Posts Tagged ‘Construction’
Wednesday, August 17th, 2016
Article source: ConstructConnect
Below are six graphs recording 12-month moving averages of ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts.
When the value of the current month is higher than for the same month a year ago, the line will turn up; when lower, it will dip.
String a couple of similar positive or negative directional changes together over several months and one has a trend.
And that’s what the graphs are designed to do, show improving or deteriorating trends in a dozen major and more granular categories of construction work.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, ConstructConnect, Construction, Economic, Economist, nonresidential
Comments Off on Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – July 2016
Saturday, July 16th, 2016
Article source: ConstructConnect
Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – June 2016 – ConstructConnect.com
Below are six graphs recording 12-month moving averages of ConstructConnect ’s nonresidential construction starts.
When the value of the current month is higher than for the same month a year ago, the line will turn up; when lower, it will dip.
String a couple of similar positive or negative directional changes together over several months and one has a trend.
(more…)
Tags: AEC, Alex Carrick, architect, build, ConstructConnect, Construction, Economic, Economist
Comments Off on Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs – June 2016
Friday, May 13th, 2016
Article source: ConstructConnect
In Part 3 of this Economy at a Glance, we’ll conclude our examination of how certain key sectors of the Canadian and U.S. economies are performing, as captured by the slopes of their jobs graphs.
As stated in Part 1, whether or not employment is on the upswing can give a pretty good indication of which way firms in a particular sector are leaning in terms of investment spending (which may be limited to machinery and equipment) or construction projects.
The underlying data for the U.S. and Canada comes from surveys of employers. A significant point of difference is that the U.S. numbers are seasonally adjusted, while for Canada, they are moving 12-month averages of not seasonally adjusted (NSA) figures, placed in the latest month.
Some of the charts in Parts 1 and 2 grabbed one by the neck-tie and demanded that attention be paid. In Part 3, while subdued by comparison, they still offer much that is informative.
Canada Elementary and Secondary Schools (Graph 11): Demographics as a driver of elementary and secondary school attendance, and by extension new construction, is currently quite positive. The number of children in the relevant age cohort from 4 to 17, after declining from 2000 to the present, is now set to begin increasing again in fairly dramatic fashion, out to at least the mid-2030s.
Canada Community Colleges (Graph 12): The ‘community college’ category includes Quebec’s C.E.G.E.P.s (Collèges d’enseignement general et professionnel). Employment in colleges in Canada has flattened since the mid-point of 2010. Due to the fact the age-specific demographic drivers for colleges are mostly the same as for universities, both will be covered in the next section.
Canada Universities (Graph 13): Take what was said for elementary and secondary schools and turn it upside down. The primary age-relevant cohort for college and university enrolments is 18 to 26. While the population count for that faction in society has risen steadily during the 16 years since the start of the new millennium to the present, a tumble will be occurring from this point in time moving forward until about the middle of the 2020s.
Employment in universities has been exhibiting a gentler upward slope in the latest two-and-a-half years. The best hope for this branch of academia may reside in older adults and retired seniors returning to classrooms for re-training, skills upgrades and the general thrill of the learning experience. The latter may lead to a second degree in a beloved subject that was put on the back burner during the raise-a-family and bring-home-the-bacon years.
Canada Hospitals (Graph 14): In the U.S., employment in hospitals has followed a bumpy pathway since the introduction of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act in 2010. Not so in Canada, which has a long history of universal health care.
As Graph 14 so ably illustrates, there’s been nary a setback in the upward progression of the jobs level at Canada’s hospitals over the past dozen or so years. Not even during the Great Recession.
And now the federal government is planning a big boost to spending on socially- and ecologically-conscious infrastructure projects over the next 10 years. Hospital boards will be rejoicing and hospital workers will see their ranks swell.
U.S. Temporary Help Services (Graph 15): For three to four years following the 2008-2009 ‘Big Dip’ in the U.S. economy, the stirrings of employment re-birth were most apparent in the ‘temporary help services’ sub-sector jobs category. Graph 15 highlights how steeply inclined the curve was in 2010 through 2012.
The logic flows easily. Employers, shaken by the severity of the preceding precipitous plunge and worried that the recovery might not last, were quick to hire part-time workers to satisfy any increases in orders for goods or services that might come their way.
As the improving business conditions became more prolonged, this stop-gap measure ran its course and was replaced with hiring policies more favorable towards full-time positions.
Now, with the unemployment rate at only 5.0%, the need to make job offerings attractive (i.e., through benefits, pensions, etc.) has become essential.
Still, there are analysts who point to the apparent flattening, of late, in the ‘temporary help services’ curve as conveying a forewarning of harsher times pending, perhaps leading to the onset of a new recession.
The argument is as follows. Some employers are beginning to experience more challenging business conditions once again and their response has been to dismiss part-time staff. From an administrative standpoint, and perhaps even an emotional one, such a course of action is a lot easier than downsizing supposedly permanent workers.
The foregoing seems to be a lot of weight to attach to a relatively small correction in the graph.
But if one believes in being ever-vigilant, then it’s a theory worth tagging and remembering.
Tags: Alex Carrick, business, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, Construction, Economy, employ, hospital, job, oil, US
Comments Off on 15 Eye-Catching Charts that Highlight Trends in Canada and U.S. Jobs (Part 3)
Monday, May 9th, 2016
Article source: CMDGroup
Parts 1 and 2 of this Economy at a Glance carried us past the halfway point of our extended jaunt through the major changes underway in society today.
It’s time to wrap up with economy- and, indeed, life-altering transitions (8) through (12).
(8) Logistics rule: One could be forgiven for thinking that better logistics is the holy grail of aspirations.
The best strategizing generals have always known that wars aren’t necessarily won by valor or military skill.
Nor even by a single decisive victory.
To arrive at such a desirable outcome, the winning side must first have good logistics – i.e., effective means to supply warriors and machines with food and fuel. These are the secure supply lines that are so touted in military jargon.
Otherwise, you’ll find yourself retreating from Moscow, à la Napoleon Bonaparte, subsequent to a fades-too-quickly glorious success at the battle of Borodino.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, Construction, Genetic, job, market, oil, Sustainability, US
Comments Off on By No Means is it the Same Old World (Part 3)
Thursday, May 5th, 2016
Article source: CMDGroup
Part 1 of this Economy at a Glance introduced the topic of a dozen major ways in which the structure of society and the framework of the global economy are changing beyond what humankind has ever experienced before.
In Part 2, let’s dive right in with transition number (4), which will then lead organically into (5) and beyond.
(4) Rock star central bankers: Given that establishment politicians have been passing out of favor, maybe it’s just as well that central bank Chairmen and Governors have stepped into the spotlight.
Changes to taxation, spending and other fiscal tools to guide the economy have fallen out of favor and almost the whole responsibility for managing output, employment and other prosperity indicators has fallen on each nation’s central bank.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, Construction, Economy, Housing, job, market, oil, real estate, US
Comments Off on By No Means is it the Same Old World (Part 2)
Thursday, February 25th, 2016
Article source: CMDGroup
Based on the latest ‘actuals’ from Statistics Canada, the spring 2016 forecasts, out to 2019, of construction capital spending − also known as put-in-place investment – have just been calculated by CanaData.
Versus the fall of 2015, the year-over-year projections have mostly been scaled back.
Grand total constant dollar (i.e., adjusted for inflation) construction will decline a further 3.1% in 2016 after a drop of 3.4% in 2015. 2017 will see a slight improvement of +1.0%, followed by +3.5% in 2018 and +4.3% in 2019.
In the fall of last year, the comparable percentage changes were: 2015, -2.2%; 2016, +0.5%; 2017, +2.7%; and 2018, +4.1%. There was no 2019 forecast at that time.
In current dollars, 2015’s grand total was $285 billion, or -2.4% compared with $292 billion in 2014.
After a further 1.8% decline in this current year, 2016 will chalk up a volume of slightly less than $280 billion.
Current dollar gains of 2.9% and 5.6% in 2017 and 2018 respectively will finally lift the total dollar value of all Canadian put-in-place construction activity above $300 billion two years from now.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, Construction, dollar, Economic, Economy, US
Comments Off on Canadian Put-in-place Construction Forecasts: Spring 2016 Edition (Part 1)
Monday, January 25th, 2016
Article source: CMDGroup
The cost of construction is largely determined by labor and material inputs.
The previous Economy at a Glance studied U.S. year-over-year average hourly wages in construction relative to all private sector jobs and other major industries.
Expanding the analysis somewhat, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in its monthly Employment Situation report, publishes four series on wage rates. Table B3 records average hourly and average weekly earnings for all employees in a range of industries. Table B8 has similar average hourly and weekly earnings information, but only for production and non-supervisory personnel.
For construction, the December 2015 year-over-year results were +2.9% (average hourly) and +4.2% (average weekly) from Table B3 and +2.7% (average hourly) and +3.3% (average weekly) from Table B8.
To summarize, the earnings results for construction ranged from +2.7% to +4.2% annually.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, CMD, CMDGroup, Construction, cost, Labor, material, US, wage
Comments Off on Now it’s the Turn of U.S. Construction Material Costs
Friday, January 22nd, 2016
Article source: CMDGroup
At the end of 2010, the unemployment rate in the United States was 9.3%.
Five years later, as of December 2015, the national jobless figure has been cut nearly in half, to stand at 5.0%.
There’s a common lament being heard that the tightening in U.S. labor markets has been overstated because a large bloc of potential workers has given up hunting for a job.
Furthermore, so the argument goes, whatever employment improvement has happened isn’t yet leading to better wages and salaries and the economy won’t really build up a head of steam until workers are being paid more, so they can spend more.
This Economy at a Glance will look at the percentage changes of year-over-year average hourly earnings for both production and supervisory workers in the private sector as a whole, and for major industrial sectors. Historical data can be readily downloaded from the web site of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
In the hopes of finding trend lines, the analysis in this EAAG will be limited to the past five years.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, CMD, CMDGroup, Construction, Economic, finance, jobs, market, money
Comments Off on U.S. Wage Gains: Construction versus other Major Industrial Sectors
Friday, January 15th, 2016
Article source: CMDGroup
CMD announced today that December’s level of U.S. construction starts, excluding residential work, was $22.2 billion, a drop of 6.9% versus November.
CMD announced today that December’s level of U.S. construction starts, excluding residential work, was $22.2 billion, a drop of 6.9% versus November. The pull-back was only slightly more than the usual or long-term December-versus-November percentage change, due to seasonality, of -5.0%. (To note for January, weather usually has an even greater effect in that month, -8.5%.)
Compared with December of 2014, the latest month’s starts level was -7.0%; but versus the five-year average for December over the past five years (i.e., 2010 to 2014 inclusive), it was +9.2%.
Full year 2015 starts were +1.9% relative to the same January-to-December period of 2014.
The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they altered for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, CMD, CMDGroup, Construction, Economic
Comments Off on CMD’s December Starts Fell Slightly More than Usual Seasonal Decline
Thursday, January 7th, 2016
Article source: CMDGroup
Talk to a demographer and he or she is likely to tell you that everything important that is happening in society and business can be explained by their practice or science.
As an economist, I don’t fully subscribe to such an assertion. Besides, what would I do if I didn’t have interest rates, inflation and government policy to mentally juggle as well as the study of demography?
But I don’t dismiss the claim out of hand either.
It does warrant admitting that population level, change and age-structure over time are key determinants of construction activity in several major type-of-structure categories.
That will be the focus of this Economy at a Glance, in two parts. The story will be told through the use of eight graphs.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, Canada, census, CMD, CMDGroup, Construction, Economic, Economy, Housing, job, market, real estate, US
Comments Off on Eight Demography Charts that Explain U.S. Construction Activity
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