Posts Tagged ‘employment’
Monday, November 6th, 2023
Article source: ConstructConnect
The latest Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics speaks of a +150,000 gain in the total number of U.S. jobs in October. That figure on its own is ho-hum. It is the second lowest monthly increase since pandemic days. (June of this year was weaker at +105,000).
The gain of +150,000 overstates the buoyancy. Versus the total jobs count of 156.874 million reported for September a month ago, October’s figure of 156.923 million was ahead by only +49,000 jobs. In the October report, September was revised down by -101,000 jobs.
The net result is that U.S. hiring is now as close to being flat as it has been in nearly three years.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, ConstructConnect, Construction, Economy, employ, employment, Growth, interest rate, recovery
Comments Off on Flattening Prospects in U.S. and Canadian Jobs Markets in October
Tuesday, September 5th, 2023
Article source: ConstructConnect
The U.S. economy grew by +2.0% in the first quarter of this year and by +2.4% in the second quarter. Those figures are the month-to-month annualized percentage changes of ‘real’ (i.e., inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) dollars.
One should not, however, grow comfortable with the thought that all is well, and a slowdown or recession has been averted.
A key component of GDP is consumer spending, which is almost half comprised of retail sales. While total retail sales are not in deep distress, they are certainly not as buoyant as they were a year or so ago.
In fact, total current dollar retail sales have been flat for a year and a half (see Graph 1). On a year-over-year basis in the latest reported month, July 2023, they were +2.0%. With inflation still running over +3.0% y/y, the difference means ‘real’ total retail sales were slightly negative.
There is a wrinkle in this narrative. Total retail sales are being substantially suppressed by the weakness of receipts at gasoline stations, -20.8% y/y. Again, there is an inflation twist. The steep slide in petrol sales ties directly to a -19.9% y/y change in the price of gasoline, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economic, Economist, employment, Growth, Housing, interest rate, lumber, material, recovery, steel, tenders
Comments Off on With Construction Not Immune, Retail Sales Speak of Slowdown
Friday, September 3rd, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
August’s Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) says that the total number of jobs in the U.S. economy rose by +235,000 in the latest month. A gain of nearly a quarter of a million jobs may sound like a lot, but in the grand scheme of things, it’s rather tame.
Compare it with the month prior’s performance. July was originally reported at +943,000 jobs. That figure has now been revised higher to +1.053 million.
Job creation in August became bogged down. It was probably due to the coronavirus making a comeback, by way of the Delta variant, and threatening a fourth wave heading into the Fall.
The best illustration of how hiring tapped out in August can be found in the ‘leisure and hospitality’ sector. The economy-wide staffing change with bars and restaurants and hotels/motels in the latest month was zero.
Nevertheless, it’s encouraging to note that the year over year change in ‘leisure and hospitality’ employment is a strong +17.4%.
Total employment is now +4.3% y/y; construction employment is +2.7%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economist, Economy, employ, employment, jobless, jobs, Labor, market
Comments Off on Little Meat on the Bones of the August U.S. Jobs Report
Thursday, July 15th, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
A Compelling Megaproject Story
ConstructConnect announced today that June 2021’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $38.4 billion (green shaded box, Table 8 below), an increase of +14.4% vs May 2021’s $33.6 billion (originally reported as $32.5 billion).
Compared with June 2020, the latest month’s dollar volume of total nonresidential starts was -4.3%. On a year-to-date basis (i.e., Jan-Jun 2021/Jan-Jun 2020), total nonresidential starts have been -10.9%.
View this information as an infographic
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economic, Economist, Economy, employ, employment, Housing, interest rate, job, lumber, shareknowledge, steel, US
Comments Off on June’s Nonresidential Construction Starts +14% M/M, But -11% YTD
Tuesday, July 6th, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
This article consists of seven cluster charts of four graphs each, showing monthly employment levels over the past 20-plus years in 28 sub-sectors of the U.S. economy.
In every sub-sector, there were pandemic-related downturns in jobs counts in the Spring of last year. Nevertheless, it’s easy to see where jobs growth is on a long-term upward path, not to be deterred by a temporary setback.
On the flip side, there are industries where jobs prospects are clearly flagging.
The types of jobs covered are based in: resources; manufacturing; logistics and environmental; desk work (i.e., office-based); institutional (schools and hospitals) and real estate; accommodation, hospitality and entertainment; and ‘new wave’ (security services, couriers, pharma and software publishing).
There are text boxes accompanying each cluster which set out the highlights from the four workplaces featured. But there are some further observations to be made.
In the ‘Resources’ cluster, none of the four sub-sectors is showing a trend towards long-term jobs growth. Rather, the opposite appears to be the case.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economy, employment, Growth, Hospitality & Entertainment, Institutional, job, jobless, jobs, Logistics & Environmental, manufacturing, market, New Wave, Office-based
Comments Off on Exiting the Pandemic, Where the Jobs Are
Friday, June 4th, 2021
Big Grin Greets Big Pickup in Youth Employment
In any pre-pandemic month, May’s U.S. total jobs count gain of +559,000 would have registered as outstanding. And I don’t want to belittle the achievement, especially since it soundly beats the previous month’s figure of +278,000.
But as can be seen from Graph 1, even a swing of plus more than half a million appears as only a blip in the context of the month-to-month movements over the past year and a quarter.
The seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate in May improved to 5.8% from 6.1% in April. The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) unemployment rate downshifted to 5.5% from 5.7% the month previously.
Young people are finding employment once again. The SA unemployment rate for individuals aged 16 to 19 brightened to 9.5%. And yes, ‘brightened to 9.5%’ is appropriate wording given that a year ago the SA unemployment rate for those just under aged 20 was 30.7%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economic, Economist, Economy, employment, Growth, job, jobless, jobs, Labor, market
Comments Off on U.S. Half Million Jobs Increase in May still only Drop in Bucket
Wednesday, May 19th, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
In this, the latest mid-month Nuggets report, I’ll focus on three major and interlocking (or interdependent) economic indicators: retail sales, inflation and housing starts.
Retail Sales
My world of economic analysis is being rocked in unprecedented fashion. Maybe ‘shattered’ is the better word.
For example, I’m used to studying year-over-year percentage changes to gain an understanding of what is going on in certain segments of the economy. Retail sales is a perfect example. In current dollar terms (i.e., not adjusted for inflation), they used to range from flat as a lower boundary to maybe +7% y/y as an upper limit.
When the coronavirus first struck in the Spring of last year, retail sales plummeted, yielding double-digit percentage-change drops for ‘total’ and many shopkeeper sub-categories. Now, a year later, the rebound that’s underway is being vastly exaggerated by the comparison with 2020’s deeply distressed results. Looking at April 2021/April 2020, we’re dealing with ‘funhouse’ numbers on the upside.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economist, Economy, employment, Growth, Housing, inflation, job, jobs, Labor, retail
Comments Off on Mid-May Economic Nuggets Report with Focus on Retail Sales, Inflation and Housing Starts
Friday, May 8th, 2020
Article source: ConstructConnect
ConstructConnect, in its latest (Summer) quarterly construction starts forecast, is projecting -27.4% for 2020/2019 grand total dollars and -24.6% for square footage.
Why the big drop?
By the way, ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) GDP is likely to be something like -6% (annual/annual) and that is a big decline. The Q/Q change annualized in Q2 will be something like -25% to -30%.
Put-in-place construction spend numbers are much smoother than starts. They include a large percentage of work that is carried over from last year, so they’re not relevant for assessing what is occurring today. The put-in-place total, 2020/2019, will be on the order of -6% to -8%.
Now we come to construction starts. As background, in the last recession (2008-2009), the cumulative decline in ConstructConnect’s total starts through both years was greater than -30%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economist, Economy, employment
Comments Off on Why ConstructConnect is Forecasting a One-quarter Decline in U.S. Construction Starts This Year
Thursday, April 16th, 2020
Article source: ConstructConnect
- A forewarning for the U.S. in Canada’s March Labor Market Numbers
- 5 Shocking Declines in Shopkeeper Sales, But 1 Good News Story
- Canadian Part-time Work Evaporates
- A Drop in Oil Demand that will Muddy the Waters for OPEC
- S. Initial Jobless Claims Climb to 22 Million in 4 Weeks
The times are turbulent. There’s no point in dilly-dallying. Let’s jump right in with an examination of the latest data releases from public and private sector sources.
5 Shocking Declines in Shopkeeper Sales, But 1 Good News Story
March’s U.S. Advance Monthly Sales of Retail and Food Services report sets out some big month-to-month percentage changes. Most, but not all, were on the downside.
Five sub-categories experienced declines from February to March of more than one-fifth. Performing worst was the category ‘clothing and clothing accessory stores’, -50.5%. The four others with severe sales contractions were: ‘furniture and home furnishing stores’, -26.8%; ‘food services and drinking places’, -26.5%; ‘motor vehicle and parts dealers’, -25.6%; and ‘sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores’, -23.3%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, Canada, ConstructConnect, Construction, Economic, Economist, Economy, employment, material, recovery
Comments Off on 5 Mid-April Economic Nuggets
Wednesday, February 19th, 2020
Article source: ConstructConnect
There are certainly hints that the coronavirus outbreak could be the ‘Black Swan’ that will bring the decade-long period of U.S. economic expansion to an end. Are the statistics being reported out of China accurate? How virulent is the disease? Can it realistically be contained within limited geographic regions?
 Suspensions of airline routes, postponements of travel plans, and overseas cancellations of high-profile sporting events, as well as an underlying shift in peoples’ appetite for dining out, cruising their local mall, or gathering in a public space do not bode well for the next while at least, or until more clarity has been achieved concerning COVID-19’s damaging effects.
Nevertheless, the latest weeks have featured a particularly active generation of private sector and government agency data releases concerning the economy. Some of the best ‘nuggets’ are summarized below.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, China, ConstructConnect, Deficit, Economy, employ, employment, Energy Sector, home, house, Housing, interest rate, jobless, manufacturing, oil imports
Comments Off on 9 Mid-February Economic Nuggets
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