Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnectAlex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for the media, Mr. Carrick holds a Masters in Economics.
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Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnectAlex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for
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Notes from the Trenches (14)
April 15th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- On the medical front, there are statistics on infection rates and mortality rates. Such data points are then held up against the figures that prevailed during the SARS and H1N1 outbreaks and the influenza scourge of 1918. On the business side, employment and GDP performances are assessed relative to what occurred during the Financial Crisis, the Great Depression and averages over of all recessions. There’s a lesson to be learned while swimming in this numbers-saturated sea: crises come and go, but statistics live forever.
- Add to the list of statistics a new one, the ‘compliance’ rate. The compliance rate is the proportion of the population that is adhering to ‘social distancing’. It’s a surprisingly high 90%. In initial ‘modeling’ about the spread of the disease, only 50% was the assumption made concerning the general population’s willingness to stay indoors to defeat this thing.
- ConstructConnect also has some new statistics, a ‘First Appearance’ series and a ‘Changed Status’ series. First Appearance figures track, on a seven-day rolling basis, the number of construction projects (mainly in the planning stage) that are newly discovered and inserted into CC’s database for information access by customers. On April 9, the First Appearance statistic for the U.S. was -26% month over month and -29% versus the same time last year. For Canada, the results were -40% m/m and -39% y/y. With the onset of the coronavirus crisis, the flow of new construction projects has slowed from a cascade to a trickle. Changed Status numbers will be set out in the next ‘Trenches’ story.
- Turns out there are some construction opportunities under the current circumstances. For example, school renovation work that would normally get underway in a couple of months, when students are on summer break, can now be brought forward. Many school districts have announced structure closures through the end of term.
- A similar situation prevails for roadwork. With greatly reduced vehicular traffic, having more lanes shut down can help to hurry along repaving and widening projects.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, banking, bids, build, Canada, cement, CMD, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction services, coronavirus, COVID-19, developers, house, interest rate, lumber, material, money, oil, recovery, residential, shareknowledge, steel, tenders
Category: ConstructConnect
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