The AEC Lens 
Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for … More » Economic Heavy Lifting by U.S. & Canadian HomebuildersJuly 28th, 2021 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect Texas is in a League of its OwnThrough the first half of 2021, the monthly average of seasonally adjusted and annualized (SAAR) housing starts in the U.S. has been +23.2% compared with January-June 2020. The one-quarter increase in groundbreakings warrants the ‘mini-boom’ description being applied to the U.S. homebuilding market.
U.S. initial jobless claims figure – As of July 17, 2021July 22nd, 2021 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
PPI Measures of Construction Material Costs Are Still Shouting WarningsJuly 21st, 2021 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect This article focuses on the latest U.S. building material cost increases as laid out in the Producer Price Index data set compiled and published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Therefore, some easing may be imminent, and again especially relating to lumber and its byproducts, but there are still numerous cost hikes among other construction material inputs to raise an eyebrow or two. Prices for steel, aluminum, and copper products, along with gasoline and diesel fuel, have all been climbing significantly higher, to some extent under the cover of the more attention-grabbing advances in forestry products. Read the rest of PPI Measures of Construction Material Costs Are Still Shouting Warnings 10 Mid-July Economic NuggetsJuly 19th, 2021 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect Much is continuing to happen on the economic front. Let’s dig right in with a look at the results from the latest public and private sector data releases.
(2) The U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index improved from 120.0 in May to 127.3 in June. The base for the index is 1985 = 100.0. While 127.3 is a high level, it doesn’t quite reach the figures near 140 attained at times, on a monthly basis, in 2018 and 2019; which is to say, before the arrival of the coronavirus pandemic. But also know that the monthly measure of consumer confidence sank into the low 80s on occasion last year, when COVID infections were raging and much of the economy was temporarily sidelined. Big, but Also Odd, Jobs Gain for Canada in JuneJuly 15th, 2021 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect In June, Canada added nearly a quarter of a million net new jobs, according to the Labour Force Survey report assembled and published by Statistics Canada. The +231,000 increase, however, was not comprised of a usual mix of gains in both full-time and part-time work. Rather, full-time employment shrank by -33,000 jobs while part-time endeavors took off to the tune of +263,000 positions.
The boost in part-time work has come from an uptick in the ‘accommodation and food services’ sector, where employment is now +16.8% year over year, and it has benefitted younger workers. Employment among individuals aged 15 to 24 is now +25.5% year over year. Canada’s jobs recovery ratio, versus the scary plunge from February to April of last year, has improved to 88.6%. In services, the jobs claw-back ratio has climbed above 90%. In the public or government sector, whatever job losses there were in the Spring of last year have been retrieved and then some. Canada’s seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate now sits at 7.8%, down from 8.2% in May. The nation’s not seasonally adjusted (NSA) U rate, though, is a tight 6.0% when adjusted to the same methodological standards as are adopted in the U.S. A 6.0% NSA U rate for Canada is almost an exact match for the comparable U.S. figure of 6.1%. June’s Nonresidential Construction Starts +14% M/M, But -11% YTDJuly 15th, 2021 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect A Compelling Megaproject StoryConstructConnect announced today that June 2021’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $38.4 billion (green shaded box, Table 8 below), an increase of +14.4% vs May 2021’s $33.6 billion (originally reported as $32.5 billion).
Compared with June 2020, the latest month’s dollar volume of total nonresidential starts was -4.3%. On a year-to-date basis (i.e., Jan-Jun 2021/Jan-Jun 2020), total nonresidential starts have been -10.9%.
View this information as an infographic Read the rest of June’s Nonresidential Construction Starts +14% M/M, But -11% YTD Exiting the Pandemic, Where the Jobs AreJuly 6th, 2021 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Construction Left Out of June’s U.S. Big Jobs AdvanceJuly 6th, 2021 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
June was an excellent month for overall net jobs creation in the U.S., according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Total employment in the nation rose by +850,000 positions. The construction sector, however, was left out of the bonanza. Staffing among the ‘hard hat’ contingent contracted by -7,000 jobs. The major plus and minus employment shifts within construction occurred with residential specialty contractors (i.e., sub-contractors), +13,000 jobs; nonresidential specialty contractors, -15,000 jobs; and heavy and civil general contractors, -11,000 jobs. Read the rest of Construction Left Out of June’s U.S. Big Jobs Advance Canada No Slouch when it comes to Construction Material Cost HikesJuly 1st, 2021 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect In recent weeks, I’ve written several articles dealing with U.S. outsized construction material cost increases. (See Latest PPI Results Show Construction Material Cost Increases Still Alarming and Shockingly High Material Cost Hikes Set Out in 2 Tables & 24 Graphs.)
The U.S. figures on percentage changes in building materials and related cost climbs are derived from the Producer Price Index data set calculated and published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The best means to achieve Canadian equivalency is to draw on the Industrial Product Price Index data set from Statistics Canada. Read the rest of Canada No Slouch when it comes to Construction Material Cost Hikes An Unusual Economy – Two Stunning Charts, Plus a Bonus ChartJune 29th, 2021 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect+ I don’t know why this hasn’t received more attention and I’m finding it a little hard to believe, given that there are still pockets of the economy that have not fully reopened, but according to the Census Bureau, sales by food services and drinking places (i.e., bars and restaurants) have climbed to a level slightly above where they were prior to the pandemic. |
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After climbing steadily through most of the second-half months of last year, the monthly figure has leveled off since December 2020. Furthermore, ‘permits’ which were leading ‘starts’ higher through much of 2020, have more recently descended from their peak in an apparent withdrawal to ‘base camp’ (see Graph 6).
