Article source: ConstructConnect

• Canadians have entered the pandemic unprepared. In total, they have a record high level of household debt to disposable income, a ratio exceeding 170%. The reason for the debt buildup has been an exceptionally strong residential real estate market.

• For years, speculation concerning a runaway housing bubble in Canada has been noted but, for the most part, brushed aside … although it is worth mentioning that there have been some government-imposed steps to cool overheating home prices. Nevertheless, the roosters have finally come home to cock-a-doodle-doo, but in an unexpected way.

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Article source: ConstructConnect

• The website ‘flightradar24.com’ (dashboard heading ‘Statistics’) records that the number of commercial flights globally (as a 7-day moving average) on March 12, 2020, was 101,297. From mid-March on, there was a rapid falling off, so that by April 12 (one month later), the figure had descended to just 29,442, a giant-sized drop of -71%. (‘Commercial’ flights are defined as passenger, cargo, charter and some business-jet flights. Excluded are glider, helicopter, ambulance and some military excursions.)

• Latest month-to-month airport departure statistics (number of actual flights) from ‘flightradar24.com’ show the following: Dallas-Ft. Worth International Airport, -59%; Chicago O’Hare, -66%; Atlanta Hartsfield Jackson, -69%; Los Angeles International Airport, -72%; New York John F. Kennedy, -81%; Montreal’s Pierre Elliott Trudeau Airport, -82%; Toronto’s Pearson International, -83%; and N.Y.’s LaGuardia, -92%.

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• There seem to be nearly unlimited ways in which society can separate into diverse factions (e.g., along lines tied to income, race, religion, sexual orientation, culinary taste, etc.). There’s one split, though, where the degree of difference exposed by the coronavirus crisis is being magnified to the ‘nth degree’. There are those who have acquired a degree of proficiency in using new high-tech tools, across a wide spectrum of applications, and those who have not. The age composition of the ‘not’ group is inordinately older. (I’m allowed to say that because I’m in the older demographic; they’re my ‘peeps’.)

• Those who are comfortable with digital technology are staying on top of events, be they bad or good, as they unfold. When called upon by employers, they are managing to perform well in non-traditional ways (e.g. working entirely online), most often from their own homes. The counter position taken by those outside the cyber-space loop is that not everyone should need to be instantly accessible twenty-four hours, every day. And that perhaps there’s more joy in not being up on everything.

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Article source: ConstructConnect

• Retail sales by some U.S. shopkeepers in March were prodigiously bad. The revenue rung up by clothing and accessory stores was only half February’s level. Versus the month prior, motor vehicle and parts dealers and furniture stores had their earnings slashed by one-quarter. Moving in the opposite direction, though, were grocery stores, where sales soared by more than a quarter. Rumors of shortages prompted panic buying.
• The first wave of giant job losses in the U.S. (and Canada) occurred in the leisure and hospitality sector. Now it’s being reported that sales by U.S. ‘food services and drinking places’ (i.e., bars and restaurants), were -23% in March compared with February.

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• The mayors of New York and Los Angeles have announced there will be no major league sports events or concert stage shows in their cities until 2021 at least. As Liza Minnelli would sing, “Start spreading the news …”
• When I think of the Big Apple, something that couldn’t happen today comes to mind, the Occupy Wall Street movement. Protesters have been sidelined by the coronavirus and shelter-at-home directives. Ingenuity will always prevail, though. Protesters today, rather than walking a picket line with a placard, are approaching the targets of their disaffection in a vehicle, honking the horn and vocalizing through a lowered window.
• If past momentous economic events are any indication, the current tough times won’t be objectively comprehensible until they’ve been given a proper name (e.g., Great Depression, Great Recession). What’s my nomination for the best handle to describe our present circumstances? … the ‘corona coma’ contraction.

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• Do you remember the Greek financial crisis and how, for years, there was the danger that Greece’s enormous debt would destroy that country and, domino-like, cause the fall of several other nations, as well as some banks? Within the next couple of years, there will be a slew of countries mirroring Greece’s earlier plight.

• In poorer countries without the clout of the Federal Reserve, the European central bank or only a few other major central banks, running up debt and printing money to ease the pain of ‘social distancing’ will carry a cost that will be nigh on impossible to bear. Included in such a list will be several of OPEC’s less prominent members (with Saudi Arabia being most prominent), such as Algeria, Libya, Congo and Ecuador (Venezuela’s already down for the count). They’re being pummeled by a double whammy, the second of which is an extraordinarily low price for the main product they sell and export, oil.

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Article source: ConstructConnect

• The following distills an assessment of the economy made by Moody’s Analytics. In this clock-stopped world we’re living in, all forms of tourism and commuter travel are down, reducing the demand for hotel rooms and refined oil (gasoline), which also means less need for exploration and extraction activity. The official names of the three most affected and interconnected industrial sectors are ‘transportation and warehousing’ (including air and cruise ship transport), ‘leisure and hospitality’, and ‘oil and gas extraction’. If your local economy is disproportionately dependent on one or more of those sectors, the speedbumps along your road ahead have added inches in height.

• Three important sidebars to social distancing have freed up hospital beds for use by coronavirus patients. The stay-at-home edict has meant fewer traffic accidents and a reduced number of road-warrior injuries. Also, violent crime has taken a break. Instances of broken ribs, bruised fists and knife or gunshot wounds requiring medical attention are in remission. And finally, with everyone indoors, sports injuries are at a minimum.

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