Posts Tagged ‘Growth’
Thursday, July 18th, 2019
Chinese Economic Slowdown
China’s latest quarter-over-quarter ‘real’ (i.e., after adjustment for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate was its slowest since 1992. 2019’s second quarter advance, annualized, was only +6.2%. That level of increase anywhere else in the world would be greeted with celebration, but for China, it’s a relative crawl. While the +10% to +12% gains of the mid-00s have become a thing of the past, +7% or more has still been commonplace in the Middle Kingdom of late. The Chinese economy would greatly benefit from an end to its trade dispute with the U.S. which has seen sales to American consumers significantly curtailed by tariffs.
Meanwhile U.S. Economy Roars
At least with respect to employment, the U.S. economy continues to roar. One of the best indicators of the strength in the jobs market is the ‘weekly initial jobless claims’ data series. It measures first-time applications for unemployment insurance. The figure soars when the economy sinks. As Graph 1 shows, initial jobless claims in the middle of the 2008-2009 recession skyrocketed to 665,000. But they have now been less than 300,000 – i.e., the benchmark usually adopted to denote a solid jobs recovery – for 226 weeks in a row (i.e., more than four years). They even dropped below 200,000 twice in April of this year.
The length of time from high to low in the initial jobless claims curve has been 10 years, exactly corresponding with the duration of the current upbeat economic cycle. When searching for an early warning sign that the economy is faltering, be wary of initial jobless claims rising back to 300,000.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, China, ConstructConnect, Economic, Economist, employment, Growth, Housing, market, material, money
Comments Off on 7 Mid-July Economic Nuggets, With Emphasis on Jobs Markets
Friday, July 5th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
Strong U.S. Jobs Growth has Interest Rate Implications
The U.S. total number of jobs in June shot up by +224,000, according to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). A slight rise in the ‘participation rate’, to 62.9% from 62.8% in May, caused June’s unemployment rate to climb a notch, from 3.6% to 3.7%. A 3.7% level of unemployment is still remarkably tight.
Everyone’s keeping a close eye out for signs of a weakening U.S. economy that would warrant an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Graph 1). They won’t find justification for such a move in June’s jobs numbers. May’s lackluster +75,000 addition had pointed to trouble possibly brewing, but that’s become old news. It’s been superseded by fresh buoyancy.
It should be pointed out, however, that the jobs performances in some sectors have taken an interesting turn of late. This will be examined in the next section.
Worth noting, also, is that despite June’s strength, average monthly job creation in the U.S. so far in 2019 has been +172,000. With half a year having already sped by, +172,000 is a decline of more than a quarter (-26.8%) compared with January-to-June 2018’s average of +235,000.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Construction services, Economist, Economy, employment, Growth, jobless, jobs
Comments Off on June Jobs Reports: U.S. Bounces Back; Canada Weak M/M but Strong Ytd
Monday, May 13th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
Total U.S. put-in-place construction spending, after increasing steadily (although slowly) for seven years, from 2011 through 2017, has lost upwards momentum over the past year and a bit. The cause of the overall weakness has been a retreating residential sector. Nonresidential has continued to exhibit a decent degree of uplift.
For various type-of-structure categories of construction, the charts in this article showcase three data sets – (1) seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly ‘current’ dollar volume levels (where ‘current’ means not adjusted for inflation); (2) month-to-month percent changes in the dollar volume; and (3) year-over-year percent changes in the dollar volume.
As shown in Graph 1 below, total spending on U.S. construction reached its zenith in May of last year, at $1.324 trillion. Since that peak, it has fallen by 3.2%, to land at $1.282 trillion in the latest month for which data is available, March 2019.
The average of month-to-month percent changes for total U.S. put-in-place construction spending during the past ten years has been +0.4%. In March 2019, the month-over-month figure was in negative territory, at -0.9%.
Over the past 10 years, the average of year-over-year percent changes recorded each month for total put-in-place construction has been +4.2%. In March 2019, the year-over-year change was -0.8%.
The ‘glory days’ for U.S. put-in-place construction have, for the moment at least, receded.
Total put-in-place construction was doing its best between 2012 and early 2017, when the y/y percent change curve was consistently above the 10-year average line, as seen in the lower portion of Graph 1. Recently, U.S. put-in-place construction has fallen off its earlier faster pace.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, CMDGroup, Construction industry, Economic, employment, Growth, highway, home, hotel, manufacturing, Motel, residential, street
Comments Off on U.S. Put-in-place Construction Spending Hits a Soft Spot
Friday, March 8th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
February’s Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered the kind of U.S. total employment change, month to month, that we have become unaccustomed to seeing. Net jobs growth was quite weak, at only +20,000. It’s been 17 months since the figure was comparably low, +18,000 in September 2017.
Over the last several years, the month-to-month jobs gain has usually been at least +175,000, often exceeding +200,000. In the first month of this year, January, it was +311,000.
On the brighter side, the unemployment rate in the latest month improved to 3.8% from 4.0% in the prior period.
There was only one major industrial sector with a substantial pick-up in nominal number of jobs in January, ‘professional and business services,’ +42,000. The staffing increases were evenly and widely spread among segments of the sector (e.g., accounting, design, computer, and help-wanted services).
‘Education and health services’ added just 4,000 jobs, but that was because education services declined by -19,000 jobs. ‘Health care and social assistance’ wasn’t shy about hiring, lifting its combined payroll by +23,000.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, construct, Economy, employment, Growth, job, jobless, jobs, Labor, market
Comments Off on A Chill in U.S. February Employment Numbers, Canada’s Performance Perkier
Wednesday, February 27th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
Early in February, there should have been the release of December 2018 foreign trade statistics for both the U.S. and Canada. The publication schedule has been thrown off track, however, by the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, which kept Census Bureau workers off the job.
Since three-quarters of Canadian exports are shipped to the U.S. and two-thirds of Canadian imports are drawn from the U.S., Statistics Canada felt it could not publish accurate numbers either. Therefore, the latest statistics available for study, both south and north of the border, are for November. A statement has been issued that the target date for dissemination of December findings is March 6th.
Nevertheless, there is much to be learned from the material that is at hand. The bottom line is that there has been minimal progress lately in fixing significant U.S. and Canadian foreign trade difficulties.
Graphs 1 and 2 tell the story. Canada’s trade deficit (annualized) in November was -$25 billion CAD; America’s was a massive -$592 billion USD.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, ConstructConnect, employment, Foreign Trade, Growth, home
Comments Off on Minimal Progress in Fixing U.S. and Canadian Foreign Trade Difficulties
Friday, February 22nd, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
This article is the seventh, or final one, in a series of seven that examines key industrial sectors to determine where they are most significant regionally. Rankings of state strength in each industrial sub-sector are based on both ‘weight’ and ‘concentration’ of relevant employment.
‘Weight’ is simply the number of jobs in the industrial sub-sector in each state. ‘Concentration’ is each state’s number of jobs in the sub-sector divided by the state’s population. In effect, it’s a ‘per capita’ figure, except that it’s expressed as number of jobs per million population.
By ‘weight’, the states with the largest populations are almost always high in the rankings. The rankings by ‘concentration’, however, often expose some unexpected winners.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Economic, Economics, Growth, home, Housing, interest rate, job, money
Comments Off on Series (7 of 7): Rankings of States by Industrial Sub-Sector Jobs – Construction
Wednesday, February 6th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
There are 51 metropolitan statistical areas (CMAs) in the United States with population levels above one million. Drawing from ConstructConnect’s data pool for those 51 cities, Table 1 ranks the Top 25 markets in America for educational facility construction starts last year. (Map 1 showcases the Top 20.)
| Educational Facility Construction Starts |
| Top 25 Markets among Biggest U.S. Cities* |
| 2018 |
| Rank by |
|
|
|
|
|
| 2018 |
|
2017 |
2018 |
|
% Change |
| $ Value |
City / MSA |
($billions) |
|
2018/2017 |
| 1 |
New York, NY-NJ |
$3.290 |
$3.367 |
|
2.3% |
| 2 |
Dallas-Ft Worth, TX |
$2.355 |
$3.100 |
|
31.7% |
| 3 |
Los Angeles, CA |
$2.416 |
$2.626 |
|
8.7% |
| 4 |
Houston, TX |
$2.778 |
$2.592 |
|
-6.7% |
| 5 |
Seattle-Tacoma, WA |
$1.970 |
$1.560 |
|
-20.8% |
| 6 |
Chicago, IL |
$1.188 |
$1.219 |
|
2.6% |
| 7 |
Boston, MA |
$2.023 |
$1.217 |
|
-39.8% |
| 8 |
San Francisco – Oakland, CA |
$1.014 |
$1.145 |
|
13.0% |
| 9 |
Portland, OR-WA |
$0.370 |
$1.117 |
|
201.8% |
| 10 |
Philadelphia, PA |
$0.790 |
$1.090 |
|
38.0% |
| 11 |
Atlanta, GA |
$0.807 |
$0.991 |
|
22.8% |
| 12 |
Washington, DC – VA – MD – WV |
$1.279 |
$0.966 |
|
-24.5% |
| 13 |
San Diego, CA |
$0.543 |
$0.907 |
|
67.2% |
| 14 |
Baltimore, MD |
$0.917 |
$0.866 |
|
-5.6% |
| 15 |
Sacramento, CA |
$0.291 |
$0.852 |
|
193.0% |
| 16 |
Austin, TX |
$0.961 |
$0.762 |
|
-20.7% |
| 17 |
San Antonio, TX |
$1.142 |
$0.735 |
|
-35.6% |
| 18 |
Las Vegas, NV |
$0.286 |
$0.654 |
|
128.7% |
| 19 |
Orlando, FL |
$0.640 |
$0.613 |
|
-4.1% |
| 20 |
Salt Lake City, UT |
$0.660 |
$0.609 |
|
-7.7% |
| 21 |
Cleveland, OH |
$0.369 |
$0.586 |
|
59.0% |
| 22 |
Raleigh, NC |
$0.372 |
$0.574 |
|
54.3% |
| 23 |
Denver, CO |
$0.422 |
$0.573 |
|
35.8% |
| 24 |
Minneapolis – St Paul, MN – WI |
$0.843 |
$0.561 |
|
-33.4% |
| 25 |
Providence, RI-MA |
$0.306 |
$0.551 |
|
80.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| *There are 51 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the U.S. with populations exceeding onemillion. |
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|
|
|
| Data source and table: ConstructConnect ‘Insight’. |
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Economic, Economist, Growth, house, Housing, market, material, US
Comments Off on Top 25 U.S. Cities for School Construction Starts
Friday, January 25th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
U.S. Census Bureau workers are off the job due to Washington’s partial funding shutdown. As a result, current statistics on housing starts, retail purchases and foreign trade are not available.
This is no minor matter. It will be difficult to accurately calculate national output – i.e., the important gross domestic product (GDP) measure – without reliable data on many of its key components. GDP growth, or lack thereof, is one key determinant of Federal Reserve interest rate moves. The Fed will struggle over whether to be ‘hawkish’, ‘dovish’, or stick with neutral.
Furthermore, the ramifications of economic data omissions are not solely limited to the U.S.
The U.S. and China are engaged in a trade skirmish, with tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. slated to increase to 25% from 10% at the end of March, if there is no resolution. The U.S. has been running a huge trade deficit with China for years. In many months, it has been in a range of 40% to 50% of the total U.S. merchandise trade shortfall with all nations.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Economics, Economist, Economy, election, employ, employment, Growth, home, house, Housing, job, jobless, Labor, market, material, money, real estate, residential, shutdown, US
Comments Off on Ramifications of U.S. Shutdown Ripple outwards to China and Canada
Thursday, January 24th, 2019
Construction spending in various type-of structure categories is driven by economic circumstances within specific industrial subsectors. For example, manufacturers set the pace in industrial construction.
 Good health in the leisure and hospitality sector provides the backing for new hotel and motel work. And jobs levels in information and financial services, as well as in more rapidly expanding fields of endeavor such as computer systems and design services, establish the need for additional office space and commercial tower square footage. (See, “Shifts in Office Jobs and Implications for Commercial Tower Construction.”)
This article is the fifth in a series of seven that examines key industrial sectors to determine where they are most prominent regionally. Rankings of state strength in each industrial subsector are based on both ‘weight’ and ‘concentration’ of relevant employment. ‘Weight’ is simply the number of jobs in the industrial subsector in each state. ‘Concentration’ is each state’s number of jobs in the subsector divided by the state’s population. In effect, it’s a ‘per capita’ figure, except that it’s expressed as number of jobs per million population.
By ‘weight,’ the states with the largest populations are almost always high in the rankings. The rankings by ‘concentration,’ however, often deliver a jolt of surprise or two.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, employ, employment, Growth, job, jobs
Comments Off on Series (5 of 7): Rankings of States by Industrial Subsector Jobs – Computer Systems Design
Friday, January 18th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
Construction spending in various type-of structure categories is driven by economic circumstances within specific industrial subsectors. For example, manufacturers set the pace in industrial construction.
Good health in the leisure and hospitality sector provides the backing for new hotel and motel work. And jobs levels in information and financial services, as well as in more rapidly expanding fields of endeavor such as computer systems and design services, establish the need for additional office space and commercial tower square footage. (See, “Shifts in Office Jobs and Implications for Commercial Tower Construction.”)
This article is the second in a series of seven that examines key industrial sectors to determine where they are most prominent regionally. Rankings of state strength in each industrial subsector are based on both ‘weight’ and ‘concentration’ of relevant employment. ‘Weight’ is simply the number of jobs in the industrial subsector in each state. ‘Concentration’ is each state’s number of jobs in the subsector divided by the state’s population. In effect, it’s a ‘per capita’ figure, except that it’s expressed as number of jobs per million population.
By ‘weight’, the states with the largest populations are almost always high in the rankings. The rankings by ‘concentration’, however, often deliver a jolt of surprise or two.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Construction services, Economic, Economist, employment, Growth, information sector, market, software
Comments Off on Series (3 of 7): Rankings of States by Industrial Subsector Jobs – Information Services
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