility in the monthly ‘starts’ numbers and their period-to-period percentage changes, it is informative to also study ‘smoothed’ series, such as are set out in the middle columns of Table 3 below.

On a 12-month moving average basis, February 2020’s total nonresidential starts were +9.8% versus the previous 12 months (i.e., March-2019-to-February-2020 vs March-2018-to-February-2019). Type-of-structure subcategory starts on the same 12-month-over-prior-12-month basis in February 2020 were: commercial, +6.6%; industrial, +23.2%; institutional, +1.4%; and engineering, +16.4%.

The ‘smoothed’ grand total of starts, which includes residential, was +5.2% in February. As for residential activity, it was -2.2% on a 12-month moving average basis. The entire total residential decline originated in the multi-family market (-7.7%) as single-family starts held steady (+0.4%).

‘Starts’ as a Leading Indicator

The ‘starts’ figures appearing in this report’s tables and graphs are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor have they been altered to remove the effects of price changes, otherwise known as inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars.

‘Nonresidential building’ plus ‘engineering/civil’ work accounts for a larger share of total construction than residential activity. The former’s combined proportion of total put-in-place construction in the Census Bureau’s latest report for January 2020 was 60%; the latter’s was 40%. ConstructConnect’s construction starts are leading indicators for the Census Bureau’s capital investment or put-in-place series. Also, the reporting period for starts (February 2020) is one month ahead of the reporting period for the investment series (January 2020).

Construction Overview – Crackerjack Hiring in First Two Months

The U.S. construction sector recorded another banner month for hiring in February, +42,000 jobs, on the heels of +49,000 in January. The first two months of this year were +91,000 jobs versus +21,000 in January-February 2019. Construction’s NSA unemployment rate in the latest month was 5.5%, up a notch from 5.4% in January, but still better than February 2019’s 6.2%.

Among major sectors of the economy, construction has retaken the lead in year-over-year jobs growth. At +3.0% y/y in February, construction was a little out front of second place ‘education and health,’ +2.8%, and comfortably ahead of third place ‘leisure and hospitality,’ +2.4%. U.S. total employment in February was +1.6% y/y. There have been two sectors with stagnant payrolls ‒ manufacturing, at +0.2%, and retail, -0.1%.

The latest year-over-year job count changes in other corners of the economy with close ties to construction have been: ‘oil and gas extraction,’ +9.3%; ‘machinery and equipment rental,’ +4.5%; ‘real estate activities,’ +3.3%;  ‘architectural and engineering services,’ +2.6%; ‘building material and supplies dealers,’ +1.2%; and ‘cement and concrete product manufacturing,’ +0.5%

M/M, Y/Y, & YTD Results ― Mainly Across-The-Board Weakness

The -25.4% decline in total nonresidential starts month-over-month (m/m) in February resulted from across-the-board weakness. Industrial performed worst (-57.4%), but there was no help to be found from commercial (-34.1%), heavy engineering/civil (-25.3%), nor institutional (-11.0%).

As for the -15.8% drop in total nonresidential starts in latest February versus year-ago February (y/y), industrial again fell most (-87.3%), with commercial and engineering down to about the same degrees (-13.9% and -12.4% respectively). Institutional provided a ray of sunshine (+9.0%).

In year-to-date (ytd) total nonresidential starts, -9.6%, the bad actors were industrial (-80.0%) and institutional (-7.8%). Commercial stayed even (-0.4%). Engineering improved a bit (+2.0%).

Hospital Starts Have Best 3 Metrics

The ‘road/highway’ subcategory has accounted for one-third (34%) of engineering initiations to date this year. Such street starts in February were -6.8% m/m, -6.5% y/y, and -4.0% ytd. ‘Bridge’ and ‘water/sewage’ work have been next most significant (with 20% shares each) for engineering through this year’s first two months. The three key metrics for bridges have been: -13.5% m/m; -20.5% y/y; and -9.6% ytd. For ‘water/sewage’ work, they have been: +1.8% m/m; but -0.4% y/y; and -14.0% ytd. ‘Miscellaneous civil’ (with an 18% share of engineering to date) has recorded results that have been: -67.3% m/m; -2.1% y/y; but +123.1% ytd.

Within commercial starts, the ‘private office buildings’ subcategory has been the star so far this year (with a 29% share). In February, private office building starts were a little off m/m (-2.0%), but they were way ahead y/y (+133.2%) and ytd (+124.3%). The y/y and ytd strength was due to January and February featuring preliminary construction work on two large data center projects for Google, one in Virginia and the other in Nebraska. Elsewhere in commercial, ‘warehouse’ starts (18% slice ytd) in 2020’s second month were -82.8% m/m, and -66.4% y/y, but +10.8% ytd and ‘hotel/motel’ starts (17% slice) were +1.9% m/m, but -16.5% y/y, and -12.9% ytd.

‘Schools/colleges’ have been more than half (52%) of institutional to date in 2020. The percentage-change figures for educational facility starts in February were -7.8% m/m, -9.8% y/y, and -16.5% ytd. Health care facility starts, as a combination of the ‘hospital/clinic’, ‘nursing/assisted living’ and ‘miscellaneous medical’ subcategories, have been 26% of institutional so far in 2020. The starts statistics for this grouping in February were -10.0% m/m and -24.4% ytd, but +8.5% y/y. Nearly alone among all subcategories, ‘hospital/clinic’ starts have been uniformly positive: +14.2% m/m; +74.3% y/y; and +5.1% ytd. ‘Government office buildings’ (commercial) and ‘libraries/museums’ (institutional) have also recorded nothing but pluses.

Construction Job ‘Openings’ & ‘Hirings’ Head in Opposite Directions

‘Openings’ and ‘hirings’ in the construction sector, as shown in JOLTS Graphs 1 and 2, are moving emphatically in opposite directions. JOLTS data comes from a monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It’s tempting to say that openings are down because hiring is up. If that is the case, though, it suggests a construction marketplace that is essentially static. History has shown that when an industrial sector is advancing nicely, both openings and hiring are climbing.

The Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – February 2020 showcase six graphs featuring 12-month moving averages for a dozen type-of-structure categories. In the latest month or two, most of the graphs have either flattened or turned down to a minor degree. An exception on the upside is ‘private office buildings.’ Standing out on the downside is ‘retail,’ where the freefall has yet to end.

Graph 1: U.S. Construction Job Openings (from JOLTS Report)
(3-month Moving Averages placed in Latest Month)

*Rate is number of job openings end-of-month as % of ‘construction employment plus number of job openings’.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Latest seasonally adjusted (SA) data points are for December, 2019.

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Graph 2: U.S. Construction Job Hires (from JOLTS Report)
(3-month Moving Averages placed in Latest Month)

*Rate is number of hires during month as % of construction employment.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Latest seasonally adjusted (SA) data points are for December, 2019.

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Construction’s Wage Gains Okay in February

Tables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report record average hourly and average weekly wages for industry sectors. B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses) on nonfarm payrolls. B-8 is for ‘production and nonsupervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludes bosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there are eight relevant percentage changes to consider.

From February’s BLS Table B-3 (including supervisory personnel), the ‘all-jobs’ y/y earnings increases were +3.0% both hourly and weekly. Construction workers, as a subset of ‘all jobs,’ were on the mark hourly, at +3.0%, but fared considerably better weekly, +4.3%. From BLS Table B-8, (leaving out bosses), economy-wide workers realized pay gains of +3.3% hourly and +3.6% weekly. Construction workers fell behind hourly, +2.7%, but more than made up the difference weekly, +4.0%.

Construction Costing ‒ 3 PPI Series: 1 Up, 1 Down, and 1 Less Negative

February 2020’s y/y results for three BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) series were as follows: ‘construction materials special index,’ -1.6% (bobbing up a touch from January’s -2.1%); ‘inputs to new construction index, excluding capital investment, labor, and imports,’ +1.6% (sinking down a tad from January’s +2.3%); and ‘final demand construction,’ +3.8% (advancing a little more rapidly relative to the previous month’s +3.7%).

The value of construction starts each month is derived from ConstructConnect’s database of all active construction projects in the U.S. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models. ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are super-large, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy.

ConstructConnect’s total residential starts in February were -14.1% m/m, -11.2% y/y, and -7.5% ytd. Total residential was led downwards by multiple-unit starts, which were -35.4% m/m, -54.3% y/y, and -38.6% ytd. Singles may have been -6.6% m/m, but they were +14.9% y/y and +8.8% ytd. Combining residential and nonresidential, ‘Grand Total’ construction starts in the latest month were -20.9% m/m, -13.8% y/y, and -8.8% ytd.

ConstructConnect has moved to a better-targeted and research-assigned ‘start’ date. (Prior to January 2017, the ‘start’ date was recorded as occurring within 30 to 60 days of the announced bid date.) In concept, a ‘start’ is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed. If work is abandoned or rebid, the ‘start’ date is revised to reflect the new information.

Click here to download the Construction Industry Snapshot Package – February 2020 PDF.

Click here for the Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – February 2020.

Click here for the Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – February 2020.

TABLE 1: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
FEBRUARY 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT

<td “> <td “>% Change

*Includes transportation terminals and sports arenas.

Source: ConstructConnect Research Group and ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 2: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
CONSTRUCTCONNECT INSIGHT VERSION – FEBRUARY 2020
Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT

Table 1 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks nonresidential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial, and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers. Table 2 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect Insight.

Source: ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 3: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS – FEBRUARY 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

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Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 4: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL STARTS
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION* — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

*Figures above are comprised of nonres building and engineering (i.e., residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Category: ConstructConnect

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