Article source: ConstructConnect

North America’s major stock markets sailed through the latest October in fine fettle. October historically has been the month when some of the biggest stock market disasters have occurred. There was the infamous Crash of 1929 and Black Monday of 1987.

But this time around, it was smooth sailing. And that was despite statements by the Federal Reserve that further interest rate hikes are in the offing. In fact, today, November 2, a further 75 basis point bump in the federal funds rate is almost guaranteed (where 100 basis points = 1.00%).

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting as this article is being written and it has another session scheduled this year for December 13-14. The top of the range for the federal funds rate will soon be 4.00%. The key question concerns how much further it will be lifted.

Article source: ConstructConnect

After a gloomy patch in late summer and early fall, dominated by discussion of inflation and recession, the economic and construction news is beginning to lighten a bit. The first ray of sunshine has come in the 2022 third quarter ‘advance estimate’ GDP report. Rather than retreating or standing still, Q3 ‘real’ gross domestic product advanced by +2.6% seasonally adjusted and annualized, improving nicely on the -0.6% and -1.6% performances of Q2 and Q1 respectively.

It’s also interesting to note the BEA’s upbeat revisions to the 2021 and 2020 year-over-year annual results. 2021’s gain was moved up a little to +5.9% from an earlier estimated +5.7% and 2020’s decline was reduced to -2.8%, as opposed to -3.4%. The -2.8% showing in 2020 was a remarkable achievement, given the coronavirus-generated chaos in the first half of the year. According to the revised estimate of GDP change in 2020 (at -2.8% y/y), it wasn’t much worse than the -2.6% that occurred in 2009 (see Graph 1).

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