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Archive for April, 2020

Notes from the Trenches (23)

Tuesday, April 28th, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • According to CBRE, there are seven major wholesale data center markets in the U.S. By far the biggest is in northern Virginia, with the community of Ashburn in Loudoun County (near Dulles Airport) at its core. The other six, from east to west, are Tri-state New York, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Phoenix and Silicon Valley. Prior to the pandemic, they were viewed as being recession-proof. That assertion is likely to be proven true many times over in this current coronavirus crisis.
  • The same won’t be said for call centers, though. Data centers are full of computer equipment knows as servers. Call centers are chock full of people in cubicles. Who knew that mingling with co-workers would one day become so dangerous? Call center employees are upset about their working conditions and want to operate from home.

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Notes from the Trenches (22)

Tuesday, April 28th, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • In Q1 of this year, China’s ‘real’ (i.e., after-inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) declined by -6.8% compared with the first quarter of 2019. It was the first year-over-year contraction for the country since the National Bureau of Statistics began releasing official GDP estimates in 1992. In the previous period, Q4 2019, China managed output growth of +6.0%, but then the coronavirus descended on the city of Wuhan and the province of Hubei in last year’s final days. Isolation measures rippling out to cover much of the country stopped economic activity in its tracks.
  • The lockdown restrictions in China have now been lifted, with Wuhan being the last to see the easing. The word out of Wuhan, however, is that even though shopping malls are up and running again, consumers remain reluctant to step inside.

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Notes from the Trenches (21)

Friday, April 24th, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • In the 2008-2009 recession, employment with legal services firms fell significantly and subsequently stayed down. When the far shore of the pandemic crisis is finally reached, the legal community will receive a big boost. The number of individuals and companies engaging in legal action may well exceed those shying away.
  • There’ll be employees suing bosses for unfairly terminating their jobs. There’ll be workers who’ve suffered health damage and feel they were wrongly put at risk. There’ll be companies suing governments for enforced shutdowns resulting in bankruptcies. There’ll be landlords suing tenants for rent payment delinquencies. There’ll be banks going after homeowners to take back mortgages in default.

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Monitoring the Economic Slide by Means of Graphs

Thursday, April 23rd, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

U.S. initial jobless claims for the latest week, ending April 18th, were 4.4 million. Only a minimal amount of encouragement can be taken from the fact the figure has been declining for three weeks in a row. A level of 4.4 million reached in only seven days is still horrifically high.

The sum of the weekly figures for the past five periods is 26.4 million. Not all that number will appear in the monthly unemployed tally to be reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in May, for April. A certain unknown percentage of UI seekers still have jobs, but they’ve moved from full-time to part-time.

Nevertheless, when one crunches the numbers and compares a likely figure for the number of unemployed versus the size of the civilian labor force (163 million), the best the unemployment rate can be at this time is 15.0%. And it doesn’t take much of an adjustment in assumptions to yield a 20.0% result.

Graph 1 

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Notes from the Trenches (20)

Thursday, April 23rd, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • There seem to be nearly unlimited ways in which society can separate into diverse factions (e.g., along lines tied to income, race, religion, sexual orientation, culinary taste, etc.). There’s one split, though, where the degree of difference exposed by the coronavirus crisis is being magnified to the ‘nth degree’. There are those who have acquired a degree of proficiency in using new high-tech tools, across a wide spectrum of applications, and those who have not. The age composition of the ‘not’ group is inordinately older. (I’m allowed to say that because I’m in the older demographic; they’re my ‘peeps’.)
  • Those who are comfortable with digital technology are staying on top of events, be they bad or good, as they unfold. When called upon by employers, they are managing to perform well in non-traditional ways (e.g. working entirely online), most often from their own homes. The counter position taken by those outside the cyber-space loop is that not everyone should need to be instantly accessible twenty-four hours, every day. And that perhaps there’s more joy in not being up on everything.

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Notes from the Trenches (19)

Wednesday, April 22nd, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • Beyond stock market prices, which can display a lot of ‘chatter’ (i.e., large up and down changes), there’s another important daily indicator of how the economy is doing, electricity usage. With retail stores, offices and factories closed during the coronavirus crisis, the decline in the commercial consumption of electricity has been greater than the increase in the amount of power used in residences. There’s been a big increase in the number of people set up with laptop and desktop computers to work from home.
  • Residential power consumption has shot way up on weekdays but has not increased much on weekends versus previous patterns. This is confirmation of what we’ve already intuitively grasped, that the distinction between weekdays and weekends has blurred. Everybody being tied together by smart phones started the ball rolling years ago.

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Notes from the Trenches (18)

Wednesday, April 22nd, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • Retail sales by some U.S. shopkeepers in March were prodigiously bad. The revenue rung up by clothing and accessory stores was only half February’s level. Versus the month prior, motor vehicle and parts dealers and furniture stores had their earnings slashed by one-quarter. Moving in the opposite direction, though, were grocery stores, where sales soared by more than a quarter. Rumors of shortages prompted panic buying.
  • The first wave of giant job losses in the U.S. (and Canada) occurred in the leisure and hospitality sector. Now it’s being reported that sales by U.S. ‘food services and drinking places’ (i.e., bars and restaurants), were -23% in March compared with February.

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Notes from the Trenches (17)

Tuesday, April 21st, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • The mayors of New York and Los Angeles have announced there will be no major league sports events or concert stage shows in their cities until 2021 at least. As Liza Minnelli would sing, “Start spreading the news …”
  • When I think of the Big Apple, something that couldn’t happen today comes to mind, the Occupy Wall Street movement. Protesters have been sidelined by the coronavirus and shelter-at-home directives. Ingenuity will always prevail, though. Protesters today, rather than walking a picket line with a placard, are approaching the targets of their disaffection in a vehicle, honking the horn and vocalizing through a lowered window.
  • If past momentous economic events are any indication, the current tough times won’t be objectively comprehensible until they’ve been given a proper name (e.g., Great Depression, Great Recession). What’s my nomination for the best handle to describe our present circumstances? … the ‘corona coma’ contraction.

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Notes from the Trenches (16)

Friday, April 17th, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • Do you remember the Greek financial crisis and how, for years, there was the danger that Greece’s enormous debt would destroy that country and, domino-like, cause the fall of several other nations, as well as some banks? Within the next couple of years, there will be a slew of countries mirroring Greece’s earlier plight.
  • In poorer countries without the clout of the Federal Reserve, the European central bank or only a few other major central banks, running up debt and printing money to ease the pain of ‘social distancing’ will carry a cost that will be nigh on impossible to bear. Included in such a list will be several of OPEC’s less prominent members (with Saudi Arabia being most prominent), such as Algeria, Libya, Congo and Ecuador (Venezuela’s already down for the count). They’re being pummeled by a double whammy, the second of which is an extraordinarily low price for the main product they sell and export, oil.

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5 Mid-April Economic Nuggets

Thursday, April 16th, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • A forewarning for the U.S. in Canada’s March Labor Market Numbers
  • 5 Shocking Declines in Shopkeeper Sales, But 1 Good News Story
  • Canadian Part-time Work Evaporates
  • A Drop in Oil Demand that will Muddy the Waters for OPEC
  • S. Initial Jobless Claims Climb to 22 Million in 4 Weeks

The times are turbulent. There’s no point in dilly-dallying. Let’s jump right in with an examination of the latest data releases from public and private sector sources.

5 Shocking Declines in Shopkeeper Sales, But 1 Good News Story

March’s U.S. Advance Monthly Sales of Retail and Food Services report sets out some big month-to-month percentage changes. Most, but not all, were on the downside.

Five sub-categories experienced declines from February to March of more than one-fifth. Performing worst was the category ‘clothing and clothing accessory stores’, -50.5%. The four others with severe sales contractions were: ‘furniture and home furnishing stores’, -26.8%; ‘food services and drinking places’, -26.5%; ‘motor vehicle and parts dealers’, -25.6%; and ‘sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores’, -23.3%.
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