Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnectAlex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for the media, Mr. Carrick holds a Masters in Economics. « Less
Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnectAlex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for … More »
December 3rd, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
The latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) records that the U.S. construction sector’s unemployment rate in October was 3.6%, lower than the national ‘headline’ rate of 3.7% for all jobs in the economy.
Since 3.7% as the national jobless level was a nearly 50-year low, for construction to have done even better was an outstanding achievement.
Also, for October 2018, the BLS calculated that construction workers’ year-over-year (y/y) wage gains were ‘richer’ than for all jobs (i.e., not just construction, but manufacturing and all manner of services work), both hourly (+4.2% versus +3.2%) and weekly (+4.5% versus +3.2%).
Read the rest of Maps – Georgia Best and New Jersey Worst for Construction Jobs Growth
Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Economic, Economics, Economist, employ, employment, Growth, interest rate, job
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November 2nd, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
According to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the total number of jobs in the U.S. in October rose by 250,000, an outstanding gain.
Because the participation increased slightly, from 62.7% in September to 62.9% in October (i.e., more people re-entered the work force), the unemployment rate stayed the same as the month before, at 3.7%.
What’s important to remember, though, is that a 3.7% American jobless figure is a 50-year low.
According to the latest Labour Force Survey results published by Statistics Canada, total employment north of the border in October bobbed up by a relatively anemic 11,000 jobs.
Read the rest of Big October U.S. Jobs Gain Has Fed Interest Rate Implications; Meanwhile, Canada Quiet on the Jobs Front
Tags: Alex Carrick, Economic, Economist, Economy, employ, employment, Growth, job, jobs, market
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October 2nd, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
In 2017, as calculated by the Census Bureau, total U.S. put-in-place construction activity was +4.5% year over year (y/y), with all the strength coming from residential, +12.2%, since nonresidential work was a little worse than flat, -0.5%. (‘Put-in-place’ as a concept captures work-in-process or progress payments as projects proceed.)
Over the past five years, 2013 through 2017, the annual total of U.S. put-in-place construction has averaged +8.0% y/y, led by exceptional growth in residential, +14.0%, with nonresidential doing okay, +4.5%, but not shattering any records.
The latest data from the Census Bureau, for August 2018, shows year-to-date results (i.e., versus the first eight months of last year) being +5.2% for total; +6.5% for residential; and +4.3% for nonresidential, +4.3%.
Read the rest of 2 Leading Monitors of U.S. Construction Activity, 1 Public and 1 Private – Fall 2018
Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Housing
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September 21st, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
The Trump Administration in Washington has recently imposed $200 billion in tariffs on imports from China. Included in those new duty assessments are auto parts.
This action, along with another key development in Mexico, has introduced a strange twist into the dynamics of where, in North America, motor vehicle assemblers may wish to carry out future capital spending.
Read the rest of With U.S. Tariffs on Chinese ‘Parts’, Advantage Goes to Canada in Auto Sector Investments
Tags: Alex Carrick, Auto Sector, Canada, ConstructConnect, Economic, Economist, Economy, Growth
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September 13th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
ConstructConnect announced today that August’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential activity, was $33.1 billion − a month-to-month change of -18.9%. The long-term history of the starts data records a ‘normal’ change of -3.5% from July to August, due to seasonality. (Starts are traditionally strongest in Spring and early Summer.)
Compared with August of last year, this year’s latest-month nonresidential starts volume was -9.5%. Relative to the nonresidential five-year average for August, from 2013 through 2017, this year’s latest-month starts volume was +2.7%. Year-to-date nonresidential starts in 2018 compared with the same January-August time frame of 2017 have been -1.9%.
The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they altered for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars.
‘Nonresidential building’ plus ‘engineering/civil’ work accounts for a larger share of total construction than residential activity. The former’s combined proportion of total put-in-place construction in the Census Bureau’s July report was 55%; the latter’s share was 45%.
View this information as an infographic.
ConstructConnect’s construction starts are leading indicators for the Census Bureau’s capital investment or put-in-place series. Also, the reporting period for starts (i.e., August 2018) is one month ahead of the reporting period for the investment series (i.e., July 2018.)
The all-jobs increase for the U.S. economy in August was +1.6% year over year, according to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Hiring by the construction sector has been more robust, +4.3% year over year. The month-to-month nominal jobs increase in construction in August was +23,000, the same as the average monthly gain since the beginning of this year. Construction hiring on average for January-August 2018 is up by one-third versus 2017’s +18,000 monthly average for the first two-thirds of 2017. Construction’s current unemployment rate is 3.4%, the same as in July, but down from 4.7% in August 2017. Construction’s jobless rate is lower than the ‘headline’ figure for the whole economy, 3.9%.
Read the rest of ConstructConnect’s August Nonresidential Starts -19% M/M, But Only -2% YTD
Tags: Alex Carrick, build, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economic, Economist, Economy, employment, Growth, Housing, market, material, money, oil, real estate
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August 21st, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
There’s nothing complicated about today’s article. It simply examines, with the aid of the accompanying table, the latest 12-month performances of the share prices of nearly 40 well-known companies.
The 39 firms have been arranged alphabetically according to their primary industrial activity. Not all sectors are represented. One obvious omission is ‘health care’. CVS and Walgreens-Boots under ‘General Retail’ will have to serve as proxies.
But there has been an attempt to capture companies with direct or indirect (i.e., through capital spending on manufacturing facilities, retail space, etc.) ties to construction.
For each company, the two right-hand, percentage-change columns compare the current share price with: (1) the latest 12-month low; and (2) the latest 12-month high.
With respect to 12-month lows, percentage changes that are 50.0% or more have been shaded lightly in gray.
With respect to 12-month highs, percentage changes that are -20.0% or more steeply negative have been shaded in red.
Read the rest of Equity Price Patterns of 39 Companies with Ties to Construction
Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Economic, Economics, Economist, Economy, Labor, market, oil, US
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August 20th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
The U.S. quarter-to-quarter annualized advance in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year was an outsized +4.1%. It was the fastest leap forward since 2014’s third quarter jump of +4.9%. Some of the strength has been attributed to exports that were shipped early to beat target dates for the imposition of tariffs.
Nevertheless, it’s fair to say that America’s economy is presently firing smoother on more cylinders than it has in a long time. And even when problems do crop up, such as a potential Turkish currency crisis, they are – to all outward appearances − being dealt with and hustled aside quickly.
The foregoing is not to imply that there are no nagging points of concern. After all, inflation is shaking off its long slumber and preparing to possibly initiate trouble. The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July was +2.9% year over year. Even the ‘core’ rate (+2.4%), which omits volatile food and energy components, exceeded the +2.0% level favored by the Federal Reserve.
Read the rest of 12 Mid-August Economic Nuggets
Tags: Alex Carrick, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction, Economist, Economy, employment, Growth, Housing, oil, retail
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August 13th, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
Total employment in Canada recorded the best month-to-month increase so far this year in July, +54,000 jobs, according to the latest Labour Force Survey results published by Statistics Canada.
Prior to July, the best month-to-month improvements in 2018 had occurred in March and June, tied at +32,000 jobs.
The pick-up in hiring in July was entirely in part-time work (+82,000 jobs), as the number of positions classified as full-time suffered a setback (-28,000).
Read the rest of July the Year’s Best Month To-date for Employment Gain in Canada
Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, CMD Group, CMDGroup, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economist, Economy, Growth, job, jobless, market
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August 3rd, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
The lead paragraph of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’s July Employment Situation report highlights that total nonfarm payroll employment in the U.S. rose by 157,000 jobs during the latest month.
And that the unemployment rate declined again to 3.9% from 4.0% in June. The lowest the unemployment rate has reached in this cycle was 3.8% two months ago, in May.
Historically, the U.S. unemployment rate never falls much lower. The last time it was 3.8% was in April of 2000. Eighteen years have passed since then.
The seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate through the first seven months of this year has averaged 4.0%. During the same time frame of last year, it was 4.5%.
Read the rest of Manufacturing and Construction Both Winners in U.S. July Jobs Report
Tags: Alex Carrick, CMDGroup, Connect, construct, ConstructConnect, Economic, employment, job, jobless, jobs, Labor, market, money
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August 1st, 2018 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
Computers, the Internet and other high-tech advances have profoundly affected the workaday lives of every one of us.
Many of the thought-leaders who have sparked the innovation waves have become celebrities beyond the confines of the business sector. And their companies have been richly rewarded through enormous increases in the value of their shares on the major stock markets.
Never mind that Netflix and Facebook have recently had some setbacks, the FAANG companies (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google), along with many others (Twitter, Uber), have soared in value over the past decade-plus.
We’ve been living through a new industrial revolution. But there has long been one quibble raised by economists and others about these transformative times.
Historically, the birth of the auto industry, with its accompanying need for assembly plants, steel mills and gasoline stations, generated millions of new jobs.
Read the rest of Disconnect Between High-tech’s Influence and the High-tech Sector’s Jobs Creation
Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Economy, employment, Growth, job, jobless, jobs, Labor, market
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