Looming largest as an indicator of how well the U.S. economy can perform in the short run is the coronavirus case count. The number of new COVID-19 infections is now averaging 250,000 per day. Deaths have recently been exceeding 4,000 per day, with a cumulative mortality figure since March of 2020 that will soon surpass 400,000.
If there are any doubts about the toll this is taking on business conditions, consider weekly initial jobless claims. They dropped below a million in late August of last year and appeared to be settling in around 750,000. For the latest week, though, ending January 9, 2021, they shot back up again by +181,000, to reach a level of 965,000.
The number of individuals collecting ongoing unemployment insurance also increased in the latest period, to 5.3 million from 5.1 million at the end of last year. (Prior to COVID, the unemployed insurance recipient count was consistently below 2.0 million.)
