A Number to Embrace with Enthusiasm
April’s Employment Situation report, released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), records an increase in total U.S. employment of +266,000 jobs month to month. While plus a quarter of a million net new jobs seems, on first blush, to be an impressive figure, Graph 1 makes clear that it registers as only a minor blip in the context of the employment swings we’ve been seeing over the past 14 months.
Furthermore, due to a slight uptick in the participation rate, from 61.5% in March to 61.7% in April, the seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate in the latest month deteriorated to 6.1% from 6.0% in the prior month.
But there is one number on the jobs front to be embraced with enthusiasm. The ‘leisure and hospitality’ sector has been bearing the brunt of the economic downturn initiated by the coronavirus infection outbreak last year. Finally, a turning point appears to have been reached.
Coincident with the aggressive vaccine rollout and timed to greet warmer and healthier summer weather, bars and restaurants have dramatically changed tack. In April, staffing in the sector shot ahead by +331,000 jobs. The year-over-year increase in ‘leisure and hospitality’ employment was +69.1%.
Such an outsized percentage-change figure highlights an effect we’ll be seeing for months to come. Because of the big drop in jobs in March-April of 2020, comparisons of the current year with last year will benefit from a low base (i.e., low denominator) in the math calculation.
