Posts Tagged ‘home’
Wednesday, February 19th, 2020
Article source: ConstructConnect
There are certainly hints that the coronavirus outbreak could be the ‘Black Swan’ that will bring the decade-long period of U.S. economic expansion to an end. Are the statistics being reported out of China accurate? How virulent is the disease? Can it realistically be contained within limited geographic regions?
 Suspensions of airline routes, postponements of travel plans, and overseas cancellations of high-profile sporting events, as well as an underlying shift in peoples’ appetite for dining out, cruising their local mall, or gathering in a public space do not bode well for the next while at least, or until more clarity has been achieved concerning COVID-19’s damaging effects.
Nevertheless, the latest weeks have featured a particularly active generation of private sector and government agency data releases concerning the economy. Some of the best ‘nuggets’ are summarized below.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, China, ConstructConnect, Deficit, Economy, employ, employment, Energy Sector, home, house, Housing, interest rate, jobless, manufacturing, oil imports
Comments Off on 9 Mid-February Economic Nuggets
Monday, May 13th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
Total U.S. put-in-place construction spending, after increasing steadily (although slowly) for seven years, from 2011 through 2017, has lost upwards momentum over the past year and a bit. The cause of the overall weakness has been a retreating residential sector. Nonresidential has continued to exhibit a decent degree of uplift.
For various type-of-structure categories of construction, the charts in this article showcase three data sets – (1) seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly ‘current’ dollar volume levels (where ‘current’ means not adjusted for inflation); (2) month-to-month percent changes in the dollar volume; and (3) year-over-year percent changes in the dollar volume.
As shown in Graph 1 below, total spending on U.S. construction reached its zenith in May of last year, at $1.324 trillion. Since that peak, it has fallen by 3.2%, to land at $1.282 trillion in the latest month for which data is available, March 2019.
The average of month-to-month percent changes for total U.S. put-in-place construction spending during the past ten years has been +0.4%. In March 2019, the month-over-month figure was in negative territory, at -0.9%.
Over the past 10 years, the average of year-over-year percent changes recorded each month for total put-in-place construction has been +4.2%. In March 2019, the year-over-year change was -0.8%.
The ‘glory days’ for U.S. put-in-place construction have, for the moment at least, receded.
Total put-in-place construction was doing its best between 2012 and early 2017, when the y/y percent change curve was consistently above the 10-year average line, as seen in the lower portion of Graph 1. Recently, U.S. put-in-place construction has fallen off its earlier faster pace.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, CMDGroup, Construction industry, Economic, employment, Growth, highway, home, hotel, manufacturing, Motel, residential, street
Comments Off on U.S. Put-in-place Construction Spending Hits a Soft Spot
Wednesday, February 27th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
Early in February, there should have been the release of December 2018 foreign trade statistics for both the U.S. and Canada. The publication schedule has been thrown off track, however, by the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, which kept Census Bureau workers off the job.
Since three-quarters of Canadian exports are shipped to the U.S. and two-thirds of Canadian imports are drawn from the U.S., Statistics Canada felt it could not publish accurate numbers either. Therefore, the latest statistics available for study, both south and north of the border, are for November. A statement has been issued that the target date for dissemination of December findings is March 6th.
Nevertheless, there is much to be learned from the material that is at hand. The bottom line is that there has been minimal progress lately in fixing significant U.S. and Canadian foreign trade difficulties.
Graphs 1 and 2 tell the story. Canada’s trade deficit (annualized) in November was -$25 billion CAD; America’s was a massive -$592 billion USD.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, ConstructConnect, employment, Foreign Trade, Growth, home
Comments Off on Minimal Progress in Fixing U.S. and Canadian Foreign Trade Difficulties
Friday, February 22nd, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
This article is the seventh, or final one, in a series of seven that examines key industrial sectors to determine where they are most significant regionally. Rankings of state strength in each industrial sub-sector are based on both ‘weight’ and ‘concentration’ of relevant employment.
‘Weight’ is simply the number of jobs in the industrial sub-sector in each state. ‘Concentration’ is each state’s number of jobs in the sub-sector divided by the state’s population. In effect, it’s a ‘per capita’ figure, except that it’s expressed as number of jobs per million population.
By ‘weight’, the states with the largest populations are almost always high in the rankings. The rankings by ‘concentration’, however, often expose some unexpected winners.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Economic, Economics, Growth, home, Housing, interest rate, job, money
Comments Off on Series (7 of 7): Rankings of States by Industrial Sub-Sector Jobs – Construction
Friday, January 25th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
U.S. Census Bureau workers are off the job due to Washington’s partial funding shutdown. As a result, current statistics on housing starts, retail purchases and foreign trade are not available.
This is no minor matter. It will be difficult to accurately calculate national output – i.e., the important gross domestic product (GDP) measure – without reliable data on many of its key components. GDP growth, or lack thereof, is one key determinant of Federal Reserve interest rate moves. The Fed will struggle over whether to be ‘hawkish’, ‘dovish’, or stick with neutral.
Furthermore, the ramifications of economic data omissions are not solely limited to the U.S.
The U.S. and China are engaged in a trade skirmish, with tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. slated to increase to 25% from 10% at the end of March, if there is no resolution. The U.S. has been running a huge trade deficit with China for years. In many months, it has been in a range of 40% to 50% of the total U.S. merchandise trade shortfall with all nations.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Economics, Economist, Economy, election, employ, employment, Growth, home, house, Housing, job, jobless, Labor, market, material, money, real estate, residential, shutdown, US
Comments Off on Ramifications of U.S. Shutdown Ripple outwards to China and Canada
Monday, December 17th, 2018
Article source: ConstructConnect
The tail that is attempting to wag the dog these days is the stock market. With only two weeks remaining in 2018, America’s major stock market indices have moved, at best, sideways versus close-of-year 2017. The Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI) is currently -0.5% relative to its closing level on December 31 of last year. The S&P 500 is -0.9% and NASDAQ, -2.4%.
North of the border, the Toronto Stock Exchange is -9.0% compared with year-end 2017.
The FANG stocks have been leading the retreat in equity prices. Since the summer of this year, the share price of Facebook, which has experienced confidentiality problems galore, is -29.2%; Amazon, the retail sector’s ‘disruptor-in-chief’, is -19.9%; Netflix is -34.1%; and Google/Alphabet, -16.2%. Even Apple has moved out of favor, -26.3%. On August 2nd, Apple became the world’s first trillion-dollar company, but of course that valuation no longer stands.
The Federal Reserve has been paying attention. Earlier, the Chairman of the Fed was adamant that he wanted to see the federal funds rate return to its ‘equilibrium’ or neutral level of 3.00%. Neutrality is when prevailing interest rates are neither too stimulatory nor too contractionary.
The current level of the federal funds rate is in a range of 2.00% to 2.25%. The likelihood is still high there will be another 25 basis-point (where 100 basis points equals 1.00%) increase later in this month of December. The schedule for next year, however, is no longer as firmly established. Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, has stated that future action on interest rates will be ‘data driven’.
By the way, the stock markets also really don’t like the tariff skirmish with China. Whenever there is even a hint of a resolution of that dispute, investors respond ecstatically.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, build, Canada, ConstructConnect, Construction industry, Construction services, Economic, Economics, Economist, Growth, home, US
Comments Off on 13 Mid-December Economic Nuggets
Tuesday, June 20th, 2017
Article source: ConstructConnect
ConstructConnect announced today that May construction starts, excluding residential activity, were +5% versus April. The modest rise fell a little short of the usual percentage change between April and May, due to seasonality, of +8%.
Versus May of last year, nonresidential starts in the fifth month of this year were +2.0%.
Compared with January through May of last year, the year-to-date volume of starts in 2017 has been +1.9%.
The starts figures throughout this report are not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Nor are they altered for inflation. They are expressed in what are termed ‘current’ as opposed to ‘constant’ dollars.
‘Nonresidential building’ plus ‘engineering/civil’ work accounts for a considerably larger share of total construction than residential activity. The former’s combined proportion of total put-in-place construction in the Census Bureau’s April report was 56%; the latter’s was 44%.
ConstructConnect’s construction starts are leading indicators for the Census Bureau’s capital investment or put-in-place series. Also, the reporting period for starts (i.e., May 2017) is one month ahead of the reporting period for the investment series (i.e., April 2017.)
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, Connect, construct, Economic, Economist, home, house, job, market
Comments Off on ConstructConnect’s YTD Starts +2% after May’s Rise of +5%
Friday, June 16th, 2017
Article source: ConstructConnect
The accompanying table records the top 10 project starts in the U.S. for May 2017.
There are several reasons for highlighting upcoming large projects. Such jobs have often received a fair amount of media coverage. Therefore, people in the industry are on the lookout for when jobsite work actually gets underway. And, as showcase projects, they highlight geographically where major construction projects are proceeding.
Also, total construction activity is comprised of many small and medium-sized projects and a limited number of large developments. But the largest projects, simply by their nature, can dramatically affect total dollar and square footage volumes. In other words, the timing and size of these projects have an exaggerated influence on market forecasts.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, build, Connect, construct, ConstructConnect, Economic, Economist, home, house, job
Comments Off on Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. – May 2017
Monday, March 13th, 2017
Article source: ConstructConnect
Further big improvements in America’s labor market statistics at the beginning of this year – with net new jobs creation climbing by almost half a million (+473,000) and the unemployment rate falling to a tight 4.7% − have convinced many analysts that the Federal Reserve will be acting quite aggressively in 2017 to hike interest rates. Where before there was an expectation that the federal funds rate would be lifted two or three times through December, by 25 basis points on each occasion (with 100 basis points equaling 1.00%), the consensus now is for an upward adjustment more frequently, either three or four times.
The Fed is probably hoping to attain, in easy-to-absorb stages over this year and next, a key policy-setting rate close to 3.00%. Nor are stock markets viewing such a prospect with anything like the same amount of dread as in the not so distant past. Share prices have been on a roll that has taken them to all-time highs.
Canada’s most recent employment report had a bottom line figure that wasn’t particularly outstanding (i.e., net new jobs of +15,000 in February), but included in the detail was an impressive increase in full-time staffing (+105,000), with most of the gain (+84,000) coming among what are termed ‘core-aged’ women (i.e., females 25-to-54 years of age).
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, architect, bank, build, Canada, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction, Economic, employment, home, house, job, market, PMI, US
Comments Off on A Dozen Mid-March Economic Nuggets
Friday, November 6th, 2015
Article source: CMDGroup
Tables 1 and 2 accompanying this Economy at a Glance compare labor markets with home prices in major U.S. and Canadian cities.
The reason for conducting this analysis can be summed up succinctly. It shows where job prospects are brightest while home ownership is cheapest.
The labor market ‘composite’ ranking has been based on an assessment of two criteria: year-over-year employment growth (from fastest to slowest) and unemployment rates (from lowest to highest).
Median or average home prices (and their year-over-year percentage changes) can be found at the web sites of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
It would be interesting to draw a line connecting every city to its doppelganger in the tables, but that would yield a confusing blizzard. Therefore, only ones in support of this EAAG’s headline are shown.
From the U.S. table, it’s clear that San Jose (2) and San Francisco (5) have strong labor markets that are accompanied by high home prices – i.e., on the right side of the table, they have corresponding rankings of (1) and (2) respectively.
(more…)
Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, CMD, CMDGroup, home, Housing, housing market, housing price, job, jobless, Labor, market, metro, price, US
Comments Off on Where Job Prospects are Brightest and Home Ownership is Cheapest
|
