Archive for May 8th, 2020
Friday, May 8th, 2020
Article source: ConstructConnect
- Concerning COVID-19, possibly the best to be hoped for over the next many months will be the emergence of ‘herd immunity’. ‘Herd immunity’ will occur when approximately two-thirds of the population has been in contact with the coronavirus, creating enough antibody protection to severely slow its spread. Nevertheless, that will still leave one-third living under the sword of Damocles. Randomly, someday, somewhere, somehow, they may be touched by COVID-19 with possibly dire consequences. At least, that will be case until an effective vaccine has been created.
- This is where the science becomes fascinating, but also complicated. Apparently, there may be development of several different makes and models of COVID-19 vaccine. A standard vaccine uses a weakened version of the offending virus to prod a body into launching an overwhelming defense posture. A new ‘platform’ approach, with a shorter testing and approvals span, modifies a known closely related virus ‒ maybe even from the animal kingdom, since there are untold numbers of viruses with an incredible diversity of characteristics ‒ to become a harmless copycat of the latest interloper, in order to engage the body’s immune system and set in place a rapid deployment system to fight off future attacks.
(more…)
Tags: banking, bids, cement, Construction, coronavirus, COVID19, developers, Economy under, lumber, recovery, shareknowledge, steel, tenders Comments Off on Notes from the Trenches (31)
Friday, May 8th, 2020
Article source: ConstructConnect
Unemployment Rate at 14.7% could have been Worse
It could have been worse. I thought it would be worse. Next month’s figure will probably be worse.
I’m speaking of April’s U.S. seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate, as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It came in at 14.7%, after being just 4.4% in March.
If you’re looking for a figure that’s jaw-dropping, turn to the total number of jobs in the country. From March to April, there was a decline of 20.5 million.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, construct, Construction, Construction industry, coronavirus, COVID-19, Economic, Economics, Economist, job, jobless, jobs, money, recovery, residential, shareknowledge, US Comments Off on Article source: ConstructConnect C
Friday, May 8th, 2020
Article source: ConstructConnect
ConstructConnect, in its latest (Summer) quarterly construction starts forecast, is projecting -27.4% for 2020/2019 grand total dollars and -24.6% for square footage.
Why the big drop?
By the way, ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) GDP is likely to be something like -6% (annual/annual) and that is a big decline. The Q/Q change annualized in Q2 will be something like -25% to -30%.
Put-in-place construction spend numbers are much smoother than starts. They include a large percentage of work that is carried over from last year, so they’re not relevant for assessing what is occurring today. The put-in-place total, 2020/2019, will be on the order of -6% to -8%.
Now we come to construction starts. As background, in the last recession (2008-2009), the cumulative decline in ConstructConnect’s total starts through both years was greater than -30%.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economist, Economy, employment Comments Off on Why ConstructConnect is Forecasting a One-quarter Decline in U.S. Construction Starts This Year
|