June’s Nonresidential Construction Starts +14% M/M, But -11% YTD

Article source: ConstructConnect

A Compelling Megaproject Story

ConstructConnect announced today that June 2021’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $38.4 billion (green shaded box, Table 8 below), an increase of +14.4% vs May 2021’s $33.6 billion (originally reported as $32.5 billion).

Compared with June 2020, the latest month’s dollar volume of total nonresidential starts was -4.3%. On a year-to-date basis (i.e., Jan-Jun 2021/Jan-Jun 2020), total nonresidential starts have been -10.9%.

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June 2021 compared with June 2020 serves up an interesting story concerning megaprojects and other large project initiations. A megaproject is defined as carrying an estimated value of a billion dollars or more and/or occupying a million square feet or more.

Among June 2021 groundbreakings, Pittsburgh’s International Airport Terminal modernization has an estimated value of $1.4 billion. But there are also two big hospital projects, in New Jersey and Michigan, that when added together, exceed a billion dollars. And there are two Amazon fulfillment projects, both in Louisiana (Baton Rouge and Shreveport), of less than a billion dollars each, but which account for more than three million square feet each.

In June 2020, there was one project of more than a billion dollars, light rail rapid transit work in Seattle (Federal Way link), but—and here’s where the tale becomes really interesting—similar to June 2021, there were two other Amazon distribution center projects, in New York and Texas, of over three million square feet each.

The extent to which Amazon has been able to maintain its expansion program, even during the worst of the pandemic, plus the support the company has provided the construction industry, have been remarkable.

Residential Starts Have Walked a Sunnier Path

Residential starts have, for the most part, been performing considerably better than nonresidential starts. While residential starts in June 2021 were flat month to month, -0.1%, they were +12.5% year over year (Jun 2021/Jun 2020) and +22.7% year to date (Jan-Jun 2021/Jan-Jun 2020).

Therefore, ‘grand total’ starts (i.e., residential plus nonresidential) in June 2021 were modestly upbeat, +7.6% m/m; +2.4% y/y; and +2.1% ytd.

Highly Unusual 50-50 Split in Res vs Nonres PIP Stats

‘Starts’ compile the total estimated dollar value and square footage of all projects on which ground is broken in any given month. They lead, by nine months to as much as two years, put-in-place (PIP) statistics which are analogous to work-in-progress payments as the building of structures proceeds to completion.

PIP numbers cover the ‘universe’ of construction, new plus all manner of renovation activity, with residential traditionally making up two-fifths (about 40%) of the total and nonresidential, three-fifths (i.e., the bigger portion, at around 60%). Presently, though, according to the Census Bureau’s May 2021 not-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) PIP numbers for total U.S., the year-to-date mix has shifted dramatically. The residential to nonresidential relationship has become approximately half and half (i.e., 49.5%-to-50.5% respectively). The Census Bureau’s May 2021 NSA ytd PIP results are +4.6% for total; +23.4%, residential; and -8.6%, nonresidential (i.e., nonresidential buildings plus engineering).

PIP numbers, being more spread out, have smaller peak-over-trough percent-change amplitudes than the ‘starts’ series. As an additional valuable service for clients and powered by its extensive ‘starts’ database, ConstructConnect, in partnership with Oxford Economics, a world leader in econometric modeling, has developed put-in-place construction statistics by types of structure for U.S. states, cities, and counties, ‘actuals’ and forecasts. ConstructConnect’s PIP numbers are being released quarterly and are featured in a separate reporting system.

Construction Employment Retreats in 4 of Last 5 Months

Total employment in U.S. construction has declined in four of the past five months (see Graph 1). March 2021 recorded a nice increase, +93,000 jobs, but the decrease in the other four months, February to June inclusive, has totaled -95,000 jobs, yielding a net result near zero.

Construction’s year-over-year jobs gain has been +3.3%, slower than for ‘all jobs’ in the economy, +5.7%. The ‘all jobs’ figure has received a boost from the notable recovery in ‘leisure and hospitality’ employment (i.e., jobs with motels/hotels and in bars and restaurants) of +21.2% y/y. This is where the floor fell out on employment when coronavirus infections first reared up and ‘stay-at-home’ directives were issues as the remedial response.

The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) unemployment rate in June 2021 was 7.5%, up a little from May 2021’s 6.7%, but better than June 2020’s 10.1%. ‘Leisure and hospitality’s’ current NSA unemployment rate, at 10.3%, remains worse than for construction, but consider that a year earlier it had been 28.9%. The economy-wide U.S. NSA U rate is presently 6.1%, 10.5% 12 months prior.

The latest year-over-year jobs count changes for some other corners of the economy with close ties to construction have been: architectural and engineering services, +4.7%; real estate activities, +4.5%; building material suppliers, +2.8%; oil and gas extraction, +2.7%; cement and concrete product manufacturing, -1.5%; and machinery and equipment rental and leasing, -2.7%.

Graph 1: Change in Level of U.S. Construction Employment, Month to Month (M/M) −
Total & by Categories – June 2021

Graph 2: U.S. Employment June 2021 – % Change Y/Y
Based on Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data

Graph 3: Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − June 2021 (based on seasonally adjusted payroll data)

Table 1: Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ June 2021

Medical Facility Starts Spring to Life

June’s +14.4% month-to-month (m/m) increase in total nonresidential starts was thanks to substantial jumps in the institutional, +47.1%, and commercial, +30.4%, type-of-structure sub-categories. Those increases overcame industrial’s weakness, -60.0%, and heavy engineering/civil’s indifferent performance, -0.7%.

The -4.3% shrinkage in total nonresidential starts year over year (y/y) in June 2021 (i.e., vs June 2020) resulted from notable declines in engineering, -10.3%, and industrial, -5.1%; and a small contraction in commercial, -1.5%; while institutional was a little ahead, +2.3%.

June 2021’s year-to-date (ytd) total nonresidential starts shortfall of -10.9% was due to all four major type-of-structure subcategories falling behind, with commercial being most sluggish, -21.0%; followed by institutional, -11.4%; industrial, -9.7%; and engineering, -4.8%.

Delving deeper into type-of-structure subcategories, through the first half of 2021 the ‘road/highway’ and ‘school/college’ designations together accounted for slightly more than one-third of total nonresidential starts. At 16.9% and 17.8%, their respective shares were nearly equal. Also, they were well ahead of the 9.1% for third place ‘water/sewer’ (although they were about on a par with health care starts as a combined category; see two paragraphs down). June 2021’s three timeframe comparisons for street starts were -10.3% m/m; -3.5% y/y; and -1.8% ytd. For educational facility starts, the three metrics were -21.1% y/y and -17.9% ytd, but +21.3% m/m.

‘Water/sewage’ starts have been the only engineering subcategory to maintain a year-to-date advantage, +9.8%, through the first half of 2021. ‘Bridge’ starts have fallen off the pace, -25.0% ytd. ‘Miscellaneous civil’, at -2.3% ytd, is a step behind 2020, but its m/m change in June 2021 was a striking, +58.6%, with help coming from a wind-power farm in Texas (see Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – June 2021).

Within institutional starts in June 2021, groundbreakings on medical facilities were standouts. ‘Hospital/clinic’ starts were +44.6% ytd; +91.0% y/y; and +278.7% m/m (note the two hospital projects appearing in the Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – June 2021). ‘Nursing/assisted living’ starts were -20.7% ytd; but +30.8% y/y; and +68.0% m/m. ‘Miscellaneous medical’ starts were -26.6% ytd; but +47.4% y/y; and +63.5% m/m. Combined starts for the three medical sub-categories were +6.8% ytd; +63.9% y/y; and +144.0% m/m. Collectively, they accounted for 15.2% of H1’s total nonresidential starts, not far off the portions claimed by schools and roads/highways.

Within commercial, ‘private office building’ starts in June 2021 were especially grim, -10.1% m/m; -55.7% y/y; and -46.0% ytd. ‘Hotel/motel’ starts were -52.3% ytd; but they were not nearly as bad y/y, -0.8%, and m/m, -1.2%. ‘Retail/shopping’ starts have surprised on the upside: +25.0% m/m; +44.4% y/y; and +6.1% ytd. Warehouse starts have not been able to keep up with last year: -2.6% m/m; -41.1% y/y; and -17.9% ytd. Finally, ‘miscellaneous commercial,’ which includes ‘transportation terminals’ (e.g., at airports; again, see largest projects listing on page 8), turned in stellar numbers in June 2021: +472.6% m/m; +312.4% y/y; and +25.6% ytd.

Table 2: Construction Starts in Some Additional Type of Structure Sub-Categories

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

JOLTS Statistics Speak to Paradigm Shifts

Monthly JOLTS numbers are proving effective at exposing a wide-ranging and significant problem that exists for the economy overall as it exits the pandemic. JOLTS is an acronym for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Graph 5 demonstrates that job ‘openings’ in construction, both as a level and a rate, have been soaring for a year and appear set to reach their previous peaks. But then why are the ‘hires’ statistics as a level, but even more so as a rate, from Graph 6, so anemic? This is a conundrum that is bedeviling not only construction but many other sectors as well.

There’s a mismatch between skills needed and skills available. Also, many workers, under the strain of coronavirus lockdowns, have been contemplating adjustments in their career choices. Also, consciously or otherwise, labor may have come to realize that through deglobalization and other such paradigm shifts underway, it has acquired more leverage in setting workplace conditions. One consequence is almost surely to be more rapid wage increases.

Graph 5: U.S. Construction Job Openings (from JOLTS Report)
(3-month Moving Averages placed in Latest Month)

Graph 6: U.S. Construction Job Hires (from JOLTS Report)
(3-month Moving Averages placed in Latest Month)

Several Starts Trend Lines Shifting to Level Planes

The descents in some of the 12-month moving average trend lines (Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – June 2021) have recently shifted to level planes. A flattening of the curves is apparent for both nonresidential building (especially commercial) and heavy engineering.

Among more specific categories, ‘retail’ has finally touched bottom and is rising again. ‘Hospitals/clinics’ has flattened out, although at a yet unimpressive level. ‘Roads/highways’ and ‘water/sewage’ have also moved parallel to the x-axis, but at decently high positions, based on history. Three categories remain in freefall: ‘private office buildings;’ ‘schools/colleges;’ and ‘bridges.’ The latter is unexpected, given all the recent talk about infrastructure spending needs.

‘All Jobs’ & Construction Worker Pay Hikes Trending to +4% Y/Y

Tables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report record average hourly and average weekly wages for industry sectors. B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses) on non-farm payrolls. B-8 is for ‘production and nonsupervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludes bosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there are eight relevant percentage changes to consider.

Over the past dozen or so months, there have been some major discrepancies between the y/y compensation rates going to all employees versus the subgrouping comprised of construction workers. In June 2021, however, the earnings gains moved into closer alignment. From Table B-3 (including bosses), ‘all-jobs’ wage hikes y/y in the latest month were +3.6% hourly and +3.9% weekly. Construction workers saw close to the same pay-check upticks, +3.9% hourly and +3.4% weekly. From Table B-8 (excluding supervisors), latest ‘all jobs’ pay advances were +3.7% hourly and +4.3% weekly. Again, construction workers were in the same ballpark, +4.0% both hourly and weekly. By the way, around +4.0% y/y marks a ‘creeping higher’ tendency, which in a long-term historical context, the economy has not been used to seeing for some time.

Table 3: 2021 YTD Ranking of Top 20 States by $ Volume of Nonresidential Construction Starts – ConstructConnect

Figures are comprised of non-res building & engineering (residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Table 4: 2021 YTD Ranking of Top 20 States by $ Volume of Nonresidential Building Construction Starts – ConstructConnect

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Table 5: 2021 YTD Ranking of Top 20 States by $ Volume of Heavy/Engineering Civil Construction Starts – ConstructConnect

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Bid Price Hike Still Well Short of Cost Escalation

May 2021’s y/y results for three structures-related BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) series were as follows: ‘construction materials special index,’ +30.0% (up several more rungs from April’s +23.8%); ‘inputs to new construction index, excluding capital investment, labor, and imports,’ +24.0% (climbing further from the prior period’s +18.8%); and ‘final demand construction,’ designed to capture bid prices, +2.8% (ahead slightly from the previous month’s +2.1%). The enormous disparities lead one to wonder how long contractors can continue to absorb expense spikes, while mainly holding the line on revenue, without serious fallout? Thankfully, some relief in material cost escalation, particularly for forestry products, is beginning to occur.

The value of construction starts each month is derived from ConstructConnect’s database of all active construction projects in the United States. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models. ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are super-large, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy.

June 2021’s ‘Grand Total’ Starts +2.1% YTD

From Table 8 of this report below, ConstructConnect’s total residential starts in June were -0.1% m/m, but +12.5% y/y and +22.7% ytd. The latest month’s multi-unit starts were -13.1% m/m and -20.0% y/y, but +0.1% ytd. Single-family starts in the latest month were +3.9% m/m, +25.5% y/y and +32.3% ytd. Including home building with all nonresidential categories, Grand Total starts in June 2021 were +7.6% m/m, +2.4% y/y and +2.1% ytd.

ConstructConnect adopts a research-assigned ‘start’ date. In concept, a ‘start’ is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed. If work is abandoned or re-bid, the ‘start’ date is revised to reflect the new information.

Expansion Index Monitors Construction Prospects

The economy may be in recovery mode, but nonresidential work is usually a lagging player. Companies are hesitant to undertake capital spending until their personnel needs are rapidly expanding and their office square footage or plant footprints are straining capacity. Also, it helps if profits are abundant. (Today’s greater tendency to work from home has made office occupancy much more difficult to assess.)

Each month, ConstructConnect publishes information on upcoming construction projects on its Expansion Index.

The Expansion Index, for hundreds of cities in the United States and Canada, calculates the ratio, based on dollar volume, of projects in the planning stage, at present, divided by the comparable figure a year ago. The ratio moves above 1.0 when there is currently a larger dollar volume of construction ‘prospects’ than there was last year at the same time. The ratio sinks below 1.0 when the opposite is the case. The results are set out in interactive maps for both countries.

Click here to download the Construction Industry Snapshot Package – June 2021 PDF.

Click here for the Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – June 2021.

Click here for the Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – June 2021.

TABLE 6: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS
June 2021 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT

*Includes transportation terminals and sports arenas.

Source: ConstructConnect Research Group and ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 7: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
CONSTRUCTCONNECT INSIGHT VERSION – JUNE 2021
Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT

Table 2 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks nonresidential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial, and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers. Table 3 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect Insight.

Source: ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 8: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS – JUNE 2021 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 9: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL STARTS,
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION* — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

*Figures above are comprised of nonres building and engineering (i.e., residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Tags: Alex Carrick, Economic, Economist, Economy, employ, employment, Housing, interest rate, job, lumber, shareknowledge, steel, US

Category: ConstructConnect

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