The AEC Lens 
Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for … More » Series (2 of 7): Rankings of States by Industrial Subsector Jobs – Financial ServicesJanuary 16th, 2019 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect Construction spending in various type-of structure categories is driven by economic circumstances within specific industrial subsectors. For example, manufacturers set the pace in industrial construction.
Good health in the leisure and hospitality sector provides the backing for new hotel and motel work. And jobs levels in information and financial services, as well as in more rapidly expanding fields of endeavor such as computer systems and design services, establish the need for additional office space and commercial tower square footage. (See, “Shifts in Office Jobs and Implications for Commercial Tower Construction.”) This article is the second in a series of seven that examines key industrial sectors to determine where they are most prominent regionally. Rankings of state strength in each industrial subsector are based on both ‘weight’ and ‘concentration’ of relevant employment. ‘Weight’ is simply the number of jobs in the industrial subsector in each state. ‘Concentration’ is each state’s number of jobs in the subsector divided by the state’s population. In effect, it’s a ‘per capita’ figure, except that it’s expressed as number of jobs per million population. Series (1 of 7): Rankings of States by Industrial Subsector Jobs – ManufacturingJanuary 15th, 2019 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect Construction spending in various type-of structure categories is driven by economic circumstances within specific industrial subsectors. For example, manufacturers set the pace in industrial construction. Rankings of States by Industrial Sub-Sector Jobs – ‘Weight’ and ‘Concentration’ Maps for M
anufacturing Graphic Good health in the leisure and hospitality sector provides the backing for new hotel and motel work. And jobs levels in information and financial services, as well as in more rapidly expanding fields of endeavor such as computer systems and design services, establish the need for additional office space and commercial tower square footage. (See, “Shifts in Office Jobs and Implications for Commercial Tower Construction.”) This article is the first in a series of seven that examines key industrial sectors to determine where they are most prominent regionally. Rankings of state strength in each industrial subsector are based on both ‘weight’ and ‘concentration’ of relevant employment. ‘Weight’ is simply the number of jobs in the industrial subsector in each state. ‘Concentration’ is each state’s number of jobs in the subsector divided by the state’s population. In effect, it’s a ‘per capita’ figure, except that it’s expressed as number of jobs per million population. Read the rest of Series (1 of 7): Rankings of States by Industrial Subsector Jobs – Manufacturing U.S. 2018 Large Project Starts by Type of Structure – 2 InfographicsJanuary 10th, 2019 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect The dollar volume of ConstructConnect’s ‘grand total’ construction starts in full-year 2018 was -5.0% compared with full-year 2017. The percentage change for nonresidential work was -2.0%. How significant were the largest project initiations in those overall percentage changes? Each month, to update clients on showcase project activity, ConstructConnect publishes a Top 10 groundbreakings list. The summation of the Top 10 projects for every month in 2018 (i.e., 120 projects in total) was $85.4 billion, +1.3% versus 2017’s comparable figure of $84.2 billion. Many of 2018’s biggest project starts are set out in two accompanying infographics and tables. While there were other type-of-structure categories with multiple extra-large projects last year, six that stood out were: high-tech data and fulfilment centers; hotels and conference centers; bridges; manufacturing and distribution centers; medical facilities; and law enforcement. Read the rest of U.S. 2018 Large Project Starts by Type of Structure – 2 Infographics December Jobs Reports: U.S. Ends 2018 with Bang; Canada with WhimperJanuary 8th, 2019 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect The total number of jobs in the U.S. rose by +312,000 in December, according to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
There was only one other month in 2018 with a greater surge in jobs creation, February at +324,000. Optimism over hiring prospects caused the participation rate in December to climb to 63.1% from 62.9% the month previously (i.e., more out-of-work individuals decided to rejoin the labor force). The side effect was that the unemployment rate moved up to 3.9% from 3.7% in November. The large month-to-month gain in jobs in December understates the overall improvement, since there was also a substantial positive revision to prior data. A month ago, the BLS reported a total jobs level of 149.893 million. It is now saying that November’s figure was really 149.951 million, an increase of +58,000. Therefore, December’s just-reported level of 150.263 million exceeds November’s first-reported level of 149.893 million by +370,000 jobs. By industry sector, the largest revisions to November’s jobs statistics came from ‘retail’ (+18,000), ‘government’ (+16,000) and ‘leisure and hospitality’ (+14,000). Read the rest of December Jobs Reports: U.S. Ends 2018 with Bang; Canada with Whimper Infographic: U.S. Rail & Rapid Ttransit ProjectsDecember 20th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect Due to its complexity, much of the subject matter concerning the economy requires detailed editorial commentary, often supported by relevant tables and graphs. This infographic looks at U.S. rail and rapid transit projects.
At the same time, though, there are many topics (e.g., relating to demographics, housing starts, etc.) that cry out for compelling ‘short-hand’ visualizations. Whichever path is followed, the point of the journey, almost always, is to reach a bottom line or two. To provide additional value at its corporate blog site, ConstructConnect is now pleased to offer an ongoing series of Infographics. These will help readers sort out the ‘big picture’ more clearly. Read the rest of Infographic: U.S. Rail & Rapid Ttransit Projects 13 Mid-December Economic NuggetsDecember 17th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect The tail that is attempting to wag the dog these days is the stock market. With only two weeks remaining in 2018, America’s major stock market indices have moved, at best, sideways versus close-of-year 2017. The Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI) is currently -0.5% relative to its closing level on December 31 of last year. The S&P 500 is -0.9% and NASDAQ, -2.4%.
North of the border, the Toronto Stock Exchange is -9.0% compared with year-end 2017. The FANG stocks have been leading the retreat in equity prices. Since the summer of this year, the share price of Facebook, which has experienced confidentiality problems galore, is -29.2%; Amazon, the retail sector’s ‘disruptor-in-chief’, is -19.9%; Netflix is -34.1%; and Google/Alphabet, -16.2%. Even Apple has moved out of favor, -26.3%. On August 2nd, Apple became the world’s first trillion-dollar company, but of course that valuation no longer stands. The Federal Reserve has been paying attention. Earlier, the Chairman of the Fed was adamant that he wanted to see the federal funds rate return to its ‘equilibrium’ or neutral level of 3.00%. Neutrality is when prevailing interest rates are neither too stimulatory nor too contractionary. The current level of the federal funds rate is in a range of 2.00% to 2.25%. The likelihood is still high there will be another 25 basis-point (where 100 basis points equals 1.00%) increase later in this month of December. The schedule for next year, however, is no longer as firmly established. Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, has stated that future action on interest rates will be ‘data driven’. By the way, the stock markets also really don’t like the tariff skirmish with China. Whenever there is even a hint of a resolution of that dispute, investors respond ecstatically. Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – November 2018December 14th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect The accompanying table records the top 10 project starts in the U.S. for November 2018.
There are several reasons for highlighting upcoming large projects. Such jobs have often received a fair amount of media coverage. Therefore, people in the industry are on the lookout for when jobsite work actually gets underway. And, as showcase projects, they highlight geographically where major construction projects are proceeding. Also, total construction activity is comprised of many small and medium-sized projects and a limited number of large developments. But the largest projects, simply by their nature, can dramatically affect total dollar and square footage volumes. In other words, the timing and size of these projects have an exaggerated influence on market forecasts. Read the rest of Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – November 2018 Rough Patch for Nonresidential Starts in November, But YTD Decline Remained ModestDecember 13th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect ConstructConnect announced today that November’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $27.4 billion, the lowest level since February ($26.6 billion) of this year.
On a month-to-month basis, November’s nonresidential starts fell by nearly one-quarter (-22.6%). The usual seasonal pullback, due to harsher winter-onset weather, is in a range of -2% to -7%. November 2018 compared with November 2017 was -9.8%. November 2018 relative to the previous five-year average for November, − i.e., from 2013 through 2017, − was +0.9%. Year-to-date starts in 2018 compared with January-to-November of 2017 have been -4.0%. There is only one month still to go, December, before 2018’s annual results will be tabulated. The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they altered for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars.
‘Nonresidential building’ plus ‘engineering/civil’ work accounts for a larger share of total construction than residential activity. The former’s combined proportion of total put-in-place construction in the Census Bureau’s October report was 59%; the latter’s was 41%. ConstructConnect’s construction starts are leading indicators for the Census Bureau’s capital investment or put-in-place series. Also, the reporting period for starts (i.e., November 2018) is one month ahead of the reporting period for the investment series (i.e., October 2018.) November Jobs Creation: U.S. +155,000; Canada +94,000December 7th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect There was a dramatic reversal in fortune on the jobs front between the U.S. and Canada in November.
It wasn’t that the U.S. number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was so bad. At +155,000, it slowed from +237,000 the month before, but it was still a solid increase. Rather, it was that Canada set a blistering pace. Statistics Canada’s figure of +94,000 jobs was the biggest monthly increase in more than six-and-a-half years, dating back to March 2012 (also +94,000). Canada’s unemployment rate in November improved to 5.6%, the lowest it’s been in more than 40 years. America’s unemployment rate stayed the same in November as in October, but keep in mind that the current level of 3.7% is the tightest in almost 50 years. Canada may have had a better November than the U.S., but for year-to-date 2018, it’s been the latter that has been vastly outperforming the former. U.S. monthly average jobs creation so far this year has been +206,000, +12.7% above last year’s comparable figure of +183,000. Canada’s monthly average jobs bump to date in 2018 has been only +14,000, -58% versus January-November 2017’s climb of +33,000. Read the rest of November Jobs Creation: U.S. +155,000; Canada +94,000 Construction Jobs Regionally by Level and Change, U.S. and CanadaDecember 6th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Tables 1 through 3 accompanying this article detail the latest (October 2018) statistics on construction employment regionally in the U.S. and Canada.
Table 1 is a ranking of states, D.C. and Puerto Rico for the U.S. and provinces and territories for Canada by construction employment levels. Table 2 is a ranking of states, D.C. and Puerto Rico for the U.S. and provinces and territories for Canada according to year-over-year (y/y) nominal changes in construction employment levels. Table 3 is a ranking of states, D.C. and Puerto Rico for the U.S. and provinces and territories for Canada by y/y percentage changes in number of construction jobs. With respect to number of construction jobs (Table 1), the four most populous states in America are the frontrunners. California (874,000) is in first place, followed by Texas (774,000), Florida (553,000) and New York (415,000). After New York, there’s a sizable step down to fifth-place Pennsylvania (266,000). There are six other states with construction levels exceeding 200,000 – Illinois (243,000); Ohio (238,000); North Carolina (222,000); Washington (218,000); Georgia (+207,000); and Virginia (206,000). (By the way, how populous are California, Texas, N.Y. and Florida? Combined, they account for the residences of one out of every three Americans.) |
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