Deep into the coronavirus crisis, the retail sales landscape is about to undergo some significant alteration. Many categories of shopkeeping will see significant declines in revenue, while a few might manage to hold the line or even make gains.
Two negative forces are taking huge tolls: (1) a staggering number of job losses, with more being implemented daily; and (2) government and health directives warning everyone, if possible, to stay at home.
Point (1) will be mitigated to some degree by unemployment insurance guarantees and extensions and by various wage supplement plans.
Point (2) provides an incentive to accelerate the already underway trend to do more household shopping online.
Entering this Spring, U.S. consumer spending was chugging along at a decent enough rate, +4.2% year over year, although +5.0% or above is usually taken to be the benchmark for commendable growth (Graph 1).