Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnectAlex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for the media, Mr. Carrick holds a Masters in Economics. « Less
Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnectAlex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for … More »
May 7th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- Some in the construction industry have been pinning their hopes for revival on an infrastructure spending package. Let’s look at the financing situation. The U.S. fiscal deficit this year is approaching $4 trillion, with three-quarters of that amount being rescue money. The priority order of relief expenditures has been: income supplements; unemployment insurance top-ups; help for large- and medium-sized corporations; specific industrial sector support (e.g., airlines); aid for urban transit systems and for hospitals; and a first round of small business loans, followed by a larger second round.
- Not even covered yet are state and local government shortfalls caused by tax revenue swan dives. So, will another trillion dollars be set aside for infrastructure spending? There’s always the possibility that a political-gain motivation, seen by one party or the other, may prevail. But with a new debt mountain looming, it seems unlikely to me.
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May 7th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- Canadians have entered the pandemic unprepared. In total, they have a record high level of household debt to disposable income, a ratio exceeding 170%. The reason for the debt buildup has been an exceptionally strong residential real estate market.
- For years, speculation concerning a runaway housing bubble in Canada has been noted but, for the most part, brushed aside … although it is worth mentioning that there have been some government-imposed steps to cool overheating home prices. Nevertheless, the roosters have finally come home to cock-a-doodle-doo, but in an unexpected way.
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May 7th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- OxBlue is a company that sells live-feed cameras for construction sites, to monitor worker movements and equipment flows, to guard against theft, and to record daily progress for contractors and owners ‒ sometimes letting the public in on the spectacle as well, by means of an Internet link ‒ as structures take shape.
- With the onset of the coronavirus crisis, many construction projects are being shunted onto sidetracks. Based on algorithms tied to what its cameras are seeing, OxBlue has calculated an index of ongoing construction activity levels across America. Presently, according to OxBlue, the six states with the sharpest declines in onsite work are: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Massachusetts, Washington, New York and Ohio.
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May 7th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- The website ‘flightradar24.com’ (dashboard heading ‘Statistics’) records that the number of commercial flights globally (as a 7-day moving average) on March 12, 2020, was 101,297. From mid-March on, there was a rapid falling off, so that by April 12 (one month later), the figure had descended to just 29,442, a giant-sized drop of -71%. (‘Commercial’ flights are defined as passenger, cargo, charter and some business-jet flights. Excluded are glider, helicopter, ambulance and some military excursions.)
- Latest month-to-month airport departure statistics (number of actual flights) from ‘flightradar24.com’ show the following: Dallas-Ft. Worth International Airport, -59%; Chicago O’Hare, -66%; Atlanta Hartsfield Jackson, -69%; Los Angeles International Airport, -72%; New York John F. Kennedy, -81%; Montreal’s Pierre Elliott Trudeau Airport, -82%; Toronto’s Pearson International, -83%; and N.Y.’s LaGuardia, -92%.
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April 28th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- According to CBRE, there are seven major wholesale data center markets in the U.S. By far the biggest is in northern Virginia, with the community of Ashburn in Loudoun County (near Dulles Airport) at its core. The other six, from east to west, are Tri-state New York, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Phoenix and Silicon Valley. Prior to the pandemic, they were viewed as being recession-proof. That assertion is likely to be proven true many times over in this current coronavirus crisis.
- The same won’t be said for call centers, though. Data centers are full of computer equipment knows as servers. Call centers are chock full of people in cubicles. Who knew that mingling with co-workers would one day become so dangerous? Call center employees are upset about their working conditions and want to operate from home.
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April 28th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- In Q1 of this year, China’s ‘real’ (i.e., after-inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) declined by -6.8% compared with the first quarter of 2019. It was the first year-over-year contraction for the country since the National Bureau of Statistics began releasing official GDP estimates in 1992. In the previous period, Q4 2019, China managed output growth of +6.0%, but then the coronavirus descended on the city of Wuhan and the province of Hubei in last year’s final days. Isolation measures rippling out to cover much of the country stopped economic activity in its tracks.
- The lockdown restrictions in China have now been lifted, with Wuhan being the last to see the easing. The word out of Wuhan, however, is that even though shopping malls are up and running again, consumers remain reluctant to step inside.
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April 24th, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- In the 2008-2009 recession, employment with legal services firms fell significantly and subsequently stayed down. When the far shore of the pandemic crisis is finally reached, the legal community will receive a big boost. The number of individuals and companies engaging in legal action may well exceed those shying away.
- There’ll be employees suing bosses for unfairly terminating their jobs. There’ll be workers who’ve suffered health damage and feel they were wrongly put at risk. There’ll be companies suing governments for enforced shutdowns resulting in bankruptcies. There’ll be landlords suing tenants for rent payment delinquencies. There’ll be banks going after homeowners to take back mortgages in default.
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April 23rd, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
U.S. initial jobless claims for the latest week, ending April 18th, were 4.4 million. Only a minimal amount of encouragement can be taken from the fact the figure has been declining for three weeks in a row. A level of 4.4 million reached in only seven days is still horrifically high.
The sum of the weekly figures for the past five periods is 26.4 million. Not all that number will appear in the monthly unemployed tally to be reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in May, for April. A certain unknown percentage of UI seekers still have jobs, but they’ve moved from full-time to part-time.
Nevertheless, when one crunches the numbers and compares a likely figure for the number of unemployed versus the size of the civilian labor force (163 million), the best the unemployment rate can be at this time is 15.0%. And it doesn’t take much of an adjustment in assumptions to yield a 20.0% result.
Graph 1
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April 23rd, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- There seem to be nearly unlimited ways in which society can separate into diverse factions (e.g., along lines tied to income, race, religion, sexual orientation, culinary taste, etc.). There’s one split, though, where the degree of difference exposed by the coronavirus crisis is being magnified to the ‘nth degree’. There are those who have acquired a degree of proficiency in using new high-tech tools, across a wide spectrum of applications, and those who have not. The age composition of the ‘not’ group is inordinately older. (I’m allowed to say that because I’m in the older demographic; they’re my ‘peeps’.)
- Those who are comfortable with digital technology are staying on top of events, be they bad or good, as they unfold. When called upon by employers, they are managing to perform well in non-traditional ways (e.g. working entirely online), most often from their own homes. The counter position taken by those outside the cyber-space loop is that not everyone should need to be instantly accessible twenty-four hours, every day. And that perhaps there’s more joy in not being up on everything.
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April 22nd, 2020 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
- Beyond stock market prices, which can display a lot of ‘chatter’ (i.e., large up and down changes), there’s another important daily indicator of how the economy is doing, electricity usage. With retail stores, offices and factories closed during the coronavirus crisis, the decline in the commercial consumption of electricity has been greater than the increase in the amount of power used in residences. There’s been a big increase in the number of people set up with laptop and desktop computers to work from home.
- Residential power consumption has shot way up on weekdays but has not increased much on weekends versus previous patterns. This is confirmation of what we’ve already intuitively grasped, that the distinction between weekdays and weekends has blurred. Everybody being tied together by smart phones started the ball rolling years ago.
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