Posts Tagged ‘election’
Friday, January 25th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
U.S. Census Bureau workers are off the job due to Washington’s partial funding shutdown. As a result, current statistics on housing starts, retail purchases and foreign trade are not available.
This is no minor matter. It will be difficult to accurately calculate national output – i.e., the important gross domestic product (GDP) measure – without reliable data on many of its key components. GDP growth, or lack thereof, is one key determinant of Federal Reserve interest rate moves. The Fed will struggle over whether to be ‘hawkish’, ‘dovish’, or stick with neutral.
Furthermore, the ramifications of economic data omissions are not solely limited to the U.S.
The U.S. and China are engaged in a trade skirmish, with tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. slated to increase to 25% from 10% at the end of March, if there is no resolution. The U.S. has been running a huge trade deficit with China for years. In many months, it has been in a range of 40% to 50% of the total U.S. merchandise trade shortfall with all nations.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Economics, Economist, Economy, election, employ, employment, Growth, home, house, Housing, job, jobless, Labor, market, material, money, real estate, residential, shutdown, US
Comments Off on Ramifications of U.S. Shutdown Ripple outwards to China and Canada
Tuesday, April 3rd, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
This article provides a ranking of America’s Top Dozen States according to their goods export volumes in full year 2017.
Total U.S. goods exports last year amounted to almost one-and-a-half trillion dollars.
The background foreign trade data comes from the Census Bureau’s web-based site entitled USA Trade Online. While it’s relatively easy to open a free account, if one is not familiar with ‘pivot tables’, there is a bit of a learning curve to access the statistics.
The type-of-product designations follow the definitions in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
(1) Texas:
Texas, with export shipments of $264.1 billion and a 17.9% share of the nation’s total, was the leader among U.S. states for foreign sales in 2017. The NAICS category at the top of the Lone Star State’s exports list was ‘computer and electronic products’ ($47.0 billion), but close behind were ‘petroleum and coal products’ ($44.0 billion), ‘chemicals’ ($40.0 billion) and ‘oil and gas’ ($32.0). ‘Chemicals’ exports were dominated by synthetic rubber.
While Texas has a high level of computer-product exports, it would be more accurate to say that the State is especially strong in energy-product export sales. Energy products as a catch-all would combine refined petroleum (e.g., gasoline), chemicals, crude oil and natural gas for more than $100 billion.
In 2017, there were substantial increases in oil exports from Texas to China, Canada and South Korea. Other major customers for Texas crude last year were Mexico and Brazil.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, Economic, Economics, Economist, Economy, election, employ, Housing, interest rate, Labor, market, material, money
Comments Off on Ranking and Reviewing America’s Top Dozen Exporting States
Tuesday, March 27th, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
The historical records of Canada’s put-in-place capital spending numbers for residential, commercial, industrial, institutional and engineering construction are to be found in Statistics Canada’s on-line Cansim Tables 026-0013, 026-0016 and 029-0045.
Whereas construction ‘starts’ numbers are lump-sum figures entered at the time of groundbreaking, the ‘put-in-place’ data series are meant to mirror progress payments as projects proceed.
The history i n those previously mentioned Cansim Tables, however, currently stops at 2017. But there is another source for 2018 estimates – the non-residential Capital and Repair Expenditures (CARE) survey.
There’s a problem, though. The 2018 data from CARE is set out according to capital spending by industrial sectors. These is no re-arrangement of those amounts according to the five type-of-structure categories.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, Canada, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Economic, Economics, election, Growth, market, US
Comments Off on Spring 2018 Put-in-place Construction Forecasts for Canada
Tuesday, March 13th, 2018
The three maps in this infographic focus attention on the 2017-over-2016 percentage changes in homebuilding activity in America’s states. The Census Bureau does not publish home starts statistics at the state level, but it does compile and release residential permits numbers.
Therefore, the shadings in the maps are based on permits data (in units). The words ‘permits’ and ‘starts’ will be used interchangeably in the following commentary.
The total number of new home permits in the U.S. in 2017 was +6% compared with 2016. As the ‘legend-key’ sets out, individual states with percentage increases over +6% are shaded in green − for warmth.
As the shading moves from lighter green to darker green, the percentage increases move higher.
States shaded in blue − for chillier − had year-over-year increases that were +6% or less. The darkest shades of blue are reserved for states where there were significant 2017-over-2016 declines.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economist, Economy, election, employ, employment, job, jobless, jobs, market
Comments Off on 3 Maps Showing 2017 versus 2016 Housing Starts in American States
Wednesday, May 4th, 2016
Article source: CMDGroup
I’m writing this article on May 1, but it’s not an April Fools’ joke. Sure, there have been other times in world history, during war or plague, when turmoil has been so intense as to test, to the limits and beyond, the fortitude of mankind and womankind.
Still, I’m not sure humanity has ever before been on the cusp of so many changes that are already, or are on the verge of, shaking up the ways in which we live and interact with one another; and govern our economic and social affairs; and inspire dreams about really and truly astonishing futures.
The notion for writing this article first came to mind on account of six or so major trends that I’m always mulling over when I write about the economy and the construction sector. Upon deeper reflection, the number of discernible seismic shifts quickly expanded to a dozen.
There may well be more. Feel free to contact me if you believe I’ve failed to mention something equally or more important.
The following 12 sections have also been inspired by the question I’m always asking myself and which I know is of prime concern to you as well. What will be the implications for the construction sector?
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, Economy, election, employment, job, market, oil, US
Comments Off on By No Means is it the Same Old World (Part 1)
Friday, April 15th, 2016
Article source: CMDGroup
It may just be the calm before another storm, but the economic news seems to have quietened down quite a bit over the last little while. As for the political news, as both the Democrats and Republicans race towards their leadership conventions in a few months, that’s another story.
The pain in the oil sector on account of the deeply depressed price of crude is finally leading to some self-correcting courses of action. In the U.S. and Canada, capital spending plans have been slashed and production levels in the fracking sector significantly reduced. Internationally, Iran isn’t expected to ramp up export sales as quickly as once thought. And other OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, appear intent on re-imposing a degree of control over their output levels.
The global price of oil may have found a floor near $40 USD per barrel. That’s a lot better than when it was nosediving towards $20. Furthermore, it will still provide car drivers, when they fill up, with gasoline charges that are pleasing bargains. Freeing up money so that it can be spent in other areas will prove especially important as the summer vacation season quickly arrives.
Against this backdrop, there are the following additional ‘nuggets’ to be gleaned from the latest government agency and private sector data releases. The ‘soil’ is rich and the ‘crop’ abundant.
(1) Let’s begin with CMD’s own construction starts statistics. Perhaps the most informative way to look at the numbers is to compare the year so far (i.e., through the first quarter, 2016) with the same time frame in 2015. On such a basis, grand total starts, in ‘current’ (i.e., not adjusted for inflation) dollars, were +7.4%, with major type-of-structure sub-categories performing as follows: residential, +3.7%; non-residential building, +11.8%; and heavy engineering, +5.8%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, auto, CMD, CMDGroup, Democrats, Economic, election, equipment, job, market, race, Republicans, retailer, sales, US, vote
Comments Off on A Dozen Mid-April Economic Nuggets
Thursday, March 3rd, 2016
Article source: CMDGroup
Okay, I admit it, I’m flummoxed.
I’m supposed to be writing about the economy, but how can I stay focused in the midst of a U.S. presidential election campaign.
Voting day may still be eight months away, in November, but there are distractions galore in the surround-sound coverage of the primaries and caucuses.
The economy has become a side-show event compared with what is going on in the electoral center ring.
Over the past decade-plus, the differences between the Democrats and Republicans have become deeper and more firmly entrenched.
Positions on the left and right have turned inflexible. Celebrity commentators in the media have played roles in marshalling legions of strident supporters.
Policy stances have proven intractable, yielding gridlock in Washington.
The crop that’s now being harvested is a disdain for politics as normally practiced.
Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton has been hard pressed to establish a lead over her rival, Bernie Sanders, a man who doesn’t hesitate to label himself a socialist.
On the Republican side, the candidacy of Donald Trump was supposed to peter out by last September, according to almost all the pundits.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, CMD, CMDGroup, Economy, election, Hillary, market, money, presidential, stock, Trump, US, vote
Comments Off on That’s Not How Things are Usually Done
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