Posts Tagged ‘Economy’
Friday, May 3rd, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
Explanation of Quarterly and Annual GDP Percent Change Calculations
The mathematics employed to calculate ‘real’ gross domestic product (GDP) levels and rates of change are more convoluted than one might suppose. For a new quarter, GDP line items (e.g., consumption, investment, government spending and exports/imports), after removing the effects of inflation, are added up and adjusted for seasonality. They are also expressed as if they are annual results – i.e., the quarterly figures are ‘blown up’ to a corresponding annual level.
The ‘official’ GDP figure for any year is the average of the levels for the four quarters within that year and the year-to-year growth rate is the percentage change between annual averages.
The figure most often quoted by the press, however, is a quarter-to-quarter GDP growth rate annualized. Such a number compares latest-quarter GDP with previous-quarter GDP to derive a percentage change. Then that percentage change is compounded to the power of four (i.e., ‘annualized’) to account for four quarters in a year.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, construct, ConstructConnect, Economist, Economy, GDP, US
Comments Off on Prolonged Streak of U.S. Beating Canada in Q/Q GDP Growth
Friday, March 8th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
February’s Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered the kind of U.S. total employment change, month to month, that we have become unaccustomed to seeing. Net jobs growth was quite weak, at only +20,000. It’s been 17 months since the figure was comparably low, +18,000 in September 2017.
Over the last several years, the month-to-month jobs gain has usually been at least +175,000, often exceeding +200,000. In the first month of this year, January, it was +311,000.
On the brighter side, the unemployment rate in the latest month improved to 3.8% from 4.0% in the prior period.
There was only one major industrial sector with a substantial pick-up in nominal number of jobs in January, ‘professional and business services,’ +42,000. The staffing increases were evenly and widely spread among segments of the sector (e.g., accounting, design, computer, and help-wanted services).
‘Education and health services’ added just 4,000 jobs, but that was because education services declined by -19,000 jobs. ‘Health care and social assistance’ wasn’t shy about hiring, lifting its combined payroll by +23,000.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, construct, Economy, employment, Growth, job, jobless, jobs, Labor, market
Comments Off on A Chill in U.S. February Employment Numbers, Canada’s Performance Perkier
Monday, March 4th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
The table and maps accompanying this article feature comparisons of highway, street and roadwork construction starts in all the states, plus District of Columbia, in two ways: (1) by dollar-volume level, taking the annual average over the past two years (2017 and 2018); and (2) per capita (i.e., the dollar volume in (1) divided by each individual state’s population).
In some states, there can be considerable variation in the dollar volume of roadwork starts from one year to the next. Therefore, it seems only fair to smooth the series out a bit, and hence the reason for utilizing a latest-two-years average.
On the left-hand side of Table 1, there is a ranking of all states and D.C. according to their level of roadwork construction starts. Sixteen states have exceeded an annual average of $1.0 billion over the past two years and they are highlighted in Map 1. Washington state, at $995 million, and New Jersey, at $980 million, just missed the cut.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economist, Economy, market
Comments Off on Rankings of States and Provinces by Roadwork Construction Starts
Friday, January 25th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
U.S. Census Bureau workers are off the job due to Washington’s partial funding shutdown. As a result, current statistics on housing starts, retail purchases and foreign trade are not available.
This is no minor matter. It will be difficult to accurately calculate national output – i.e., the important gross domestic product (GDP) measure – without reliable data on many of its key components. GDP growth, or lack thereof, is one key determinant of Federal Reserve interest rate moves. The Fed will struggle over whether to be ‘hawkish’, ‘dovish’, or stick with neutral.
Furthermore, the ramifications of economic data omissions are not solely limited to the U.S.
The U.S. and China are engaged in a trade skirmish, with tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. slated to increase to 25% from 10% at the end of March, if there is no resolution. The U.S. has been running a huge trade deficit with China for years. In many months, it has been in a range of 40% to 50% of the total U.S. merchandise trade shortfall with all nations.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Economics, Economist, Economy, election, employ, employment, Growth, home, house, Housing, job, jobless, Labor, market, material, money, real estate, residential, shutdown, US
Comments Off on Ramifications of U.S. Shutdown Ripple outwards to China and Canada
Thursday, January 10th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
The dollar volume of ConstructConnect’s ‘grand total’ construction starts in full-year 2018 was -5.0% compared with full-year 2017. The percentage change for nonresidential work was -2.0%.
How significant were the largest project initiations in those overall percentage changes? Each month, to update clients on showcase project activity, ConstructConnect publishes a Top 10 groundbreakings list. The summation of the Top 10 projects for every month in 2018 (i.e., 120 projects in total) was $85.4 billion, +1.3% versus 2017’s comparable figure of $84.2 billion.
Many of 2018’s biggest project starts are set out in two accompanying infographics and tables. While there were other type-of-structure categories with multiple extra-large projects last year, six that stood out were: high-tech data and fulfilment centers; hotels and conference centers; bridges; manufacturing and distribution centers; medical facilities; and law enforcement.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Construction services, Economic, Economics, Economist, Economy, employ, Growth, Housing, job, jobless, Labor, market
Comments Off on U.S. 2018 Large Project Starts by Type of Structure – 2 Infographics
Friday, December 14th, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
The accompanying table records the top 10 project starts in the U.S. for November 2018.
There are several reasons for highlighting upcoming large projects. Such jobs have often received a fair amount of media coverage. Therefore, people in the industry are on the lookout for when jobsite work actually gets underway. And, as showcase projects, they highlight geographically where major construction projects are proceeding.
Also, total construction activity is comprised of many small and medium-sized projects and a limited number of large developments. But the largest projects, simply by their nature, can dramatically affect total dollar and square footage volumes. In other words, the timing and size of these projects have an exaggerated influence on market forecasts.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, Construction, Construction industry, Economic, Economy, Growth, US
Comments Off on Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – November 2018
Thursday, December 13th, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
ConstructConnect announced today that November’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $27.4 billion, the lowest level since February ($26.6 billion) of this year.
On a month-to-month basis, November’s nonresidential starts fell by nearly one-quarter (-22.6%). The usual seasonal pullback, due to harsher winter-onset weather, is in a range of -2% to -7%. November 2018 compared with November 2017 was -9.8%. November 2018 relative to the previous five-year average for November, − i.e., from 2013 through 2017, − was +0.9%.
Year-to-date starts in 2018 compared with January-to-November of 2017 have been -4.0%. There is only one month still to go, December, before 2018’s annual results will be tabulated.
The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they altered for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars.
View this information as an infographic.
‘Nonresidential building’ plus ‘engineering/civil’ work accounts for a larger share of total construction than residential activity. The former’s combined proportion of total put-in-place construction in the Census Bureau’s October report was 59%; the latter’s was 41%.
ConstructConnect’s construction starts are leading indicators for the Census Bureau’s capital investment or put-in-place series. Also, the reporting period for starts (i.e., November 2018) is one month ahead of the reporting period for the investment series (i.e., October 2018.)
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Tags: Alex Carrick, build, commercial, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economic, Economics, Economist, Economy, job, non-residential
Comments Off on Rough Patch for Nonresidential Starts in November, But YTD Decline Remained Modest
Friday, December 7th, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
There was a dramatic reversal in fortune on the jobs front between the U.S. and Canada in November.
It wasn’t that the U.S. number from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was so bad. At +155,000, it slowed from +237,000 the month before, but it was still a solid increase.
Rather, it was that Canada set a blistering pace. Statistics Canada’s figure of +94,000 jobs was the biggest monthly increase in more than six-and-a-half years, dating back to March 2012 (also +94,000).
Canada’s unemployment rate in November improved to 5.6%, the lowest it’s been in more than 40 years.
America’s unemployment rate stayed the same in November as in October, but keep in mind that the current level of 3.7% is the tightest in almost 50 years.
Canada may have had a better November than the U.S., but for year-to-date 2018, it’s been the latter that has been vastly outperforming the former.
U.S. monthly average jobs creation so far this year has been +206,000, +12.7% above last year’s comparable figure of +183,000.
Canada’s monthly average jobs bump to date in 2018 has been only +14,000, -58% versus January-November 2017’s climb of +33,000.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, Cannabis, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Economic, Economics, Economist, Economy, job, jobless, jobs, Labor, unemployment
Comments Off on November Jobs Creation: U.S. +155,000; Canada +94,000
Friday, November 2nd, 2018
According to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the total number of jobs in the U.S. in October rose by 250,000, an outstanding gain.
Because the participation increased slightly, from 62.7% in September to 62.9% in October (i.e., more people re-entered the work force), the unemployment rate stayed the same as the month before, at 3.7%.
What’s important to remember, though, is that a 3.7% American jobless figure is a 50-year low.
According to the latest Labour Force Survey results published by Statistics Canada, total employment north of the border in October bobbed up by a relatively anemic 11,000 jobs.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economic, Economist, Economy, employ, employment, Growth, job, jobs, market
Comments Off on Big October U.S. Jobs Gain Has Fed Interest Rate Implications; Meanwhile, Canada Quiet on the Jobs Front
Friday, September 21st, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
The Trump Administration in Washington has recently imposed $200 billion in tariffs on imports from China. Included in those new duty assessments are auto parts.
This action, along with another key development in Mexico, has introduced a strange twist into the dynamics of where, in North America, motor vehicle assemblers may wish to carry out future capital spending.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Auto Sector, Canada, ConstructConnect, Economic, Economist, Economy, Growth
Comments Off on With U.S. Tariffs on Chinese ‘Parts’, Advantage Goes to Canada in Auto Sector Investments
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