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Archive for April 15th, 2020

Notes from the Trenches (14)

Wednesday, April 15th, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • On the medical front, there are statistics on infection rates and mortality rates. Such data points are then held up against the figures that prevailed during the SARS and H1N1 outbreaks and the influenza scourge of 1918. On the business side, employment and GDP performances are assessed relative to what occurred during the Financial Crisis, the Great Depression and averages over of all recessions. There’s a lesson to be learned while swimming in this numbers-saturated sea: crises come and go, but statistics live forever.
  •  Add to the list of statistics a new one, the ‘compliance’ rate. The compliance rate is the proportion of the population that is adhering to ‘social distancing’. It’s a surprisingly high 90%. In initial ‘modeling’ about the spread of the disease, only 50% was the assumption made concerning the general population’s willingness to stay indoors to defeat this thing.

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Notes from the Trenches (13)

Wednesday, April 15th, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • On the far side of this pandemic-induced economic freeze, how much will pervasive worrying about a second (or even third) wave of coronavirus infections slow the recovery? Current speculation is that even if COVID-19 runs its course through the spring and early summer, it might roar again when the warmer weather begins to chill in the fall. (Some viruses thrive more in cooler rather than warmer environments.)
  • If there are next waves, each one is likely to be less severe and of shorter duration than the current one, since by then the supply of medical gear (ventilators, etc.) will have been vastly expanded. Also, a great deal of experience will have been gained in how best to deal with the silent and invisible intrusion.

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Notes from the Trenches (12)

Wednesday, April 15th, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • The first impacts from coronavirus-caused shutdowns of factories in China cropped up in the February foreign trade statistics. The U.S. goods and services trade shortfall down-scaled to less than half a trillion dollars for the first time in three-and-a-half years, dating back to September 2016. China accounted for only one-third of the deficit in the latest month, versus its usual 45% to 50%. Mexico’s slice of the U.S. trade deficit, however, climbed above 20%, a historically high bite.
  • It’s taken for granted that if we all stay home for a while, at least we’ll have plenty to watch on Netflix, Crave, Prime, etc. The downloadable and quick-steaming entertainment sites do have vast inventories of movies, series and documentaries to catch up on. As for new material, though, film and TV productions have been shut down just like other industries throughout the economy. For example, taping of Gray’s Anatomy wrapped up several episodes before its ‘de rigueur’ season-ending cliffhanger. Certain ‘tinseltowns’ are especially vulnerable as Klieg lights are dimmed (Hollywood, Atlanta, Toronto and Vancouver).

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