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Archive for May 21st, 2020

U.S. and Canadian Housing Starts – A Suite of 10 Graphs

Thursday, May 21st, 2020

U.S. Home Starts -45% since January; Canada, -24%

The story of the recent deterioration in U.S. and Canadian housing starts can best be told through a series of graphs.

Both nations began this year with relatively high levels of residential groundbreakings. In January 2020, the U.S. recorded 1.617 million units seasonally adjusted at an annual rate (SAAR) and Canada, 219,000 units (also SAAR).

The decline in new home starts in the U.S. during the latest two months, however, has been brutal. First, they shrank to 1.3 million units in March, then to 0.9 million in April.

New home starts in America in April were cut by nearly half (-45%) versus January.

Canada’s contraction, January to April, has been one-quarter. The 166,000-unit figure for Canada in the latest month, though, comes with an asterisk. Construction in Quebec was shut down in April, yielding housing start counts of zero throughout the province. (Never before has there been a non-existent official number for housing starts in Montreal in any month.)

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Notes from the Trenches (39)

Thursday, May 21st, 2020

Article source: ConstructConnect

  • Matters pertaining to who is owed what due to the coronavirus crisis will soon fully engage the legal and insurance professions. But there is a segment of the business community, ‒ although more truly it’s off to the side, keeping an eye on things (i.e., companies and governments) ‒ that is about to step into the spotlight. The weight of the world, and I don’t say that lightly, is about to descend on debt rating agencies.
  • Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Moody’s, Fitch Group and others will be tasked with hair-raising responsibility. Debt is skyrocketing throughout the private and public sectors. A corporation or government receives a ratings downgrade (i.e., starting from Triple A and descending from there) when it is judged to be at greater risk of defaulting on its debt obligations (loans or bonds). The greater risk assessment forces it to pay more in carrying costs, regardless of whether the central bank is managing to keep its official interest rate low and stable.

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