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Archive for March 31st, 2020

U.S. and Canadian Retail Sales Before, During and After

Tuesday, March 31st, 2020

Deep into the coronavirus crisis, the retail sales landscape is about to undergo some significant alteration. Many categories of shopkeeping will see significant declines in revenue, while a few might manage to hold the line or even make gains.

U.S. and Canadian Retail Sales Before, During and After Graphic

Two negative forces are taking huge tolls: (1) a staggering number of job losses, with more being implemented daily; and (2) government and health directives warning everyone, if possible, to stay at home.

Point (1) will be mitigated to some degree by unemployment insurance guarantees and extensions and by various wage supplement plans.

Point (2) provides an incentive to accelerate the already underway trend to do more household shopping online.

Entering this Spring, U.S. consumer spending was chugging along at a decent enough rate, +4.2% year over year, although +5.0% or above is usually taken to be the benchmark for commendable growth (Graph 1).

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Notes from the Trenches (3)

Tuesday, March 31st, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • What is one to make of half-its-old-price gasoline? In theory, it sounds great. But you just know there are a lot of ‘buts’ to go with it. The reason petrol is so cheap is because individuals are not commuting to places of employment and tourists aren’t traveling. And because Saudi Arabia is pumping out more oil than usual to grab additional market share. Certain states and provinces are quite dependent on tax and royalty revenues from energy production. Texas, Louisiana, Colorado and North Dakota in the U.S. and Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador in Canada are hurting. In the U.S., it’s the airline industry that needs rescuing. In Canada, it’s the fossil fuel sector.
  • Some surprising enterprises are becoming public service companies. Take WalMart. WalMart’s initial expansion into communities far and wide across the U.S. and Canada was met with criticism on the grounds that it was driving main street retailers out of business. Now, with many smaller shopkeepers forced to shut down for a different reason, i.e., as a health measure, WalMart has become the nearest thing possible to a last resort for consumers needing essential personal care and grocery items. Not everyone is buying everything over the Internet.
  • Bill Gates, a man who’s shown considerable insight in the past, is telling anyone who asks his opinion that he expects the coronavirus crisis to last six to ten weeks. Six weeks was the experience in China. The possible longer duration of ten weeks is presumably because the personal interaction restrictions in the province of Wuhan, China were more severe than are currently in place in North America. By comparison, we only think our movements are being seriously limited.
  • Speaking of relaxed restrictions, Sweden is going a different direction than nearly every other nation. The Swedish government has taken a stand against gatherings of 50 people or more, but schools and restaurants are being allowed to stay open. There’s lots of concern that this will take Sweden to a very bad place. It’s not as if the country isn’t already struggling with COVID-19 cases and mortalities.
  • The present circumstances present a substantial disincentive to commit a crime. Within its tight confines, a prison is not the place where you want to weather out the coronavirus crisis.



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