Archive for the ‘ConstructConnect’ Category
Monday, December 17th, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
The tail that is attempting to wag the dog these days is the stock market. With only two weeks remaining in 2018, America’s major stock market indices have moved, at best, sideways versus close-of-year 2017. The Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI) is currently -0.5% relative to its closing level on December 31 of last year. The S&P 500 is -0.9% and NASDAQ, -2.4%.
North of the border, the Toronto Stock Exchange is -9.0% compared with year-end 2017.
The FANG stocks have been leading the retreat in equity prices. Since the summer of this year, the share price of Facebook, which has experienced confidentiality problems galore, is -29.2%; Amazon, the retail sector’s ‘disruptor-in-chief’, is -19.9%; Netflix is -34.1%; and Google/Alphabet, -16.2%. Even Apple has moved out of favor, -26.3%. On August 2nd, Apple became the world’s first trillion-dollar company, but of course that valuation no longer stands.
The Federal Reserve has been paying attention. Earlier, the Chairman of the Fed was adamant that he wanted to see the federal funds rate return to its ‘equilibrium’ or neutral level of 3.00%. Neutrality is when prevailing interest rates are neither too stimulatory nor too contractionary.
The current level of the federal funds rate is in a range of 2.00% to 2.25%. The likelihood is still high there will be another 25 basis-point (where 100 basis points equals 1.00%) increase later in this month of December. The schedule for next year, however, is no longer as firmly established. Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, has stated that future action on interest rates will be ‘data driven’.
By the way, the stock markets also really don’t like the tariff skirmish with China. Whenever there is even a hint of a resolution of that dispute, investors respond ecstatically.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, build, Canada, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Construction services, Economic, Economics, Economist, Growth, home, US
Comments Off on 13 Mid-December Economic Nuggets
Friday, December 14th, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
The accompanying table records the top 10 project starts in the U.S. for November 2018.
There are several reasons for highlighting upcoming large projects. Such jobs have often received a fair amount of media coverage. Therefore, people in the industry are on the lookout for when jobsite work actually gets underway. And, as showcase projects, they highlight geographically where major construction projects are proceeding.
Also, total construction activity is comprised of many small and medium-sized projects and a limited number of large developments. But the largest projects, simply by their nature, can dramatically affect total dollar and square footage volumes. In other words, the timing and size of these projects have an exaggerated influence on market forecasts.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, Construction, Construction industry, Economic, Economy, Growth, US
Comments Off on Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – November 2018
Thursday, December 13th, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
ConstructConnect announced today that November’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $27.4 billion, the lowest level since February ($26.6 billion) of this year.
On a month-to-month basis, November’s nonresidential starts fell by nearly one-quarter (-22.6%). The usual seasonal pullback, due to harsher winter-onset weather, is in a range of -2% to -7%. November 2018 compared with November 2017 was -9.8%. November 2018 relative to the previous five-year average for November, − i.e., from 2013 through 2017, − was +0.9%.
Year-to-date starts in 2018 compared with January-to-November of 2017 have been -4.0%. There is only one month still to go, December, before 2018’s annual results will be tabulated.
The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they altered for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars.
View this information as an infographic.
‘Nonresidential building’ plus ‘engineering/civil’ work accounts for a larger share of total construction than residential activity. The former’s combined proportion of total put-in-place construction in the Census Bureau’s October report was 59%; the latter’s was 41%.
ConstructConnect’s construction starts are leading indicators for the Census Bureau’s capital investment or put-in-place series. Also, the reporting period for starts (i.e., November 2018) is one month ahead of the reporting period for the investment series (i.e., October 2018.)
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Tags: Alex Carrick, build, commercial, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economic, Economics, Economist, Economy, job, non-residential
Comments Off on Rough Patch for Nonresidential Starts in November, But YTD Decline Remained Modest
Friday, December 7th, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
There was a dramatic reversal in fortune on the jobs front between the U.S. and Canada in November.
It wasn’t that the U.S. number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was so bad. At +155,000, it slowed from +237,000 the month before, but it was still a solid increase.
Rather, it was that Canada set a blistering pace. Statistics Canada’s figure of +94,000 jobs was the biggest monthly increase in more than six-and-a-half years, dating back to March 2012 (also +94,000).
Canada’s unemployment rate in November improved to 5.6%, the lowest it’s been in more than 40 years.
America’s unemployment rate stayed the same in November as in October, but keep in mind that the current level of 3.7% is the tightest in almost 50 years.
Canada may have had a better November than the U.S., but for year-to-date 2018, it’s been the latter that has been vastly outperforming the former.
U.S. monthly average jobs creation so far this year has been +206,000, +12.7% above last year’s comparable figure of +183,000.
Canada’s monthly average jobs bump to date in 2018 has been only +14,000, -58% versus January-November 2017’s climb of +33,000.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, Cannabis, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Economic, Economics, Economist, Economy, job, jobless, jobs, Labor, unemployment
Comments Off on November Jobs Creation: U.S. +155,000; Canada +94,000
Thursday, December 6th, 2018
Tables 1 through 3 accompanying this article detail the latest (October 2018) statistics on construction employment regionally in the U.S. and Canada.
Table 1 is a ranking of states, D.C. and Puerto Rico for the U.S. and provinces and territories for Canada by construction employment levels.
Table 2 is a ranking of states, D.C. and Puerto Rico for the U.S. and provinces and territories for Canada according to year-over-year (y/y) nominal changes in construction employment levels.
Table 3 is a ranking of states, D.C. and Puerto Rico for the U.S. and provinces and territories for Canada by y/y percentage changes in number of construction jobs.
With respect to number of construction jobs (Table 1), the four most populous states in America are the frontrunners. California (874,000) is in first place, followed by Texas (774,000), Florida (553,000) and New York (415,000).
After New York, there’s a sizable step down to fifth-place Pennsylvania (266,000).
There are six other states with construction levels exceeding 200,000 – Illinois (243,000); Ohio (238,000); North Carolina (222,000); Washington (218,000); Georgia (+207,000); and Virginia (206,000).
(By the way, how populous are California, Texas, N.Y. and Florida? Combined, they account for the residences of one out of every three Americans.)
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Tags: Alex Carrick, build, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economic, Economics, Economist
Comments Off on Construction Jobs Regionally by Level and Change, U.S. and Canada
Monday, December 3rd, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
The latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) records that the U.S. construction sector’s unemployment rate in October was 3.6%, lower than the national ‘headline’ rate of 3.7% for all jobs in the economy.
Since 3.7% as the national jobless level was a nearly 50-year low, for construction to have done even better was an outstanding achievement.
Also, for October 2018, the BLS calculated that construction workers’ year-over-year (y/y) wage gains were ‘richer’ than for all jobs (i.e., not just construction, but manufacturing and all manner of services work), both hourly (+4.2% versus +3.2%) and weekly (+4.5% versus +3.2%).
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Economic, Economics, Economist, employ, employment, Growth, interest rate, job
Comments Off on Maps – Georgia Best and New Jersey Worst for Construction Jobs Growth
Friday, November 2nd, 2018
According to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the total number of jobs in the U.S. in October rose by 250,000, an outstanding gain.
Because the participation increased slightly, from 62.7% in September to 62.9% in October (i.e., more people re-entered the work force), the unemployment rate stayed the same as the month before, at 3.7%.
What’s important to remember, though, is that a 3.7% American jobless figure is a 50-year low.
According to the latest Labour Force Survey results published by Statistics Canada, total employment north of the border in October bobbed up by a relatively anemic 11,000 jobs.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economic, Economist, Economy, employ, employment, Growth, job, jobs, market
Comments Off on Big October U.S. Jobs Gain Has Fed Interest Rate Implications; Meanwhile, Canada Quiet on the Jobs Front
Tuesday, October 2nd, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
In 2017, as calculated by the Census Bureau, total U.S. put-in-place construction activity was +4.5% year over year (y/y), with all the strength coming from residential, +12.2%, since nonresidential work was a little worse than flat, -0.5%. (‘Put-in-place’ as a concept captures work-in-process or progress payments as projects proceed.)
Over the past five years, 2013 through 2017, the annual total of U.S. put-in-place construction has averaged +8.0% y/y, led by exceptional growth in residential, +14.0%, with nonresidential doing okay, +4.5%, but not shattering any records.
The latest data from the Census Bureau, for August 2018, shows year-to-date results (i.e., versus the first eight months of last year) being +5.2% for total; +6.5% for residential; and +4.3% for nonresidential, +4.3%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Housing
Comments Off on 2 Leading Monitors of U.S. Construction Activity, 1 Public and 1 Private – Fall 2018
Friday, September 21st, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
The Trump Administration in Washington has recently imposed $200 billion in tariffs on imports from China. Included in those new duty assessments are auto parts.
This action, along with another key development in Mexico, has introduced a strange twist into the dynamics of where, in North America, motor vehicle assemblers may wish to carry out future capital spending.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Auto Sector, Canada, ConstructConnect, Economic, Economist, Economy, Growth
Comments Off on With U.S. Tariffs on Chinese ‘Parts’, Advantage Goes to Canada in Auto Sector Investments
Thursday, September 13th, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
ConstructConnect announced today that August’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential activity, was $33.1 billion − a month-to-month change of -18.9%. The long-term history of the starts data records a ‘normal’ change of -3.5% from July to August, due to seasonality. (Starts are traditionally strongest in Spring and early Summer.)
Compared with August of last year, this year’s latest-month nonresidential starts volume was -9.5%. Relative to the nonresidential five-year average for August, from 2013 through 2017, this year’s latest-month starts volume was +2.7%. Year-to-date nonresidential starts in 2018 compared with the same January-August time frame of 2017 have been -1.9%.
The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they altered for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars.
‘Nonresidential building’ plus ‘engineering/civil’ work accounts for a larger share of total construction than residential activity. The former’s combined proportion of total put-in-place construction in the Census Bureau’s July report was 55%; the latter’s share was 45%.
View this information as an infographic.
ConstructConnect’s construction starts are leading indicators for the Census Bureau’s capital investment or put-in-place series. Also, the reporting period for starts (i.e., August 2018) is one month ahead of the reporting period for the investment series (i.e., July 2018.)
The all-jobs increase for the U.S. economy in August was +1.6% year over year, according to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Hiring by the construction sector has been more robust, +4.3% year over year. The month-to-month nominal jobs increase in construction in August was +23,000, the same as the average monthly gain since the beginning of this year. Construction hiring on average for January-August 2018 is up by one-third versus 2017’s +18,000 monthly average for the first two-thirds of 2017. Construction’s current unemployment rate is 3.4%, the same as in July, but down from 4.7% in August 2017. Construction’s jobless rate is lower than the ‘headline’ figure for the whole economy, 3.9%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, build, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economic, Economist, Economy, employment, Growth, Housing, market, material, money, oil, real estate
Comments Off on ConstructConnect’s August Nonresidential Starts -19% M/M, But Only -2% YTD
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