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Archive for April 23rd, 2020

Monitoring the Economic Slide by Means of Graphs

Thursday, April 23rd, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

U.S. initial jobless claims for the latest week, ending April 18th, were 4.4 million. Only a minimal amount of encouragement can be taken from the fact the figure has been declining for three weeks in a row. A level of 4.4 million reached in only seven days is still horrifically high.

The sum of the weekly figures for the past five periods is 26.4 million. Not all that number will appear in the monthly unemployed tally to be reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in May, for April. A certain unknown percentage of UI seekers still have jobs, but they’ve moved from full-time to part-time.

Nevertheless, when one crunches the numbers and compares a likely figure for the number of unemployed versus the size of the civilian labor force (163 million), the best the unemployment rate can be at this time is 15.0%. And it doesn’t take much of an adjustment in assumptions to yield a 20.0% result.

Graph 1 

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Notes from the Trenches (20)

Thursday, April 23rd, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • There seem to be nearly unlimited ways in which society can separate into diverse factions (e.g., along lines tied to income, race, religion, sexual orientation, culinary taste, etc.). There’s one split, though, where the degree of difference exposed by the coronavirus crisis is being magnified to the ‘nth degree’. There are those who have acquired a degree of proficiency in using new high-tech tools, across a wide spectrum of applications, and those who have not. The age composition of the ‘not’ group is inordinately older. (I’m allowed to say that because I’m in the older demographic; they’re my ‘peeps’.)
  • Those who are comfortable with digital technology are staying on top of events, be they bad or good, as they unfold. When called upon by employers, they are managing to perform well in non-traditional ways (e.g. working entirely online), most often from their own homes. The counter position taken by those outside the cyber-space loop is that not everyone should need to be instantly accessible twenty-four hours, every day. And that perhaps there’s more joy in not being up on everything.

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