Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnectAlex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for the media, Mr. Carrick holds a Masters in Economics. « Less
Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnectAlex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for … More »
May 14th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- Now you have an excuse to eat them. French fries should more accurately be called Belgian fries. They were given the wrong name by American soldiers in World War I who mistakenly thought they were in France when they came across the new tasty use for potatoes. Over the past many decades, Belgium has been a leading exporter of the kinds of potatoes that make the best fries. But restaurant and fast-food demand has fallen off a cliff coincident with coronavirus quarantining and there are storehouses full of spuds that are in danger of spoiling by the end of June. The message has gone out in Belgium, and it’s being picked up in other countries, that families should double their French fry intake from one meal per week to two.
- Speaking of Belgium, it has one of the worst COVID-19 mortality rates among countries in the world, according to the authoritative website on the progress of the disease being maintained by Johns Hopkins University. Deaths per capita is considered the best gauge of how brutally a country is being ravaged by the coronavirus. (Statistics on the infection rate can be wonky.) In Belgium, the number of deaths per 100,000 population is currently 74.6. The figures for some other developed nations, in descending order, are as follows: Spain, 56.3; Italy, 50.0; United Kingdom, 47.1; France, 39.2; Sweden, 31.2; United States, 23.6; Canada, 12.7; and Germany, 9.1.
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May 13th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- Spoiler alert: Don’t read the following two bullet points unless you’re okay with learning the outcome. The Kentucky Derby race for three-year-old horses is always held on the first Saturday in May. Well, that’s not entirely correct. In 1945, in the final days of the war effort, it was delayed until June. Then in this year, 2020, it’s also been postponed, until September 5, for only the second time ever. In its time slot in early May, NBC Sports broadcast a virtual race between 13 former Triple Crown Winners.
- The ‘Run for the Roses’ at Churchill Downs is called the most exciting two minutes in sports. Did that still hold true this year, when there wasn’t really anything on the line and the finish was governed by a set of algorithms based on past performances? It’s your call. Perhaps you were watching on May 2nd. If not, you can catch a replay of the broadcast on YouTube. I’ve seen it and even as a CGI event, nothing’s quite as nail-biting as a ‘final stretch’ run, especially when it features win, place and show positions captured by Secretariat, Citation and Seattle Slew ‒ equine royalty.
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May 12th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- Since the turn of this century in 2000, and excepting the latest six months of slower activity due to COVID-19 shutdowns, China has managed exceptional year-over-year gross domestic product growth (i.e., of +6% recently, but +10% or more earlier) due, in large part, to a string of major infrastructure spending programs. To make up for the nation’s Q1 2020 downturn in output, the government in Beijing is launching another wave of massive public investment. This time, though, the trillions of yuan will go into other areas of the economy. Instead of road, bridge, railway, train station, rapid transit and airport projects, the emphasis will be on securing China’s lead in such hot-prospect and high-tech sectors as telecommunications and biotechnology.
- In the past, when China embarked on an infrastructure building binge, the huge increase in demand for raw materials necessitated sourcing from multiple resource sites around the world, with extraction firms in Australia, Canada, South America and Africa all benefitting. Commodity prices soared and the owners of raw materials had a field day. A commonly quoted statistic is that nearly 50% of base metals, fossil fuels, steel and aluminum consumption worldwide has been in the People’s Republic. If there is to be an emphasis on different kinds of infrastructure works this time, though, the impacts for resource producers will be harder to assess, until the specs appear.
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May 11th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- The degree to which the coronavirus vaccine development process is being compressed (i.e., from ten years or more to one year or less) raises an abundance of ethical issues. Human volunteers for clinical trials are being exposed to unknown dangers and side effects.
- The least questionable trial methodology ‒ assuming such a thing can be placed on a sliding scale ‒ monitors the results when inoculated subjects simply continue to live, as per usual, among a general population that’s been infected. If, however, there is positive progress in lowering the infection rate of the population at large by non-vaccine means, it will make it harder to obtain reliable results from the test group. Ironic, right? Therefore, the test group may need to be chosen from a location where the coronavirus infection rate is still climbing or near its peak.
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May 8th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- Concerning COVID-19, possibly the best to be hoped for over the next many months will be the emergence of ‘herd immunity’. ‘Herd immunity’ will occur when approximately two-thirds of the population has been in contact with the coronavirus, creating enough antibody protection to severely slow its spread. Nevertheless, that will still leave one-third living under the sword of Damocles. Randomly, someday, somewhere, somehow, they may be touched by COVID-19 with possibly dire consequences. At least, that will be case until an effective vaccine has been created.
- This is where the science becomes fascinating, but also complicated. Apparently, there may be development of several different makes and models of COVID-19 vaccine. A standard vaccine uses a weakened version of the offending virus to prod a body into launching an overwhelming defense posture. A new ‘platform’ approach, with a shorter testing and approvals span, modifies a known closely related virus ‒ maybe even from the animal kingdom, since there are untold numbers of viruses with an incredible diversity of characteristics ‒ to become a harmless copycat of the latest interloper, in order to engage the body’s immune system and set in place a rapid deployment system to fight off future attacks.
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May 8th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
Unemployment Rate at 14.7% could have been Worse
It could have been worse. I thought it would be worse. Next month’s figure will probably be worse.
I’m speaking of April’s U.S. seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate, as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It came in at 14.7%, after being just 4.4% in March.
If you’re looking for a figure that’s jaw-dropping, turn to the total number of jobs in the country. From March to April, there was a decline of 20.5 million.
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May 8th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
ConstructConnect, in its latest (Summer) quarterly construction starts forecast, is projecting -27.4% for 2020/2019 grand total dollars and -24.6% for square footage.
Why the big drop?
By the way, ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) GDP is likely to be something like -6% (annual/annual) and that is a big decline. The Q/Q change annualized in Q2 will be something like -25% to -30%.
Put-in-place construction spend numbers are much smoother than starts. They include a large percentage of work that is carried over from last year, so they’re not relevant for assessing what is occurring today. The put-in-place total, 2020/2019, will be on the order of -6% to -8%.
Now we come to construction starts. As background, in the last recession (2008-2009), the cumulative decline in ConstructConnect’s total starts through both years was greater than -30%.
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May 7th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- Sporting events are coming out of hibernation. NASCAR drivers will be pushing pedals to the metal at Darlington Raceway, South Carolina, on Sunday May 17th. Racing teams and officials will be required to practice safe distancing and no fans will be allowed in the stands. The event will be broadcast live on TV and satellite radio.
- Seven days later, on the 24th, the famed Coca-Cola 600 NASCAR race (again with no live audience) will be held, as it has been for 60 years, during the Memorial Day weekend. The Indianapolis 500 IndyCar race, though, with 200 laps over a two-and-a-half-mile track in Speedway, Indiana, has been moved to Sunday, August 23rd.
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May 7th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- Pivot time, everyone! No longer is all the news surrounding the health care crisis entirely about bringing the economy to a near standstill so that ‘social distancing’ can establish fire walls against the spread of the coronavirus. More than half of U.S. states are presently allowing some form of business re-openings.
- New guidelines, ‒ to be implemented in phases, ‒ for conducting operations in restaurants, retail stores, cinemas and so on vary widely by location, but they all include some version of personal protective gear and reduced space occupancy.
- Shopping mall giant Simon Properties is promising to hand out free masks to patrons upon entry into one of its properties.
- Also, with respect to face coverings, JetBlue has become the first major airline to require their use by all flight attendants and passengers on the company’s jets.
- Where cinema screenings will be allowed once again, attendance under Phase One rule relaxations will be limited to 20% of capacity.
- The at-most ‘repopulation’ aim for many retail outlets is five customers per 1,000 square feet.
- Desks in schools will be set at least six feet apart. Students will eat their lunches in classrooms. Congregating in cafeterias and gyms will be forbidden.
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May 7th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- When ‘testing’ is mentioned concerning the coronavirus, it’s important to know that there are two kinds. There’s diagnostic testing, which inserts a thin swab deep into the nasal sinus cavity, to determine if someone is currently in the grip of the virus. Then there’s a blood sample test to establish if one has built up immunity based on a storehouse of immunoglobulins. (There are two ‘makes’ of antibodies, a first-attack kind and a second wait-in-the wings-in-case-the-devil-returns kind.) The more people there are with antibodies, the bigger the potential labor pool to restart the economy. By the way, how long the effectiveness of the second more-crucial type of antibody lasts is still unknown.
- If you check the Uber app on your phone, you’ll probably find there are still a few drivers willing to take you somewhere, to do something … maybe to a workplace judged ‘essential’, or to a medical appointment, or to buy groceries. Depending on which states and/or provinces re-open soonest, they may also be able to motor you to a bowling alley, bingo parlor or tattoo artist.
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