Article source: ConstructConnect
Much is continuing to happen on the economic front. Let’s dig right in with a look at the results from the latest public and private sector data releases.
(1) According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. ‘real’ (i.e., after adjustment for inflation) gross domestic product shrinkage in full-year 2020 relative to full-year 2019 was -3.5%. The GDP performances in the latest five quarters for which data is available have been: 2020 Q1 = -5.0%; 2020 Q2 = -31.4%; 2020 Q3 = +33.4%; 2020 Q4 = +4.3%; and 2021 Q1 = +6.4%. The preceding numbers are quarter to quarter results, annualized (i.e., projected out as if they applied for a full 12 months.) The Q2 2021 GDP number will be released on July 29th.
(2) The U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index improved from 120.0 in May to 127.3 in June. The base for the index is 1985 = 100.0. While 127.3 is a high level, it doesn’t quite reach the figures near 140 attained at times, on a monthly basis, in 2018 and 2019; which is to say, before the arrival of the coronavirus pandemic. But also know that the monthly measure of consumer confidence sank into the low 80s on occasion last year, when COVID infections were raging and much of the economy was temporarily sidelined.
