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June Jobs Reports: U.S. Bounces Back; Canada Weak M/M but Strong Ytd

Friday, July 5th, 2019

Article source: ConstructConnect

Strong U.S. Jobs Growth has Interest Rate Implications

The U.S. total number of jobs in June shot up by +224,000, according to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). A slight rise in the ‘participation rate’, to 62.9% from 62.8% in May, caused June’s unemployment rate to climb a notch, from 3.6% to 3.7%. A 3.7% level of unemployment is still remarkably tight.

June Jobs Reports: U.S. Bounces Back Graphic

Everyone’s keeping a close eye out for signs of a weakening U.S. economy that would warrant an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Graph 1). They won’t find justification for such a move in June’s jobs numbers. May’s lackluster +75,000 addition had pointed to trouble possibly brewing, but that’s become old news. It’s been superseded by fresh buoyancy.

It should be pointed out, however, that the jobs performances in some sectors have taken an interesting turn of late. This will be examined in the next section.

Worth noting, also, is that despite June’s strength, average monthly job creation in the U.S. so far in 2019 has been +172,000. With half a year having already sped by, +172,000 is a decline of more than a quarter (-26.8%) compared with January-to-June 2018’s average of +235,000.

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Mid-June Economic Nuggets Focusing on Retail, Inflation and Housing Starts

Friday, June 21st, 2019

Article source: ConstructConnect

well ask, since it went by so fast − there are the following economic nuggets from various private and public sector firms and agencies to be aware of and mull over.

Mid-June Economic Nuggets Graphic

Consumer Spending Becomes Lethargic

In the ‘second estimate’ of U.S. Q1 2019 ‘real’ (adjusted for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the quarter-to-quarter annualized pickup was a strong +3.1%. Consumer spending, however, which usually plays a major role in GDP’s advance, was relatively quiet this time around. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) line item of GDP was only +1.3% per annum. It was soundly beaten by Gross Private Domestic Investment, +4.3%, and an improvement in net foreign trade, with exports +4.8% and imports, -2.5%. Investment was led by spending on intellectual property products, +7.2%.

A shift towards lethargic consumer spending has also become apparent in recent retail sales figures. Total U.S. retail and food services sales in May were +3.2% year over year. Retail as a standalone was +3.1% and ‘food services and drinking places,’ +3.7%. Less than a year ago, in July 2018, retail sales were +6.2% y/y and ‘restaurant, fast food, bar, and tavern’ sales, +9.6%.

Retail Sales Mainly in a Range of +3.1 to +3.7% Y/Y

Within retail, and as set out in Graph 1, several shopkeepers achieved May sales increases ranging from +3.1% to +3.7% y/y. ‘Health care and personal care stores’ rang up receipts of +3.4% y/y; ‘general merchandise stores’, +3.3%; and ‘gasoline stations,’ +3.2%. Gasoline station sales, despite drawing more from aligned variety store activities, can still be heavily influenced by fluctuations in the price of petrol. In the latest month, the price of gas was flat compared with 12 months prior, and therefore had a neutral impact on cash register receipts at service stations.
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U.S. Put-in-place Construction Spending Hits a Soft Spot

Monday, May 13th, 2019

Article source: ConstructConnect

Total U.S. put-in-place construction spending, after increasing steadily (although slowly) for seven years, from 2011 through 2017, has lost upwards momentum over the past year and a bit. The cause of the overall weakness has been a retreating residential sector. Nonresidential has continued to exhibit a decent degree of uplift.

U.S. Total Put-in-place Construction Spending Graphic

For various type-of-structure categories of construction, the charts in this article showcase three data sets – (1) seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly ‘current’ dollar volume levels (where ‘current’ means not adjusted for inflation); (2) month-to-month percent changes in the dollar volume; and (3) year-over-year percent changes in the dollar volume.

As shown in Graph 1 below, total spending on U.S. construction reached its zenith in May of last year, at $1.324 trillion. Since that peak, it has fallen by 3.2%, to land at $1.282 trillion in the latest month for which data is available, March 2019.

The average of month-to-month percent changes for total U.S. put-in-place construction spending during the past ten years has been +0.4%. In March 2019, the month-over-month figure was in negative territory, at -0.9%.

Over the past 10 years, the average of year-over-year percent changes recorded each month for total put-in-place construction has been +4.2%. In March 2019, the year-over-year change was -0.8%.

The ‘glory days’ for U.S. put-in-place construction have, for the moment at least, receded.

Total put-in-place construction was doing its best between 2012 and early 2017, when the y/y percent change curve was consistently above the 10-year average line, as seen in the lower portion of Graph 1. Recently, U.S. put-in-place construction has fallen off its earlier faster pace.

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2018 Residential Construction Market Highlights − U.S. and Canada

Thursday, March 7th, 2019

Article source: ConstructConnect

Issuance of year-end data on U.S. new homebuilding activity was delayed due to the partial government shutdown which kept Census Bureau workers away from their desks.

2018 Residential Construction Market Highlights − U.S. and Canada Graphic

Over the past month, however, there have been diligent catch-up efforts and December’s preliminary residential ‘starts’ and ‘permits’ numbers are now available.

There are ‘starts’ at the national level; but for states and cities, the figures are based on building permits.

This article will mainly concentrate on new home groundbreakings in America’s largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). ‘Permits’ in units will be accepted as equivalent to ‘starts’.

‘Permits’ are first published by the Census Bureau, then repackaged in a more user-friendly form by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

When Canadian statistics are mentioned, they have been made available by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and they are ‘starts’.

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Rankings of States and Provinces by Roadwork Construction Starts

Monday, March 4th, 2019

Article source: ConstructConnect

The table and maps accompanying this article feature comparisons of highway, street and roadwork construction starts in all the states, plus District of Columbia, in two ways: (1) by dollar-volume level, taking the annual average over the past two years (2017 and 2018); and (2) per capita (i.e., the dollar volume in (1) divided by each individual state’s population).

Rankings of States and Provinces by Roadwork Construction Starts Graphic

In some states, there can be considerable variation in the dollar volume of roadwork starts from one year to the next. Therefore, it seems only fair to smooth the series out a bit, and hence the reason for utilizing a latest-two-years average.

On the left-hand side of Table 1, there is a ranking of all states and D.C. according to their level of roadwork construction starts. Sixteen states have exceeded an annual average of $1.0 billion over the past two years and they are highlighted in Map 1. Washington state, at $995 million, and New Jersey, at $980 million, just missed the cut.

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Top 25 U.S. Cities for Medical Facility Construction Starts

Tuesday, February 12th, 2019

Article source: ConstructConnect

There are 51 metropolitan statistical areas (CMAs) in the United States with population levels above one million each. Drawing from ConstructConnect’s data pool for those 51 cities, Table 1 ranks the Top 25 markets in America for medical facility construction starts in 2018. (Map 1 showcases the Top 20.)

Leading all cities last year was Washington, D.C., with groundbreakings on hospitals, clinics, nursing and seniors’ homes combined valued at $1.3 billion. Next in line were Cleveland ($1.1 billion), Phoenix ($883 million), Cincinnati ($858 million), Pittsburgh ($740 million), Atlanta and Orlando (tied at $736 million), Tampa-St. Petersburg ($718 million); and Houston ($708 million).

Notice the presence of a pair of cities in Ohio – i.e., Cleveland and Cincinnati – only a rung or two short of the summit in the dollar-volume listing.

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Top 25 U.S. Cities for School Construction Starts

Wednesday, February 6th, 2019

Article source: ConstructConnect

There are 51 metropolitan statistical areas (CMAs) in the United States with population levels above one million. Drawing from ConstructConnect’s data pool for those 51 cities, Table 1 ranks the Top 25 markets in America for educational facility construction starts last year. (Map 1 showcases the Top 20.)

 

Educational Facility Construction Starts
Top 25 Markets among Biggest U.S. Cities*
2018
Rank by
2018 2017 2018 % Change
$ Value City / MSA                    ($billions) 2018/2017
1 New York, NY-NJ $3.290 $3.367 2.3%
2 Dallas-Ft Worth, TX $2.355 $3.100 31.7%
3 Los Angeles, CA $2.416 $2.626 8.7%
4 Houston, TX $2.778 $2.592 -6.7%
5 Seattle-Tacoma, WA $1.970 $1.560 -20.8%
6 Chicago, IL $1.188 $1.219 2.6%
7 Boston, MA $2.023 $1.217 -39.8%
8 San Francisco – Oakland, CA $1.014 $1.145 13.0%
9 Portland, OR-WA $0.370 $1.117 201.8%
10 Philadelphia, PA $0.790 $1.090 38.0%
11 Atlanta, GA $0.807 $0.991 22.8%
12 Washington, DC – VA  – MD – WV $1.279 $0.966 -24.5%
13 San Diego, CA $0.543 $0.907 67.2%
14 Baltimore, MD $0.917 $0.866 -5.6%
15 Sacramento, CA $0.291 $0.852 193.0%
16 Austin, TX $0.961 $0.762 -20.7%
17 San Antonio, TX $1.142 $0.735 -35.6%
18 Las Vegas, NV $0.286 $0.654 128.7%
19 Orlando, FL $0.640 $0.613 -4.1%
20 Salt Lake City, UT $0.660 $0.609 -7.7%
21 Cleveland, OH $0.369 $0.586 59.0%
22 Raleigh, NC $0.372 $0.574 54.3%
23 Denver, CO $0.422 $0.573 35.8%
24 Minneapolis – St Paul, MN – WI $0.843 $0.561 -33.4%
25 Providence, RI-MA $0.306 $0.551 80.1%
*There are 51 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the U.S. with populations exceeding onemillion.
Data source and table: ConstructConnect ‘Insight’.

 

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Infographic: Canada’s Fast Population Growth

Friday, February 1st, 2019

Due to its complexity, much of the subject matter concerning the economy requires detailed editorial commentary, often supported by relevant tables and graphs. This infographic looks at Canada’s extraordinarily fast population growth and the latest statistics.

Infographic: Canada's latest population statistics

At the same time, though, there are many topics (e.g., relating to demographics, housing starts, etc.) that cry out for compelling ‘short-hand’ visualizations.

Whichever path is followed, the point of the journey, almost always, is to reach a bottom line or two.

To provide additional value at its corporate blog site, ConstructConnect is now pleased to offer an ongoing series of Infographics.

These will help readers sort out the ‘big picture’ more clearly.

Click Here to view the latest infographic.

To view more infographics, Click Here

Also read the related article, “15 Bullet Points on Canada’s Extraordinarily Fast Population Growth“.

Series (3 of 7): Rankings of States by Industrial Subsector Jobs – Information Services

Friday, January 18th, 2019

Article source: ConstructConnect

Construction spending in various type-of structure categories is driven by economic circumstances within specific industrial subsectors. For example, manufacturers set the pace in industrial construction.

Rankings of States by Industrial Sub-Sector Jobs – ‘Weight’ and ‘Concentration’ Maps for Information Services Graphic

Good health in the leisure and hospitality sector provides the backing for new hotel and motel work. And jobs levels in information and financial services, as well as in more rapidly expanding fields of endeavor such as computer systems and design services, establish the need for additional office space and commercial tower square footage. (See, “Shifts in Office Jobs and Implications for Commercial Tower Construction.”)

This article is the second in a series of seven that examines key industrial sectors to determine where they are most prominent regionally. Rankings of state strength in each industrial subsector are based on both ‘weight’ and ‘concentration’ of relevant employment. ‘Weight’ is simply the number of jobs in the industrial subsector in each state. ‘Concentration’ is each state’s number of jobs in the subsector divided by the state’s population. In effect, it’s a ‘per capita’ figure, except that it’s expressed as number of jobs per million population.

By ‘weight’, the states with the largest populations are almost always high in the rankings. The rankings by ‘concentration’, however, often deliver a jolt of surprise or two.

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Infographic: U.S. Large Project Starts – High-Tech Data Centers and Hotels

Thursday, January 17th, 2019

Article source: ConstructConnect

Due to its complexity, much of the subject matter concerning the economy requires detailed editorial commentary, often supported by relevant tables and graphs. This infographic looks at U.S. large project starts in high-tech data and fulfillment centers and hotels and conference centers.

Infographic: U.S. large project starts - high-tech data and hotels

At the same time, though, there are many topics (e.g., relating to demographics, housing starts, etc.) that cry out for compelling ‘short-hand’ visualizations.

Whichever path is followed, the point of the journey, almost always, is to reach a bottom line or two.

To provide additional value at its corporate blog site, ConstructConnect is now pleased to offer an ongoing series of Infographics.

These will help readers sort out the ‘big picture’ more clearly.

To view the latest infographic.


Also read the related article, “U.S. 2018 Large Project Starts by Type of Structure“.




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