Article source: ConstructConnect

Among America’s dozen most populous cities, the five with the lowest unemployment rates, according to the latest (i.e., for November 2021) ‘household survey’ conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), are Atlanta (2.2% not seasonally adjusted/NSA), Phoenix (2.8%), Washington (3.6%), Miami (3.7%) and San Francisco (3.8%).

A low unemployment rate is only half the story, however, when it comes to evaluating whether a city has a vibrant labor market. At least as important is a healthy record of jobs creation.

On that score, Atlanta and Phoenix fare well, with the latter slightly outperforming the former. Jobs growth in Phoenix is currently +5.6% year over year; by comparison, Atlanta is +5.1%.

Miami and San Francisco can also boast of hiring success. Employment in the former is +5.3% y/y, while in the latter, it’s +5.0% y/y.

Washington’s y/y staffing increase of +4.1% is a little below the national ‘all jobs’ rate of +4.5% y/y.

Table 1 takes the labor market analysis beyond just the biggest 12 cities in the nation. Table 1 is based on the results for all 50-plus U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) that have populations of at least a million residents.

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There is much to discuss in this latest mid-month ‘Nuggets’ report, so let’s dive right in.

• The U.S. seven-day average COVID case count, mainly stemming from the Omicron variant, is currently 807,000. The number is continuing to climb, although at a slower pace than a week or two ago. What are the present seven-day average infection rates in the four biggest-population states? California is at 119,000 and still ascending; Texas is at 69,000 and, likewise, still apparently climbing; New York, 53,000 and down by a quarter from its peak of a week ago; and Florida, 58,000, down by a third from its worst number.

• Canada’s seven-day average COVID case count is 40,000, dipping just a little from its highest point. Ontario and Quebec are currently running about 10,000 cases per day each. In Ontario, that’s a drop of nearly half from peak; in Quebec, it’s a pullback of a third. Alberta’s seven-day average case count is 6,000 and not far off peak. Neighboring B.C. has a case count of just 2,400. The biggest flare-ups of late have been in the relatively small-population provinces of Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan.

• Quebec is adopting the strictest vaccination policy among provinces and states. Premier Legault has announced plans for a special health care tax to be paid by the unvaccinated. In Europe, Austria will be implementing a mandatory vaccination policy on February 1, with steep fines for those who don’t comply. President Macron of France has said he wants to make everyday life for the unvaccinated in his country quite ‘uncomfortable’.

• China, which is experiencing a rapidly aging population due to its earlier (and since abandoned) one child policy, plus an extreme gender imbalance in the country (i.e., there are 34 million more males than females), saw its annual number of births in 2021 contract by -12% vs 2020. ‘Demography’ is how you spell trouble for China over the longer term.

• China’s 2021 ‘real’ (after adjustment for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been estimated at +8.1%. The pace of Chinese GDP growth has slowed recently, however, due to insolvency problems among some major residential real estate developers (e.g., Evergrande and others) and renewed outbreaks of COVID contagion in several cities and ports (Tianjin and Dalian). The latter are particularly concerning since they threaten lockdowns, which will compound international supply chain distress. Nevertheless, the Winter Olympics are scheduled to open on Friday, February 4th.

• The U.S. inflation rate in December, defined as the year-over-year change in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), was +7.0%. That’s an enormous increase. It’s sending politicians and central bankers into a kerfuffle, looking for a quick fix, which will surely prove elusive. The ‘core’ rate of inflation omits highly volatile energy and food items, and it was less torrid, +5.5% y/y. The price of gasoline was up by half (+49.6%) y/y.

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Article source: ConstructConnect

Currently, there’s no letup in the rising tide of construction material costs.

Graph 1 shows that the average year-over-year increase for two material cost indices published along with Producer Price Index (PPI) results by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is forging ahead more than twice as speedily as bid prices (i.e., +26.6% y/y vs +12.4%).

Graph 2 showcases that 13 of 15 major construction input indices published by the BLS registered double-digit year-over-year percentage increases in December 2021. After energy-related prices (i.e., +69.5% for asphalt; +67.4% for regular unleaded gasoline; and +54.9% for diesel fuel), the largest gain was +58.9% for steel bars, plates, and structural shapes.

Aluminum mill shapes and copper wire and cable weren’t up to quite the same degree, but +29.8% y/y and +20.7% y/y are nothing to scoff at nonetheless,

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Article source: ConstructConnect

The increase in the total number of jobs in the U.S. between the two finishing months of 2021, November and December, according to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), was +199,000.

The U.S. jobs recovery ratio (or ‘clawback’ ratio) with respect to the huge drop in employment that occurred between February and April 2020, is now 84.0%.

U.S. total employment is -2.3% compared with its level in February 2020, which was the last ‘normal’ month before the dire health consequences tied to the coronavirus began kicking the stuffing out of the economy.

The sector adding the most net new jobs in December was ‘leisure and hospitality’, +53,000, with ‘food services and drinking places’ taking on staff to the tune of +43,000. This sector’s likely to see quite a reversal in January, due to the flare up in COVID cases resulting from the Omicron variant.

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