Posts Tagged ‘ConstructConnect’
Thursday, April 16th, 2020
Article source: ConstructConnect
- A forewarning for the U.S. in Canada’s March Labor Market Numbers
- 5 Shocking Declines in Shopkeeper Sales, But 1 Good News Story
- Canadian Part-time Work Evaporates
- A Drop in Oil Demand that will Muddy the Waters for OPEC
- S. Initial Jobless Claims Climb to 22 Million in 4 Weeks
The times are turbulent. There’s no point in dilly-dallying. Let’s jump right in with an examination of the latest data releases from public and private sector sources.
5 Shocking Declines in Shopkeeper Sales, But 1 Good News Story
March’s U.S. Advance Monthly Sales of Retail and Food Services report sets out some big month-to-month percentage changes. Most, but not all, were on the downside.
Five sub-categories experienced declines from February to March of more than one-fifth. Performing worst was the category ‘clothing and clothing accessory stores’, -50.5%. The four others with severe sales contractions were: ‘furniture and home furnishing stores’, -26.8%; ‘food services and drinking places’, -26.5%; ‘motor vehicle and parts dealers’, -25.6%; and ‘sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores’, -23.3%.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, Canada, ConstructConnect, Construction, Economic, Economist, Economy, employment, material, recovery
Comments Off on 5 Mid-April Economic Nuggets
Wednesday, April 15th, 2020
Article source: ConstructConnect
- On the medical front, there are statistics on infection rates and mortality rates. Such data points are then held up against the figures that prevailed during the SARS and H1N1 outbreaks and the influenza scourge of 1918. On the business side, employment and GDP performances are assessed relative to what occurred during the Financial Crisis, the Great Depression and averages over of all recessions. There’s a lesson to be learned while swimming in this numbers-saturated sea: crises come and go, but statistics live forever.
- Add to the list of statistics a new one, the ‘compliance’ rate. The compliance rate is the proportion of the population that is adhering to ‘social distancing’. It’s a surprisingly high 90%. In initial ‘modeling’ about the spread of the disease, only 50% was the assumption made concerning the general population’s willingness to stay indoors to defeat this thing.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, banking, bids, build, Canada, cement, CMD, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction services, coronavirus, COVID-19, developers, house, interest rate, lumber, material, money, oil, recovery, residential, shareknowledge, steel, tenders
Comments Off on Notes from the Trenches (14)
Wednesday, February 19th, 2020
Article source: ConstructConnect
There are certainly hints that the coronavirus outbreak could be the ‘Black Swan’ that will bring the decade-long period of U.S. economic expansion to an end. Are the statistics being reported out of China accurate? How virulent is the disease? Can it realistically be contained within limited geographic regions?
 Suspensions of airline routes, postponements of travel plans, and overseas cancellations of high-profile sporting events, as well as an underlying shift in peoples’ appetite for dining out, cruising their local mall, or gathering in a public space do not bode well for the next while at least, or until more clarity has been achieved concerning COVID-19’s damaging effects.
Nevertheless, the latest weeks have featured a particularly active generation of private sector and government agency data releases concerning the economy. Some of the best ‘nuggets’ are summarized below.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, China, ConstructConnect, Deficit, Economy, employ, employment, Energy Sector, home, house, Housing, interest rate, jobless, manufacturing, oil imports
Comments Off on 9 Mid-February Economic Nuggets
Tuesday, November 5th, 2019
Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Economist, Economy, employment, Growth, Housing, interest rate, jobless, Labor, manufacturing
Comments Off on U.S. October Jobs Growth Not as Underwhelming as First Appears
Thursday, October 17th, 2019
Recently, there has been an easing of tensions in two key areas impacting the global economy. The U.S. and China have reached a first phase agreement towards resolving their trade disputes and the U.K. and E.U. are speaking again with the goal of avoiding a ‘hard’ Brexit. A new negotiated arrangement would alleviate the pain from the U.K withdrawing ‘cold turkey.’
At the same time, though, there are multitudinous geopolitical hot spots around the world. Turkey’s military incursion into northern Syria is of particular concern and potentially most destabilizing. Furthermore, an inquiry into the impeachment of the U.S. President has gained surprising traction. Some polls indicate more than half of Americans support such a measure.
No doubt, these are interesting times. With the foregoing as backdrop, there are the following additional nuggets to be gleaned from the latest public and private sector data releases.
(1) Initial Jobless Claims Return to Bullish
When watching for signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, one of the first flashing lights will be a worsening in the weekly ‘initial jobless claims’ number. In the second half of September, it seemed that such an occurrence was underway. For September 21st, the initial jobless claims figure increased to 215,000 from 210,000 the week before. Then on September 28th, it rose further to 220,000. A worrying trend appeared to be underway. But in the latest report, for October 5th, it eased again—which is to say, it improved—to 210,000. When the figure climbs back above 240,000, a level not seen in several years, it will be time to pay more attention.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Economic, employment, Growth, job, jobless
Comments Off on 9 Mid-October Economic Nuggets—With an Emphasis on Manufacturing’s Struggles
Tuesday, August 6th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
Fed Becomes Erratic in Response to Unorthodox Economic Policy
After achieving +3.1% GDP growth in Q1, the U.S. economy stayed healthy in Q2 at +2.1%. In July, according to the latest ‘Employment Situation’ report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), +164,000 net jobs were created in America, on top of a +193,000 gain the month before.
The unemployment rate continues to sit at an exceptionally low 3.7%. Inflation is a little less than +2.0% year over year. All in all, the U.S. economy is in extraordinarily good shape.
How is the Federal Reserve responding? It just lowered its key policy-setting interest rate by 25 basis points (100 bps = 1.00%). It has also suggested that further cuts are no sure thing.
Orthodox economic policy would see a strong U.S. economy raising other economies around the world. Orthodox policy would permit relatively free ‘goods’ flows internationally, resulting in better global trade and heightened demand for commodities. A ‘rising tide would lift all boats’.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Economic, Economic policy, Economics, Economist, Economy, Growth
Comments Off on U.S. Strong Jobs Growth in July Underlines Fed’s Erratic Interest Rate Move
Thursday, July 18th, 2019
Chinese Economic Slowdown
China’s latest quarter-over-quarter ‘real’ (i.e., after adjustment for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate was its slowest since 1992. 2019’s second quarter advance, annualized, was only +6.2%. That level of increase anywhere else in the world would be greeted with celebration, but for China, it’s a relative crawl. While the +10% to +12% gains of the mid-00s have become a thing of the past, +7% or more has still been commonplace in the Middle Kingdom of late. The Chinese economy would greatly benefit from an end to its trade dispute with the U.S. which has seen sales to American consumers significantly curtailed by tariffs.
Meanwhile U.S. Economy Roars
At least with respect to employment, the U.S. economy continues to roar. One of the best indicators of the strength in the jobs market is the ‘weekly initial jobless claims’ data series. It measures first-time applications for unemployment insurance. The figure soars when the economy sinks. As Graph 1 shows, initial jobless claims in the middle of the 2008-2009 recession skyrocketed to 665,000. But they have now been less than 300,000 – i.e., the benchmark usually adopted to denote a solid jobs recovery – for 226 weeks in a row (i.e., more than four years). They even dropped below 200,000 twice in April of this year.
The length of time from high to low in the initial jobless claims curve has been 10 years, exactly corresponding with the duration of the current upbeat economic cycle. When searching for an early warning sign that the economy is faltering, be wary of initial jobless claims rising back to 300,000.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, China, ConstructConnect, Economic, Economist, employment, Growth, Housing, market, material, money
Comments Off on 7 Mid-July Economic Nuggets, With Emphasis on Jobs Markets
Friday, July 5th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
Strong U.S. Jobs Growth has Interest Rate Implications
The U.S. total number of jobs in June shot up by +224,000, according to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). A slight rise in the ‘participation rate’, to 62.9% from 62.8% in May, caused June’s unemployment rate to climb a notch, from 3.6% to 3.7%. A 3.7% level of unemployment is still remarkably tight.
Everyone’s keeping a close eye out for signs of a weakening U.S. economy that would warrant an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Graph 1). They won’t find justification for such a move in June’s jobs numbers. May’s lackluster +75,000 addition had pointed to trouble possibly brewing, but that’s become old news. It’s been superseded by fresh buoyancy.
It should be pointed out, however, that the jobs performances in some sectors have taken an interesting turn of late. This will be examined in the next section.
Worth noting, also, is that despite June’s strength, average monthly job creation in the U.S. so far in 2019 has been +172,000. With half a year having already sped by, +172,000 is a decline of more than a quarter (-26.8%) compared with January-to-June 2018’s average of +235,000.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Construction services, Economist, Economy, employment, Growth, jobless, jobs
Comments Off on June Jobs Reports: U.S. Bounces Back; Canada Weak M/M but Strong Ytd
Thursday, June 13th, 2019
U.S. Jobs +75,000 in May, but Flat After Revisions
Article source: ConstructConnect
The latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) records a gain of +75,000 in total U.S. jobs in May. The +75,000 month-to-month increase was the second lowest so far this year. February’s figure was worse at +56,000.
What’s hidden, however, unless one digs a little deeper, is the fact that total U.S. employment in May really didn’t increase at all. The total jobs number now being reported for May, at 151.095 million, is the same as the total jobs number that was published a month ago for April. The explanation lies in the fact that April’s number has been revised down by -75,000.
The national unemployment rate in May stayed extremely tight, at 3.6%, the same as in the previous April. The participation rate likewise remained steady, at 62.8%.
The composition of May’s +75,000 jobs performance was an interesting combination of only +8,000 in goods production, +82,000 in the private services-providing sector and -15,000 with government. The public sector’s jobs loss was at the state (-10,000) and local (-9,000) levels, as Washington made a minor upwards staffing adjustment (+4,000).
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, employ, employment, job, jobless, jobs, Labor, market
Comments Off on May’s Weakening in U.S. Jobs Growth and the Inverted Yield Curve
Friday, May 3rd, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
Explanation of Quarterly and Annual GDP Percent Change Calculations
The mathematics employed to calculate ‘real’ gross domestic product (GDP) levels and rates of change are more convoluted than one might suppose. For a new quarter, GDP line items (e.g., consumption, investment, government spending and exports/imports), after removing the effects of inflation, are added up and adjusted for seasonality. They are also expressed as if they are annual results – i.e., the quarterly figures are ‘blown up’ to a corresponding annual level.
The ‘official’ GDP figure for any year is the average of the levels for the four quarters within that year and the year-to-year growth rate is the percentage change between annual averages.
The figure most often quoted by the press, however, is a quarter-to-quarter GDP growth rate annualized. Such a number compares latest-quarter GDP with previous-quarter GDP to derive a percentage change. Then that percentage change is compounded to the power of four (i.e., ‘annualized’) to account for four quarters in a year.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, construct, ConstructConnect, Economist, Economy, GDP, US
Comments Off on Prolonged Streak of U.S. Beating Canada in Q/Q GDP Growth
|
