Initial Jobless Claims and UI on Right Track
This article features a quick overview of the latest key statistics for the U.S. and Canadian economies, presented mainly in graph form.
For starters, U.S. initial jobless claims have finally dropped to a reasonable level, just above 400,000 for the week ending May 22nd. Prior to the pandemic, with the economy chugging along near full speed, initial jobless claims consistently sat between 200,000 and 300,000.
Therefore, once they fall below 300,000 again, there’ll be good reason to believe that a true return to ‘normal’ has been achieved.
The number of individuals receiving unemployment insurance is also trending down in a positive way. The latest weekly figure was 3.642 million, a falloff of nearly -100,000. In the best of times, the number is shy of two million.
Archive for May, 2021
Volatility the Name of the Game with Latest Economic Data Releases
Thursday, May 27th, 2021Booms in U.S. & Canadian Housing: One Tentative, the Other Boisterous
Tuesday, May 25th, 2021
When presenting housing starts for the U.S. and Canada, the Census Bureau and CMHC first seasonally adjust monthly ‘actual’ units and then annualize them, to arrive at what are termed SAAR (seasonally adjusted and annualized) figures. ‘Annualizing’ takes the monthly number and projects it out over 12 months.
The January-April average of the four monthly SAAR figures for the U.S. so far this year is 1.594 million units, +18.2% when compared with January-April 2020’s average. Since the Fall of last year, a mini new housing construction boom has been underway in America.
Canada’s January-April average of monthly SAAR starts has been 295,700 units, +50.5% versus the comparable average managed in the first four months of last year. In Canada, the boom in residential groundbreakings isn’t speaking tentatively, rather it’s shouting.
Graph 1
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Mid-May Economic Nuggets Report with Focus on Retail Sales, Inflation and Housing Starts
Wednesday, May 19th, 2021
In this, the latest mid-month Nuggets report, I’ll focus on three major and interlocking (or interdependent) economic indicators: retail sales, inflation and housing starts.
Retail Sales
My world of economic analysis is being rocked in unprecedented fashion. Maybe ‘shattered’ is the better word.
For example, I’m used to studying year-over-year percentage changes to gain an understanding of what is going on in certain segments of the economy. Retail sales is a perfect example. In current dollar terms (i.e., not adjusted for inflation), they used to range from flat as a lower boundary to maybe +7% y/y as an upper limit.
When the coronavirus first struck in the Spring of last year, retail sales plummeted, yielding double-digit percentage-change drops for ‘total’ and many shopkeeper sub-categories. Now, a year later, the rebound that’s underway is being vastly exaggerated by the comparison with 2020’s deeply distressed results. Looking at April 2021/April 2020, we’re dealing with ‘funhouse’ numbers on the upside.
Shockingly High Material Cost Hikes Set out in 2 Tables & 24 Graphs
Tuesday, May 18th, 2021
An important story that’s emerging in what are hopefully the winding-down days of the pandemic concerns supply shortages and cost hikes.
The all-items U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has been consistently under +2.0% year over year for an extended period, suddenly shot up to +4.2% y/y in April, as a result of moving +0.8% in just one month.
As everyday shoppers, you and I may feel we have something to gripe about. But consider the plight of the unfortunate contracting community. Our soaring expense frustrations pale beside what beleaguered contractors are facing.
Table 1 shows y/y and latest-three-month price hikes for 15 major construction materials and some of the key ingredients of building products (e.g., aluminum in ventilation systems).
Table 1 is a subset of Table 2 which appears at the end of this article and includes a comprehensive list of construction material inputs and special indices. All the numbers come from the Producer Price Index (PPI) data set compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Canada Stubs Toe Along Jobs Recovery Path
Monday, May 10th, 2021
Coronavirus Continues Negative Influence
Canada suffered a disappointing setback in its quest for jobs recovery in April. According to Statistics Canada, total employment fell by -207,000 jobs in the month, as further incursions of the coronavirus forced stricter closure regimes in many parts of the county.
The seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate rose to 8.1% from 7.5% in March; the not seasonally adjusted (NSA) rate rose to 7.1% from 6.9%. There’s some consolation to be found in knowing the SA and NSA unemployment rates a year ago were much higher at 13.1% and 12.1% respectively.
+266,000 for Total U.S. Jobs Not So Great; +331,000 for Leisure & Hospitality Jobs Rates Cheers
Friday, May 7th, 2021
A Number to Embrace with Enthusiasm
April’s Employment Situation report, released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), records an increase in total U.S. employment of +266,000 jobs month to month. While plus a quarter of a million net new jobs seems, on first blush, to be an impressive figure, Graph 1 makes clear that it registers as only a minor blip in the context of the employment swings we’ve been seeing over the past 14 months.
Furthermore, due to a slight uptick in the participation rate, from 61.5% in March to 61.7% in April, the seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate in the latest month deteriorated to 6.1% from 6.0% in the prior month.
But there is one number on the jobs front to be embraced with enthusiasm. The ‘leisure and hospitality’ sector has been bearing the brunt of the economic downturn initiated by the coronavirus infection outbreak last year. Finally, a turning point appears to have been reached.
Coincident with the aggressive vaccine rollout and timed to greet warmer and healthier summer weather, bars and restaurants have dramatically changed tack. In April, staffing in the sector shot ahead by +331,000 jobs. The year-over-year increase in ‘leisure and hospitality’ employment was +69.1%.
Such an outsized percentage-change figure highlights an effect we’ll be seeing for months to come. Because of the big drop in jobs in March-April of 2020, comparisons of the current year with last year will benefit from a low base (i.e., low denominator) in the math calculation.
Latest stock market results for key North American and international indices
Tuesday, May 4th, 2021
Below are the latest stock market results for key North American and international indices, all in standalone graphics form and as of closing April 30th.
