Article source: ConstructConnect

ConstructConnect announced today that the latest month’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $28.6 billion (green shaded box, Table 4 below), down nearly one-quarter (-23.1%) versus June’s figure of $37.2 billion (originally reported as $37.6 billion).

July 2020 nonresidential starts versus July 2019 were a jaw-dropping -44.0%. Measures to combat COVID-19 have not only depressed general economic activity, including new construction undertakings, they have seriously suppressed go-aheads for mega projects (i.e., jobs valued at $1 billion or more each).

There was only one mega project start-up in July of this year ‒ $1.4 billion in rapid transit work in San Dimas California, east of Las Angeles (see Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – July 2020). Year to date in 2020, there have been only five mega project groundbreakings, summing to $9.45 billion. In July of last year alone, four mega projects were green-lighted for a combined $8.7 billion. (The largest was the Calcasieu Pass LNG facility in Louisiana, $4.5 billion).

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Article source: ConstructConnect

• Canada’s Jobs ‘Claw-Back’ Ratio Now Exceeds 50%
• A 60.1% Jobs Recovery Ratio for Canadian Construction
• Alberta’s Labour Market Struggling; But so is Ontario’s

Canada’s Jobs ‘Claw-Back’ Ratio Now Exceeds 50%

In July, the total number of jobs in Canada rose by 419,000, according to Statistics Canada, bringing the cumulative figure for the latest three months to +1.661 million. June’s number was +952,000 and May’s, +290,000.

In March and April, with the economy immobilized by fear of the coronavirus, the shrinkage in the total number of jobs nationwide was a staggering -3.0 million.

The offset of +1.661 million since April compared with -3.0 million in March-April, yields a ‘jobs recovery’ ratio of 55.3%.

From the middle portion of Table 1, titled ‘Pandemic,’ it can be seen that Canada’s employment claw-back ratio of 55.3% is better than the 37.3% result for the U.S., although it should be noted that Canada’s jobs drop in March-April of -15.7% exceeded America’s -13.5%.

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Article source: ConstructConnect

In July, according to the Employment Situation report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the total number of jobs in the U.S. climbed by 1.8 million (after gains of 4.8 million in June and 2.7 million in May) and the seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate eased to 10.2% (after readings of 11.1% in June, 13.0% in May and 14.4% in April).

The nation’s labor market was shredded by coronavirus-related shutdowns in early spring. It is now rebounding, but with less vigor than hoped for. Acting as a drag on jobs prospects have been de-railings of some state re-openings due to surges in new COVID-19 cases. As set out in Graph 1 at the end of this article, weekly initial jobless claims continue to exceed a million.

The big question is: “Where does the U.S. now stand with respect to employment recovery since February-to-April’s precipitous drop?”

Many of the most relevant numbers on the U.S. jobs recovery appear in Table 1.

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Article source: ConstructConnect

A Faint Echo of Normalcy in Hospitality Sales?

In the U.S., retail and food services sales are combined in a single monthly report from the Census Bureau. Also, the data is relatively current. Latest results are for June 2020.

In Canada, ‘retail sales’ appear in one report, but one must chase down ‘food services and drinking place’ sales from another location. Also, the Canadian information is somewhat ‘stale’. For example, the latest Canadian data is for May 2020. Nevertheless, it’s what’s available.

Year-over-year ‘restaurant and bar’ sales for Canada and the provinces are set out in the interactive graph appearing below. By now, it’s well-known that the biggest job losses in the economy resulting from the coronavirus contagion and ‘remedial’ distancing have occurred in the hospitality sector. Graph 1 offers further confirmation.

As recently as February, nation-wide ‘food services and drinking place’ sales were upbeat, +3.4% year over year. In March, though, circumstances altered significantly. The total Canada figure became -36.2% y/y. Furthermore, all provinces were affected to nearly the same degree. The year-over-year percentage declines were in a narrow range, moving from -30.4% y/y for Nova Scotia to -38.4% for Quebec.

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Article source: ConstructConnect

Average annual U.S. ‘real’ (i.e., after accounting for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the latest 20 years (2000 to 2019 inclusive) has been +2.1%; and for the past 10 years, +2.3%. The latest ten-year (2010 to 2019) annual average isn’t biased downwards by the 2008-2009 recession.

The eight states with the fastest annual average GDP growth rates over the past ten complete years have been: North Dakota, +4.7%; Washington, +3.6%; Texas, +3.5%; California, +3.3%; Utah, +3.2%; Colorado and Oregon, each at +3.0%; and South Carolina (+2.5%).

North Dakota’s rapid growth was front-end loaded. Bakken shale oil development sent the state’s output level soaring in 2011 and 2012, to the tune of +11.3% and +22.4% respectively. During the past seven ‘quieter’ years, North Dakota’s annual average GDP gain has been only +0.8%.

Only two states were burdened with annual average GDP growth rates that were negative in the past decade, Wyoming (-0.5%) and Alaska (-0.2%). Two others, though, managed only minimal headway, Connecticut and Louisiana, both at +0.1%. Mississippi and Delaware also didn’t have much to celebrate, each at +0.5%.

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