Posts Tagged ‘Alex Carrick’
Monday, November 6th, 2023
Article source: ConstructConnect
The latest Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics speaks of a +150,000 gain in the total number of U.S. jobs in October. That figure on its own is ho-hum. It is the second lowest monthly increase since pandemic days. (June of this year was weaker at +105,000).
The gain of +150,000 overstates the buoyancy. Versus the total jobs count of 156.874 million reported for September a month ago, October’s figure of 156.923 million was ahead by only +49,000 jobs. In the October report, September was revised down by -101,000 jobs.
The net result is that U.S. hiring is now as close to being flat as it has been in nearly three years.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, ConstructConnect, Construction, Economy, employ, employment, Growth, interest rate, recovery
Comments Off on Flattening Prospects in U.S. and Canadian Jobs Markets in October
Tuesday, September 5th, 2023
Article source: ConstructConnect
The U.S. economy grew by +2.0% in the first quarter of this year and by +2.4% in the second quarter. Those figures are the month-to-month annualized percentage changes of ‘real’ (i.e., inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) dollars.
One should not, however, grow comfortable with the thought that all is well, and a slowdown or recession has been averted.
A key component of GDP is consumer spending, which is almost half comprised of retail sales. While total retail sales are not in deep distress, they are certainly not as buoyant as they were a year or so ago.
In fact, total current dollar retail sales have been flat for a year and a half (see Graph 1). On a year-over-year basis in the latest reported month, July 2023, they were +2.0%. With inflation still running over +3.0% y/y, the difference means ‘real’ total retail sales were slightly negative.
There is a wrinkle in this narrative. Total retail sales are being substantially suppressed by the weakness of receipts at gasoline stations, -20.8% y/y. Again, there is an inflation twist. The steep slide in petrol sales ties directly to a -19.9% y/y change in the price of gasoline, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economic, Economist, employment, Growth, Housing, interest rate, lumber, material, recovery, steel, tenders
Comments Off on With Construction Not Immune, Retail Sales Speak of Slowdown
Friday, September 1st, 2023
Article source: ConstructConnect
The headline number for U.S. jobs growth in August, from today’s release of the Employment Situation report, authored by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is +187,000, which sounds pretty good at first reading. Upon closer examination, however, it loses some luster.
A month ago, July’s U.S. total number of jobs tally was 156.342 million. The new and revised number now being reported for July is 156.232 million. The difference takes a -110,000 bite out of the total jobs figure.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Construction industry, Economic, Economist, Growth
Comments Off on Except for Construction, Deceleration in U.S. Jobs Growth in August
Thursday, March 17th, 2022
Article source: ConstructConnect
(1) The latest inflation figure for the U.S., from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is +7.9%, a several-decades high. It’s the year-over-year percentage change in February’s all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), for all urban consumers. The ‘core’ rate of inflation, which excludes price-volatile food and energy items, is +6.4% y/y. The fact everyone is being ensnared in the strong price advances is captured by the performance of the CPI sub-category ‘food at home’, which has ballooned to +8.6% y/y.
(2) The price of gasoline in February was +38.0% y/y and that was before the repercussions for oil markets from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine made their way to the pump. In early March, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude crossed above $100 USD per barrel for the first time in eight years, dating back to 2014. Petrol’s price per gallon has risen above $4.50 in some states and it seems unlikely that will prove to be the ceiling.
(3) Some relaxation in the headline inflation rate will eventually come from resolution of the notorious supply chain bottlenecks that have tied up cargo shipments at ports and along transportation routes. Also, there will be an easing in general price inflation, as a corollary of slower economic growth, resulting from the increases in interest rates being implemented by central banks. The Federal Reserve has just upped the target range for its federal funds rate to between 0.25% and 0.50%. The Bank of Canada has lifted its overnight rate to 0.50%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Construction, house, Labor, lumber, market, material, money, recovery, residential
Comments Off on 12 Mid-March Economic Nuggets
Friday, September 10th, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
According to Statistics Canada, the Canadian total jobs count climbed by +90,000 in August to sit at just under 19 million. The year-over-year gain in employment has been only slightly under a million jobs (+958,000). Ontario (+419,000 jobs) and British Columbia (+201,000 jobs) have been the two provinces with the best records in nominal jobs creation over the past 12 months.
The Canadian seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate downshifted to 7.1% in August from 7.5% in July and was a marked improvement over August 2020’s 10.2%. The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) unemployment rate, adjusted to the same calculation methodology as is adopted in the U.S., shrank to 5.8% from 6.2% in July and 9.0% in August a year ago. The R-3 U rate (i.e., its official title) was almost a match for the 5.3% NSA U rate rung up in the U.S. in August.
Some notable achievements were realized in Canada’s labour market in the latest month. The ‘total’ jobs recovery ratio in Canada, versus February-to-April’s huge drop last year, has now risen to 94.8%. But in ‘services’, and this is where breaking out the noisemakers is warranted, the jobs claw-back ratio has almost reached completion, 99.4%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, ConstructConnect, Economic
Comments Off on Canada Reached Some Labour Market Milestones in August
Friday, September 3rd, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
August’s Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) says that the total number of jobs in the U.S. economy rose by +235,000 in the latest month. A gain of nearly a quarter of a million jobs may sound like a lot, but in the grand scheme of things, it’s rather tame.
Compare it with the month prior’s performance. July was originally reported at +943,000 jobs. That figure has now been revised higher to +1.053 million.
Job creation in August became bogged down. It was probably due to the coronavirus making a comeback, by way of the Delta variant, and threatening a fourth wave heading into the Fall.
The best illustration of how hiring tapped out in August can be found in the ‘leisure and hospitality’ sector. The economy-wide staffing change with bars and restaurants and hotels/motels in the latest month was zero.
Nevertheless, it’s encouraging to note that the year over year change in ‘leisure and hospitality’ employment is a strong +17.4%.
Total employment is now +4.3% y/y; construction employment is +2.7%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economist, Economy, employ, employment, jobless, jobs, Labor, market
Comments Off on Little Meat on the Bones of the August U.S. Jobs Report
Thursday, July 15th, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
A Compelling Megaproject Story
ConstructConnect announced today that June 2021’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $38.4 billion (green shaded box, Table 8 below), an increase of +14.4% vs May 2021’s $33.6 billion (originally reported as $32.5 billion).
Compared with June 2020, the latest month’s dollar volume of total nonresidential starts was -4.3%. On a year-to-date basis (i.e., Jan-Jun 2021/Jan-Jun 2020), total nonresidential starts have been -10.9%.
View this information as an infographic
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economic, Economist, Economy, employ, employment, Housing, interest rate, job, lumber, shareknowledge, steel, US
Comments Off on June’s Nonresidential Construction Starts +14% M/M, But -11% YTD
Tuesday, July 6th, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
This article consists of seven cluster charts of four graphs each, showing monthly employment levels over the past 20-plus years in 28 sub-sectors of the U.S. economy.
In every sub-sector, there were pandemic-related downturns in jobs counts in the Spring of last year. Nevertheless, it’s easy to see where jobs growth is on a long-term upward path, not to be deterred by a temporary setback.
On the flip side, there are industries where jobs prospects are clearly flagging.
The types of jobs covered are based in: resources; manufacturing; logistics and environmental; desk work (i.e., office-based); institutional (schools and hospitals) and real estate; accommodation, hospitality and entertainment; and ‘new wave’ (security services, couriers, pharma and software publishing).
There are text boxes accompanying each cluster which set out the highlights from the four workplaces featured. But there are some further observations to be made.
In the ‘Resources’ cluster, none of the four sub-sectors is showing a trend towards long-term jobs growth. Rather, the opposite appears to be the case.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economy, employment, Growth, Hospitality & Entertainment, Institutional, job, jobless, jobs, Logistics & Environmental, manufacturing, market, New Wave, Office-based
Comments Off on Exiting the Pandemic, Where the Jobs Are
Tuesday, July 6th, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
June was an excellent month for overall net jobs creation in the U.S., according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Total employment in the nation rose by +850,000 positions.
The construction sector, however, was left out of the bonanza. Staffing among the ‘hard hat’ contingent contracted by -7,000 jobs. The major plus and minus employment shifts within construction occurred with residential specialty contractors (i.e., sub-contractors), +13,000 jobs; nonresidential specialty contractors, -15,000 jobs; and heavy and civil general contractors, -11,000 jobs.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, construct, Construction, Construction industry, jobless, jobs, Labor, lumber, market, recovery, US
Comments Off on Construction Left Out of June’s U.S. Big Jobs Advance
Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
The ten graphs in this article update the latest housing starts information for the U.S. and Canada through May 2021. Both countries are currently experiencing new home building booms. Super low mortgage and secondary-financing interest rates, a build-up of savings while being locked down during the pandemic and the pronounced shift to working from home and escaping from crowded downtown cores have been some of the major contributors to the uptick in new accommodation demand.
U.S. housing ‘starts’ appear to have settled in around 1.6 million units per month, seasonally adjusted and annualized (SAAR). The Canadian monthly average seems to be about 270,000 units, although twice this year the number has risen much higher, 308,000 in January and 333,000 in March.
The case for saying the ‘boom’ has been stronger in Canada than in the U.S. can be made in simple fashion. Monthly average starts on a SAAR basis in the U.S. year to date (Jan-May 2021) are an impressive +22.5%. The comparable change for Canada, though, is an even more outstanding +48.3%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, ConstructConnect, Construction, Economy, Housing, US
Comments Off on Latest U.S. and Canadian Housing Starts in 10 Graphs
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