This latest version of the mid-month Nuggets report, rather than proceeding in point form, discussing recent data releases, will be expository concerning some of the most important economic issues of the day.
Until last Thursday, April 15th, whenever thoughts of a considerably cheerier economic outlook arose, there was a giant BUT that stood in the way. Weekly initial jobless claims as a leading indicator continued to be stuck in the stratosphere. How could one speak confidently of an upcoming surge in demand when the number of individuals seeking unemployment insurance for the first time remained higher than the peak level in the previous recession, 2008-2009 (see Graph 1).
Initial jobless claims were close to or well above 700,000 for a full year, after the coronavirus pandemic first lit into the economy in mid-March of last year. With last Thursday’s result, however, for the week ending April 10th, the number finally showed the kind of improvement needed to put the past aside and begin to look encouragingly towards the future. It dropped by -193,000 to settle at 576,000, finally descending through the 600,000-benchmark. There’s legitimate hope that in short order it will break through 500,000, then 400,000, as well. (The month-to-month pickup in total U.S. employment in March exceeded a million jobs, including the revision to February’s originally reported number.)
