Posts Tagged ‘Economy’
Thursday, January 7th, 2016
Article source: CMDGroup
Talk to a demographer and he or she is likely to tell you that everything important that is happening in society and business can be explained by their practice or science.
As an economist, I don’t fully subscribe to such an assertion. Besides, what would I do if I didn’t have interest rates, inflation and government policy to mentally juggle as well as the study of demography?
But I don’t dismiss the claim out of hand either.
It does warrant admitting that population level, change and age-structure over time are key determinants of construction activity in several major type-of-structure categories.
That will be the focus of this Economy at a Glance, in two parts. The story will be told through the use of eight graphs.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, Canada, census, CMD, CMDGroup, Construction, Economic, Economy, Housing, job, market, real estate, US
Comments Off on Eight Demography Charts that Explain U.S. Construction Activity
Wednesday, December 23rd, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
The focus for CMD’s construction statistics, both in the U.S. and Canada, is on actual and forecast levels of starts.
There is another data set supplied by government agencies – i.e., the Census Bureau and Statistics Canada − known as the put-in-place (PIP) investment spending series.
For ‘starts’, the total value of a project is entered in the month when, according to a best estimate, ground is broken. The starts are often referred to as ‘lumpy’, since the largest projects play outsized roles.
Starts totals are built-up from the summation of all individual projects that are in the data base.
Conceptually, the PIP data set differs in that it simulates progress payments as projects proceed.
For example, while PIP numbers are actually based on owners’ and others’ estimates of capital spending across a total universe of construction activity, a $60 billion office building beginning in July of this year will be theoretically captured (approximately) as $20 billion appearing in 2015; $30 billion in 2016; and the final $10 billion in 2017.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, construct, Economy, US
Comments Off on U.S. Put-in-place Construction Growth to be near 9% in 2016 and 2017 (Parts 1)
Thursday, September 17th, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
September 17 is fast approaching. In fact, by the time you read this, it may already have been and gone. Why is that date so important? Because that’s when the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet, with an announcement concerning interest rates to follow.
The federal funds rate hasn’t been altered from a range of 0.00% to 0.25% since December 16, 2008, nearly seven years ago. In mid-summer of this year, there seemed to be a strong likelihood the Fed would begin shifting yields higher in September. Then world stock markets fell into disarray as growth projections for China’s economy were scaled back and the yuan was devalued, slightly.
If the fed temporarily delays pulling the trigger out of concern over fragile world trade, the next FOMC meeting dates to mark on your calendar are October 28 and December 16 of this year and January 27 of 2016. Odds are pretty good that somewhere in that time frame, the fed will initiate tighter credit market action.
The Fed’s decision-making will take place against a backdrop that includes the following economic nuggets, as revealed in government reports and through media dissemination.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, CMD, CMDGroup, CSeries, Economy, Fed, FOMC, GDP, interest rate
Comments Off on A Dozen Mid-September Economic Nuggets
Thursday, September 10th, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
This Economy at a Glance examines the most interesting and surprising data from the latest U.S. foreign trade report.
(1) U.S. Oil Imports: Due to the rapid emergence of a domestic hydraulic fracturing industry, plus efficiency improvements and conservation-minded consumer behavior, there is nothing like the former U.S. energy-dependency with the rest of the world.
The steep drop in the global price of oil from a year ago, combined with some extreme exchange rate fluctuations, have rendered the dollar figures on U.S. energy trade confusing.
However, ‘Exhibit 17a’, in July’s publication, released jointly by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), presents the data in ‘barrels’.
‘Barrels’ as a volume measurement carry the same constant-valued connotation as ‘units’ for both housing starts and motor vehicle sales and ‘square footage’ for construction activity.
Year to date, through July of this year, Canada − by a considerable margin − accounted for the largest proportion of U.S. crude oil imports (41.2%). (Keep in mind that this has been without a go-ahead for the Keystone XL pipeline expansion.)
(more…)
Tags: AEC, Alex Carrick, BEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis, CMD Group, CMDGroup, Economy, Foreign Trade
Comments Off on Fascinating Statistics (for Canada, Saudi Arabia and Others) From the Latest U.S. Foreign Trade Report
Monday, August 24th, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
Yes, there are ongoing caveats concerning the U.S. economy – a disproportionate number of part-time as opposed to full-time jobs; high levels of student debt; the psychological hangover of recession-era foreclosures in the housing market; etc. Nevertheless, proof of greater strength is everywhere.
The bellwether initial jobless claims figure has been below 300,000 for 24 weeks in a row. This proxy measure for layoffs, during the week ending July 18, fell to its lowest level since 1973, when total employment was nothing like as high as it is now.
In both June and July of this year, total housing starts in America climbed above 1.2 million units (annualized) for the first time since before the recession. This was the logical result of residential building permits bettering 1.3 million units (annualized) in June.
And the almighty ‘greenback’ has become even more powerful, soaring above every other major currency, mostly by percentage changes that are in double-digits-plus.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, CMDGroup, Construction, Economy
Comments Off on As Fall Approaches, Key Aspects of The U.S. and Canadian Construction Outlooks
Monday, August 17th, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
Who can doubt that there’s an exchange-rate war underway? Almost all the world’s currencies have fallen to one degree or another versus the U.S. ‘greenback’. One of the few hold-outs, until recently, was China. Now, even Beijing has stepped back from parity.
The cries of alarm, though, have been overblown. If the yuan’s reduction doesn’t stray significantly from -2%, it won’t play a huge role in promoting China’s exports. To site an example from the retail sector, nobody ever holds a sale announcing that prices have been ‘slashed’ by 2%. If the slide continues and reaches -10%, that’ll be another story.
Since most commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, they will become slightly more expensive for Chinese buyers. This is another knock against owning the shares of companies engaged in supplying raw materials at this time. A deeper concern, though is what this says about the state of China’s economy. An output growth rate that was once 10% to 12% has slowed to a range of 6% to 7%. And that’s if China’s ‘official’ statistics are to be believed.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, CMDGroup, Economy
Comments Off on A Dozen Mid-August Economic Nuggets
|
