U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in Q3 2020 increased by about 1/3 after falling to about the same degree in Q2, but it is still 5% under what it would have been without the onset of the coronavirus crisis.
There are two jobs numbers that will tell us when the economy has returned to nearly robust health:
- Versus the huge drop in employment between February and April, the number of jobs recovered to date has yielded a decent claw-back ratio (50%), but it needs to rise a lot higher. Not until the jobs-recovery ratio approaches 90% will there be strong confidence that the economy is firmly back on track.
- The weekly initial jobless claims number is proving to be sticky. For more than 30 weeks, it has exceeded its peak level (just under 700,000) achieved in the 2008-2009 recession. Last week, it was close to 800,000. I’d like to see the figure drop to at least 400,000 … and 300,000 or lower would be that much better.
Everyone knows that consumer spending comprises 70% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). In turn, retail sales make up a little less than half of consumer spending. Monthly retail sales numbers say a great deal about what is going on both in society and in the economy.
Presently, Internet sales are ahead by one-quarter year over year, because of the surge in shopping from home that is taking place. This also explains why ‘bricks and mortar’ retail in shopping malls is so distressed.
