Many building material suppliers and contractors, working together with insurance companies and government relief bodies, will be immersed in lengthy rebuilding efforts. The labor availability problem will become more acute.
The AEC Lens 
Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He is a frequent contributor to the Daily Commercial News and the Journal of Commerce. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the Canadian, United States and world construction outlooks. A trusted and often-quoted source for … More » 13 Mid-September Economic NuggetsOctober 23rd, 2017 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect Hurricane Harvey, which first struck southern Texas on Saturday August 25, and Hurricane Irma, which reached landfall in the Florida Keys on Sunday September 10, will ‘muddy’ the economic statistics for months to come. Estimates of the physical damage range widely, with $200 billion as the current outer limit. Homes, shopping malls, schools, churches, fast-food outlets, abandoned motor vehicles and fragile vegetation were all victimized, to varying degrees, by storm surges, flooding and crushing winds. In the aftermath, restoring power and ensuring the safety of roads and bridges have been the immediate concerns. Chief Economist Alex Carrick Shares Outlook on 2018October 19th, 2017 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect Employment and revenues for architecture, engineering and construction have grown modestly for most of 2017. But the signals for the next 12 months are mixed, with architectural billings positive, construction starts uneven and contractors hiring, but worried about finding enough qualified workers. Meanwhile, there is huge uncertainty about the impact of potential changes in tax, infrastructure, immigration and other types of policy. How will these cross-cutting influences play out? On November 1, three of the industry’s leading economists will come together for the annual Design and Construction Industry Economic Forecast, where they’ll discuss the changing landscape of commercial construction, the opportunities and challenges facing the industry as well as strategic insight on industry trends. Construct Connect recently spoke to Alex Carrick, Chief Economists for ConstructConnect, for a quick discussion about his thoughts on the current state of the construction industry and where things are heading. ConstructConnect: How long have you been hosting this webcast, what’s it about and who should attend? Read the rest of Chief Economist Alex Carrick Shares Outlook on 2018 2 Leading Monitors of U.S. Construction Activity, 1 Public and 1 Private – Early Fall 2017October 16th, 2017 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
The percentage levels and changes in Table 1 are based on the Census Bureau’s seasonally-adjusted (SA) August 2017 and earlier put-in-place construction statistics. ‘Put-in-place’ as a concept is meant to mirror work-in-process or progress payments as projects proceed.
For each type-of-structure, Table 1 takes the behind-the-scenes put-in-place data and compares the percentage changes of latest-12-months-over-previous-12-months versus latest-three-months-over-previous-three-months (annualized). If the three-month percent change exceeds the 12-month percent change, then construction activity in that type-of-structure category is considered to be speeding up. A check mark is entered in the far right column. (If the opposite is occurring, a check mark is entered in the ‘slowing down’ column.) If a type-of-structure category has a latest 3-month percent-change that is negative, but less negative, than its 12-month percent-change, such a circumstance is also considered to be an instance of ‘speeding up’ and warrants a check mark in the right-hand column. (Or, if it’s turning more negative, then it’s ‘slowing down’ further.) Average U.S. August Jobs Report Takes Back Seat to Hurricane HarveyOctober 13th, 2017 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect August’s Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) records a month-to-month increase in U.S. total employment of +156,000.
The +156,000 figure is a little weaker than the seven-month average so far this year of +176,000. Furthermore, this year’s January-through-August average of +176,000 is -9.2% compared with the +194,000 number for the same time frame last year. Just the same, +150,000 or more is a benchmark that defines when a jobs report should be greeted with warmth. The nation’s unemployment rate in August eased back a little to 4.4% from 4.3% in July. Goods production contributed more towards the total jobs increase in August than is normally the case. Mining, forestry, construction and manufacturing combined for a +70,000 month-to-month jobs gain, or nearly 50% of the +156,000 total. Read the rest of Average U.S. August Jobs Report Takes Back Seat to Hurricane Harvey U.S. September Jobs Report Delivers a ‘Sit Up and Pay Attention’ MomentOctober 11th, 2017 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has just delivered a ‘sit up and pay attention’ moment. Its September Employment Situation report records a month-to-month deterioration (-33,000) in the total number of U.S. jobs for the first time in seven years, dating back to September 2010 (-52,000).
Before economy watchers start gnashing their teeth or bemoaning too loudly, the BLS is quick to point out that there was a special circumstance – horrific weather – that caused the employment downfall. The jobs numbers are derived from a survey of payrolls. Employees in Texas and Florida who missed receiving paychecks early in September due to the fierce onslaughts of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma were accorded out-of-work status. Hence, September’s jobs numbers fell prey to two unique but in many way twin events. There will almost certainly be distortions in October’s numbers as well, but in the opposite direction, as rebuilding rebound effects come into play. Read the rest of U.S. September Jobs Report Delivers a ‘Sit Up and Pay Attention’ Moment ConstructConnect’s June Starts Stumbled, but YTD Stayed Positive at +2%July 17th, 2017 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect
June of this year versus a strong June of last year was -16.3%. Standalone June of this year versus June’s average level over the previous five years (2012-2016 inclusive), however, was a more upbeat +2.8%. Year-to-date starts through the first half of this year, compared with January-to-June of last year, stayed positive at +2.4%. The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they altered for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars. ConstructConnect’s YTD Starts +2% after May’s Rise of +5%June 20th, 2017 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect ConstructConnect announced today that May construction starts, excluding residential activity, were +5% versus April. The modest rise fell a little short of the usual percentage change between April and May, due to seasonality, of +8%.
Versus May of last year, nonresidential starts in the fifth month of this year were +2.0%. Compared with January through May of last year, the year-to-date volume of starts in 2017 has been +1.9%. The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they altered for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars. ‘Nonresidential building’ plus ‘engineering/civil’ work accounts for a considerably larger share of total construction than residential activity. The former’s combined proportion of total put-in-place construction in the Census Bureau’s April report was 56%; the latter’s was 44%. ConstructConnect’s construction starts are leading indicators for the Census Bureau’s capital investment or put-in-place series. Also, the reporting period for starts (i.e., May 2017) is one month ahead of the reporting period for the investment series (i.e., April 2017.) Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – May 2017June 16th, 2017 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect The accompanying table records the top 10 project starts in the U.S. for May 2017.
There are several reasons for highlighting upcoming large projects. Such jobs have often received a fair amount of media coverage. Therefore, people in the industry are on the lookout for when jobsite work actually gets underway. And, as showcase projects, they highlight geographically where major construction projects are proceeding. Also, total construction activity is comprised of many small and medium-sized projects and a limited number of large developments. But the largest projects, simply by their nature, can dramatically affect total dollar and square footage volumes. In other words, the timing and size of these projects have an exaggerated influence on market forecasts. Read the rest of Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – May 2017 Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – May 2017June 13th, 2017 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect Clichés are often true and it is the case that a picture can be worth a thousand words.
Below are six graphs recording 12-month moving averages of ConstructConnect ’s nonresidential construction starts. When the value of the current month is higher than for the same month a year ago, the line will turn up; when lower, it will dip. String a couple of similar positive or negative directional changes together over several months and one has a trend. And that’s what the graphs are designed to do, show improving or deteriorating trends in a dozen major and more granular categories of construction work. Read the rest of Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – May 2017 Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – April 2017May 22nd, 2017 by Alex Carrick, Chief Economist at ConstructConnect
Article source: ConstructConnect The accompanying table records the top 10 project starts in the U.S. for April 2017.
There are several reasons for highlighting upcoming large projects. Such jobs have often received a fair amount of media coverage. Therefore, people in the industry are on the lookout for when jobsite work actually gets underway. And, as showcase projects, they highlight geographically where major construction projects are proceeding. Also, total construction activity is comprised of many small and medium-sized projects and a limited number of large developments. But the largest projects, simply by their nature, can dramatically affect total dollar and square footage volumes. In other words, the timing and size of these projects have an exaggerated influence on market forecasts. |
