Posts Tagged ‘Canada’
Wednesday, December 23rd, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
The focus for CMD’s construction statistics, both in the U.S. and Canada, is on actual and forecast levels of starts.
There is another data set supplied by government agencies – i.e., the Census Bureau and Statistics Canada − known as the put-in-place (PIP) investment spending series.
For ‘starts’, the total value of a project is entered in the month when, according to a best estimate, ground is broken. The starts are often referred to as ‘lumpy’, since the largest projects play outsized roles.
Starts totals are built-up from the summation of all individual projects that are in the data base.
Conceptually, the PIP data set differs in that it simulates progress payments as projects proceed.
For example, while PIP numbers are actually based on owners’ and others’ estimates of capital spending across a total universe of construction activity, a $60 billion office building beginning in July of this year will be theoretically captured (approximately) as $20 billion appearing in 2015; $30 billion in 2016; and the final $10 billion in 2017.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, construct, Economy, US
Comments Off on U.S. Put-in-place Construction Growth to be near 9% in 2016 and 2017 (Parts 1)
Monday, December 21st, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
In the previous Economy at a Glance, there was an examination of states and provinces according to their January-to-November 2015 dollar volumes and year-to-date percentage changes of non-residential building construction starts.
The data source is CMD’s web-accessible ‘Insight’ research material.
This time, we’ll look at starts that are heavy engineering/civil in nature. Again, Canadian provinces will be mixed in with U.S. states.
Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick have been condensed into an ‘Atlantic Canada’ designation.
In the engineering construction category, however, those easternmost provinces should not be lightly dismissed.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, construct, US
Comments Off on State and Province Rankings by Year-to-date Engineering/Civil Starts
Friday, November 13th, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
- Globally, the U.S. economy is outperforming all others.
- Europe is still sluggish and the ECB (European Central Bank) may embark on more quantitative easing. Likewise Japan and its central bank. China’s monetary agency has been lowering interest rates to stimulate growth.
- In the mid-00s, China accounted for 40% to 50% of world demand for most commodities. With China’s slowdown, prices for raw materials worldwide are in the doldrums.
- The present economic forecast can be labeled a ‘throwback’ in the sense that it’s similar to the 1990s and earlier when the U.S. always led growth internationally.
- Furthermore, in those ‘old’ days, U.S. prospects were limited by large-volume foreign energy imports. Now, thanks to domestic fracking, that handicap has been lifted.
- The U.S. monthly foreign trade deficit (annualized) has shrunk from a range of -$600 to -$800 (billions) to -$400 to -$600 (billions). The reduction is quite positive for GDP.
- China’s growth has dimmed from a range of +10% to +12% to an ‘official figure’ of +6.5%. Many analysts believe the nation’s annual advance may truly be closer to +3.5%.
- In an unprecedented turnaround, there have been several months this year when the U.S. has recorded a trade surplus with both OPEC and Saudi Arabia. A cause for headlines.
- The Federal Reserve will likely begin to hike the federal funds rate in December. The increments over the next couple of years will almost certainly be tiny (100 basis points at most each year, where 100 basis points = 1.00%).
- When the U.S. economy is functioning on all cylinders, annual ‘real’ (i.e., adjusted for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) growth is +3.5%. From 2015 through 2017, probably the best that can be hoped for is +2.0% to +2.5%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, Economic, employe, job, jobless, market, US
Comments Off on U.S. Economy and Construction Markets – Executive Summary for Greenbuild
Friday, November 6th, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
There were worries after the issuance of labor market reports for August and September that indicated month-to-month job creation in the U.S. was slowing to +150,000 or less.
October’s data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) sends those clouds scurrying away.
The BLS says the latest net increase in jobs was +271,000, the greatest gain in any month so far this year. It lifts the average in 2015, with only November and December still remaining, to +206,000.
While 2014’s monthly average, January to October, was somewhat faster, at +236,000, a figure of +200,000 or higher warrants an enthusiastic response.
America’s jobless rate now sits at 5.0%, a marginal decline from September’s 5.1%, but more significantly down versus October 2014’s 5.7%.
Unless some other statistics on the U.S. economy (e.g., retail trade) come in far worse than expected, the Federal Reserve will now almost assuredly begin to take action on interest rates at the December meeting of its Open Market Committee (FOMC).
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Tags: Alex Carrick, BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, employ, employment, Fed, FOMC, interest rate, job, jobless, Labor, Open Market Committee, rate hike, US
Comments Off on October’s Jobs Report: Terrific for U.S.; Maybe Marvelous for Canada
Friday, November 6th, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
Tables 1 and 2 accompanying this Economy at a Glance compare labor markets with home prices in major U.S. and Canadian cities.
The reason for conducting this analysis can be summed up succinctly. It shows where job prospects are brightest while home ownership is cheapest.
The labor market ‘composite’ ranking has been based on an assessment of two criteria: year-over-year employment growth (from fastest to slowest) and unemployment rates (from lowest to highest).
Median or average home prices (and their year-over-year percentage changes) can be found at the web sites of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
It would be interesting to draw a line connecting every city to its doppelganger in the tables, but that would yield a confusing blizzard. Therefore, only ones in support of this EAAG’s headline are shown.
From the U.S. table, it’s clear that San Jose (2) and San Francisco (5) have strong labor markets that are accompanied by high home prices – i.e., on the right side of the table, they have corresponding rankings of (1) and (2) respectively.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, home, Housing, housing market, housing price, job, jobless, Labor, market, metro, price, US
Comments Off on Where Job Prospects are Brightest and Home Ownership is Cheapest
Friday, October 16th, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
It’s not rocket science. There are a few key benchmarks to be aware of concerning U.S. and Canadian labor markets.
For the U.S. economy, a net jobs gain of 170,000 in any given month will be viewed as acceptable by most economists, analysts and pundits.
If the figure climbs to 200,000 or higher, their mood will elevate into a range from happy to ecstatic.
Below 170,000, doubts creep in. That’s why the Department of Labor’s September number of +143,000, combined with a downward revision of August’s level to +136,000, was met with such alarm, at first.
Stock markets reacted negatively to the news. But then another train of thought took over.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, Department of Labor, Economic, employment, Federal Reserve, job, Job-creation, jobless, Labor, labor market, market, stock, trend
Comments Off on Mild Turbulence in U.S. and Canadian Labor Markets
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