Posts Tagged ‘market’
Thursday, March 17th, 2022
Article source: ConstructConnect
(1) The latest inflation figure for the U.S., from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is +7.9%, a several-decades high. It’s the year-over-year percentage change in February’s all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), for all urban consumers. The ‘core’ rate of inflation, which excludes price-volatile food and energy items, is +6.4% y/y. The fact everyone is being ensnared in the strong price advances is captured by the performance of the CPI sub-category ‘food at home’, which has ballooned to +8.6% y/y.
(2) The price of gasoline in February was +38.0% y/y and that was before the repercussions for oil markets from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine made their way to the pump. In early March, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude crossed above $100 USD per barrel for the first time in eight years, dating back to 2014. Petrol’s price per gallon has risen above $4.50 in some states and it seems unlikely that will prove to be the ceiling.
(3) Some relaxation in the headline inflation rate will eventually come from resolution of the notorious supply chain bottlenecks that have tied up cargo shipments at ports and along transportation routes. Also, there will be an easing in general price inflation, as a corollary of slower economic growth, resulting from the increases in interest rates being implemented by central banks. The Federal Reserve has just upped the target range for its federal funds rate to between 0.25% and 0.50%. The Bank of Canada has lifted its overnight rate to 0.50%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Construction, house, Labor, lumber, market, material, money, recovery, residential
Comments Off on 12 Mid-March Economic Nuggets
Friday, September 3rd, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
August’s Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) says that the total number of jobs in the U.S. economy rose by +235,000 in the latest month. A gain of nearly a quarter of a million jobs may sound like a lot, but in the grand scheme of things, it’s rather tame.
Compare it with the month prior’s performance. July was originally reported at +943,000 jobs. That figure has now been revised higher to +1.053 million.
Job creation in August became bogged down. It was probably due to the coronavirus making a comeback, by way of the Delta variant, and threatening a fourth wave heading into the Fall.
The best illustration of how hiring tapped out in August can be found in the ‘leisure and hospitality’ sector. The economy-wide staffing change with bars and restaurants and hotels/motels in the latest month was zero.
Nevertheless, it’s encouraging to note that the year over year change in ‘leisure and hospitality’ employment is a strong +17.4%.
Total employment is now +4.3% y/y; construction employment is +2.7%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economist, Economy, employ, employment, jobless, jobs, Labor, market
Comments Off on Little Meat on the Bones of the August U.S. Jobs Report
Tuesday, July 6th, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
This article consists of seven cluster charts of four graphs each, showing monthly employment levels over the past 20-plus years in 28 sub-sectors of the U.S. economy.
In every sub-sector, there were pandemic-related downturns in jobs counts in the Spring of last year. Nevertheless, it’s easy to see where jobs growth is on a long-term upward path, not to be deterred by a temporary setback.
On the flip side, there are industries where jobs prospects are clearly flagging.
The types of jobs covered are based in: resources; manufacturing; logistics and environmental; desk work (i.e., office-based); institutional (schools and hospitals) and real estate; accommodation, hospitality and entertainment; and ‘new wave’ (security services, couriers, pharma and software publishing).
There are text boxes accompanying each cluster which set out the highlights from the four workplaces featured. But there are some further observations to be made.
In the ‘Resources’ cluster, none of the four sub-sectors is showing a trend towards long-term jobs growth. Rather, the opposite appears to be the case.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economy, employment, Growth, Hospitality & Entertainment, Institutional, job, jobless, jobs, Logistics & Environmental, manufacturing, market, New Wave, Office-based
Comments Off on Exiting the Pandemic, Where the Jobs Are
Tuesday, July 6th, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
June was an excellent month for overall net jobs creation in the U.S., according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Total employment in the nation rose by +850,000 positions.
The construction sector, however, was left out of the bonanza. Staffing among the ‘hard hat’ contingent contracted by -7,000 jobs. The major plus and minus employment shifts within construction occurred with residential specialty contractors (i.e., sub-contractors), +13,000 jobs; nonresidential specialty contractors, -15,000 jobs; and heavy and civil general contractors, -11,000 jobs.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, construct, Construction, Construction industry, jobless, jobs, Labor, lumber, market, recovery, US
Comments Off on Construction Left Out of June’s U.S. Big Jobs Advance
Friday, June 4th, 2021
Big Grin Greets Big Pickup in Youth Employment
In any pre-pandemic month, May’s U.S. total jobs count gain of +559,000 would have registered as outstanding. And I don’t want to belittle the achievement, especially since it soundly beats the previous month’s figure of +278,000.
But as can be seen from Graph 1, even a swing of plus more than half a million appears as only a blip in the context of the month-to-month movements over the past year and a quarter.
The seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate in May improved to 5.8% from 6.1% in April. The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) unemployment rate downshifted to 5.5% from 5.7% the month previously.
Young people are finding employment once again. The SA unemployment rate for individuals aged 16 to 19 brightened to 9.5%. And yes, ‘brightened to 9.5%’ is appropriate wording given that a year ago the SA unemployment rate for those just under aged 20 was 30.7%.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Economic, Economist, Economy, employment, Growth, job, jobless, jobs, Labor, market
Comments Off on U.S. Half Million Jobs Increase in May still only Drop in Bucket
Tuesday, May 25th, 2021
Article source: ConstructConnect
When presenting housing starts for the U.S. and Canada, the Census Bureau and CMHC first seasonally adjust monthly ‘actual’ units and then annualize them, to arrive at what are termed SAAR (seasonally adjusted and annualized) figures. ‘Annualizing’ takes the monthly number and projects it out over 12 months.
The January-April average of the four monthly SAAR figures for the U.S. so far this year is 1.594 million units, +18.2% when compared with January-April 2020’s average. Since the Fall of last year, a mini new housing construction boom has been underway in America.
Canada’s January-April average of monthly SAAR starts has been 295,700 units, +50.5% versus the comparable average managed in the first four months of last year. In Canada, the boom in residential groundbreakings isn’t speaking tentatively, rather it’s shouting.
Graph 1
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, Construction, Economic, Housing, market
Comments Off on Booms in U.S. & Canadian Housing: One Tentative, the Other Boisterous
Thursday, July 18th, 2019
Chinese Economic Slowdown
China’s latest quarter-over-quarter ‘real’ (i.e., after adjustment for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate was its slowest since 1992. 2019’s second quarter advance, annualized, was only +6.2%. That level of increase anywhere else in the world would be greeted with celebration, but for China, it’s a relative crawl. While the +10% to +12% gains of the mid-00s have become a thing of the past, +7% or more has still been commonplace in the Middle Kingdom of late. The Chinese economy would greatly benefit from an end to its trade dispute with the U.S. which has seen sales to American consumers significantly curtailed by tariffs.
Meanwhile U.S. Economy Roars
At least with respect to employment, the U.S. economy continues to roar. One of the best indicators of the strength in the jobs market is the ‘weekly initial jobless claims’ data series. It measures first-time applications for unemployment insurance. The figure soars when the economy sinks. As Graph 1 shows, initial jobless claims in the middle of the 2008-2009 recession skyrocketed to 665,000. But they have now been less than 300,000 – i.e., the benchmark usually adopted to denote a solid jobs recovery – for 226 weeks in a row (i.e., more than four years). They even dropped below 200,000 twice in April of this year.
The length of time from high to low in the initial jobless claims curve has been 10 years, exactly corresponding with the duration of the current upbeat economic cycle. When searching for an early warning sign that the economy is faltering, be wary of initial jobless claims rising back to 300,000.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, China, ConstructConnect, Economic, Economist, employment, Growth, Housing, market, material, money
Comments Off on 7 Mid-July Economic Nuggets, With Emphasis on Jobs Markets
Thursday, June 13th, 2019
U.S. Jobs +75,000 in May, but Flat After Revisions
Article source: ConstructConnect
The latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) records a gain of +75,000 in total U.S. jobs in May. The +75,000 month-to-month increase was the second lowest so far this year. February’s figure was worse at +56,000.
What’s hidden, however, unless one digs a little deeper, is the fact that total U.S. employment in May really didn’t increase at all. The total jobs number now being reported for May, at 151.095 million, is the same as the total jobs number that was published a month ago for April. The explanation lies in the fact that April’s number has been revised down by -75,000.
The national unemployment rate in May stayed extremely tight, at 3.6%, the same as in the previous April. The participation rate likewise remained steady, at 62.8%.
The composition of May’s +75,000 jobs performance was an interesting combination of only +8,000 in goods production, +82,000 in the private services-providing sector and -15,000 with government. The public sector’s jobs loss was at the state (-10,000) and local (-9,000) levels, as Washington made a minor upwards staffing adjustment (+4,000).
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Tags: Alex Carrick, ConstructConnect, employ, employment, job, jobless, jobs, Labor, market
Comments Off on May’s Weakening in U.S. Jobs Growth and the Inverted Yield Curve
Friday, March 8th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
February’s Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered the kind of U.S. total employment change, month to month, that we have become unaccustomed to seeing. Net jobs growth was quite weak, at only +20,000. It’s been 17 months since the figure was comparably low, +18,000 in September 2017.
Over the last several years, the month-to-month jobs gain has usually been at least +175,000, often exceeding +200,000. In the first month of this year, January, it was +311,000.
On the brighter side, the unemployment rate in the latest month improved to 3.8% from 4.0% in the prior period.
There was only one major industrial sector with a substantial pick-up in nominal number of jobs in January, ‘professional and business services,’ +42,000. The staffing increases were evenly and widely spread among segments of the sector (e.g., accounting, design, computer, and help-wanted services).
‘Education and health services’ added just 4,000 jobs, but that was because education services declined by -19,000 jobs. ‘Health care and social assistance’ wasn’t shy about hiring, lifting its combined payroll by +23,000.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, construct, Economy, employment, Growth, job, jobless, jobs, Labor, market
Comments Off on A Chill in U.S. February Employment Numbers, Canada’s Performance Perkier
Monday, March 4th, 2019
Article source: ConstructConnect
The table and maps accompanying this article feature comparisons of highway, street and roadwork construction starts in all the states, plus District of Columbia, in two ways: (1) by dollar-volume level, taking the annual average over the past two years (2017 and 2018); and (2) per capita (i.e., the dollar volume in (1) divided by each individual state’s population).
In some states, there can be considerable variation in the dollar volume of roadwork starts from one year to the next. Therefore, it seems only fair to smooth the series out a bit, and hence the reason for utilizing a latest-two-years average.
On the left-hand side of Table 1, there is a ranking of all states and D.C. according to their level of roadwork construction starts. Sixteen states have exceeded an annual average of $1.0 billion over the past two years and they are highlighted in Map 1. Washington state, at $995 million, and New Jersey, at $980 million, just missed the cut.
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Tags: Alex Carrick, Canada, construct, ConstructConnect, Construction, Construction industry, Construction services, Economist, Economy, market
Comments Off on Rankings of States and Provinces by Roadwork Construction Starts
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